PGA TOUR Odds: World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Preview at El Camaleon Golf Course

Written By John Haslbauer on October 31, 2022
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Happy Halloween! Just in time for Dia De Los Muertos, the PGA TOUR continues on to Riviera Maya, Mexico for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, sponsored by Pitbull (just kidding). The new title sponsor, which took over for OHL last year, is a mouthful, but despite the verbose name, we’ll get to see the pristine resort property that is Mayakoba. It has attracted several of the top players in the world, who also sit atop the PGA TOUR odds.

I’ve had the opportunity to play El Camaleon last year, and it is as tight and positional as can be. Distance is not necessary here, and players who can keep their tee shots and approaches away from the constant barrage of water canals, native jungle, and over-sized bunkers, should fare well as history has shown. It’s a good week to zero in on Course & Comp Course History, as the translatable profile of accuracy on other positional set ups has proven to be a strong indicator of success at this event.

Now let’s get into the key facts and info about El Camaleon Golf Course before betting World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba odds.

WORLD WIDE TECHNOLOGY CHAMPIONSHIP AT MAYAKOBA ODDS: THE FAVORITES

To compare PGA TOUR odds in legal sports betting states, as well as other World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba offerings, scroll to the bottom of this post. Here were the opening odds on favorites Monday morning.

S. Scheffler
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+900
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+950
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+1000
V. Hovland
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+1000
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+950
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+1000
T. Finau
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+1400
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+1400
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+1800
B. Horschel
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+1600
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+2000
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+1800
A. Wise
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+1600
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+2000
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+2000
C. Morikawa
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+2000
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+1600
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+1800

WORLD WIDE TECHNOLOGY CHAMPIONSHIP AT MAYAKOBA ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

Expectations are modest when it comes to Fall Swing fields that require international travel, but with those tempered expectations comes a top-heavy field to be excited about. Scottie Scheffler headlines the field of 132 in his first start since seceding World No. 1 honors to Rory McIlroy. Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, and Billy Horschel represent an elite class of five players inside the OWGR Top-20 who will be teeing it up this week in Mexico.

Unfortunately, as a consequence from the growing divide between the PGA TOUR and LIV, local favorites Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz will be noticeably absent from this event for the first times in their careers. Jose De Jesus Rodriguez, the No. 440 ranked golfer in the world, is the highest rated Mexican golfer in this field, which won’t exactly get the local fans overly excited for their country’s biggest golf event of the year.

Viktor Hovland will make a push for the elusive three-peat at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba after winning each of the last two years. Other past champions returning to Mexico this week include Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Charley Hoffman, Harris English, and John Huh.

INTRODUCTION TO EL CAMALEON GOLF COURSE

El Camaleon Golf Course was designed by Greg Norman in 2006 and has been the host course for this event each year since 2007. Over those first 15 years, the event has gone through several title changes: The OHL Classic, Mayakoba Classic, and since last year, the World Wide Technologies Championship at Mayakoba.

Relative to other Fall Swing events on the PGA TOUR schedule, Mayakoba has done a solid job of attracting respectable fields. As far as resort courses go, you’d be hard pressed to find a more luxurious setting than here on the coast of Riviera Maya, so the player-friendly conditions off the course deserve some credit for attracting world class players each year.

I can’t personally vouch for the amenities off the course, but I have had the pleasure of playing a round at El Camaleon Mayakoba last year, so it’s always a stop I look forward to watching the pros take on. I did not play the Champions tees when I was there, but it is clear that this property – tucked within natural Mexican jungle with canals interweaving throughout – does not have much more than the 6,982 scorecard yardage to expand to. The course plays short, but offers a constant challenge of lurking OB areas between the dense jungle and water hazards. It is more guarded from the wind than most other coastal resort courses, but there are still a handful of holes that will be wind-effected. With Paspalum grass throughout, there are few “bad lies” to be had on this course, particularly around the greens, so history has proven this is a course where elite, accurate ball-strikers can consistently thrive. If you want to read more about my experience playing Mayakoba, feel free to check out last year’s Preview!

How It Breaks Down

A week after watching the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal GC, we head from the second shortest course on the PGA TOUR schedule, to the fifth shortest. El Camaleon Golf Course measures 6,982 yards as a par-71, and has proven to be a rare layout on the PGA TOUR which removes the possibility of bombers over-powering with distance, and has instead rewarded the most accurate players on TOUR, both off the tee and on approach.

There is some deceptive distance on the scorecard at Mayakoba, as the average yardages of the four par-3s and three par-5s are both well below the PGA TOUR average. Three of the four par-3s measure under 155 yards, with the 116-yard 4th hole playing as one of the shortest on the PGA TOUR, and a strong birdie opportunity when winds are down. The three par-5s are each reachable with a good drive, and should reward consistent players off the tee with ample birdie opportunities.

On the other hand, the course will show its teeth with five par-4s measuring over 450 yards, an unusual make up for a course that measures under 7,000 yards. Additionally, players are often asked to lay up off the tee in order to keep the ball in bounds, leaving a decent mix of wedge shots and mid-irons on approach.

Like other resort-style international set ups, El Camaleon features Paspalum grass throughout from tee box to green. Paspalum is known to be a soft, spongy, and slow surface, and tends to level the playing field for strong and weak putters alike. As always, it’s a good week to reference performance on other comparable Paspalum layouts in order to identify coastal resort specialists, as well as precise ball strikers with proven course history and the ability to putt well on slow greens.

EL CAMALEON GOLF COURSE SPECS

  • Yards: 6,982
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Greens: Paspalum
  • Architect: Greg Norman
  • Comp Courses: Waialae CC, Pebble Beach, Harbour Town, Coco Beach, Sea Island GC, Sedgefield CC, Port Royal GC, Corales
  • Historical Cut Line: -1
  • Median Score 4-round Score: -10 (’22), -9 (’21), -6 (’20), -11 (’19), -6 (’18)
  • Recent Past Winners: Viktor Hovland -23 (’22), Viktor Hovland -20 (’21), Brendon Todd -20 (’20), Matt Kuchar -22 (’19), Patton Kizzire -19 (’18)
  • Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
El Camaleon Golf Course (6,982 Yards)

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Despite winning in each of the last two events at Mayakoba, Viktor Hovland still does not hold the honor of No. 1 in Course History, as he missed the cut in his first two appearances here. And ironically, the three players with the most aggregate strokes gained at Mayakoba have never won here. The top-10 players in SG: TOT at Mayakoba are Adam Long, Billy Horschel, Russell Knox, Danny Lee, Viktor Hovland, Emiliano Grillo, Brendon Todd, Maverick McNeal, John Huh, and Scottie Scheffler.

Viktor Hovland sets an interesting example for how we should treat Course History at Mayakoba. On the one hand, a resume of two wins and two MCs over four career starts seems pretty random, however, he is an elite, young player who’s improved every year on TOUR, and is capable of winning events with his ball striking talent alone. When looking to build out a player pool for this week, I’ll be favoring a longer list of players with proven success, as there are plenty of players who possess the skillsets of accurate ball striking needed to find success at Mayakoba.

There’s a fairly long list of 14 players who have avoided missing the cut at this event with a minimum of three appearances over the last five years: Billy Horschel, Danny Lee, Brendon Todd, Adam Long, Matt Kuchar, Joel Dahmen, Maverick McNealy, Patton Kizzire, Scott Piercy, JJ Spaun, CT Pan, Tyler Duncan, James Hahn, and Chris Kirk. This long list would suggest that players who fit the course have been able to routinely channel the same game plan, and it’s no surprise to see this list favors a group of players who are top-tier in Driving Accuracy with a proven track record on other short, positional courses.

Eight players in this week’s field have recorded multiple top-10 finishes over the last five years here: Billy Horschel, Danny Lee, Brendon Todd, Adam Long, Emiliano Grillo, Viktor Hovland, Aaron Wise, and Harris English. Just outside that mark, Maverick McNealy, Matt Kuchar, and JJ Spaun have each recorded multiple top-15 finishes over the same span.

Course Comps

Whenever we get to a short positional course, the same usual suspects tend to materialize as comps for the game plan that lies ahead. What makes Mayakoba unique from the other short, positional PGA TOUR tracks are the Paspalum grass, commonly found on island resort courses, and severity of the penalty for exaggerated misses off the tee, with ample OB hazards and bunkers throughout the course.

Of the list of positional courses on the PGA TOUR schedule, it’s Waialae CC, Pebble Beach, and Harbour Town which stand out as the closest comps for what Mayakoba demands, each in resort settings, putting extreme emphasis on Driving Accuracy with sustained success from top approach players, particularly with wedges inside 150 yards. All courses also feature a balance of easy and difficult scoring holes, falling a step shy of pure birdie fest status.

With conditions being equal, there are plenty of similarities that can be made to last week’s Bermuda Championship host, Port Royal GC. Brendon Todd proved that the same skillset of accurate ball striking and a hot putter translate, winning both events back to back in the 2020 season. It’s difficult to draw anything too conclusive from last week’s results however, as the high sustained winds we saw at the Bermuda Championship are far less likely to materialize again in this guarded set up just off the coastline in Mexico.

On a more tertiary tier, I’m also looking to courses like Sedgefield CC, Sea Island Resort, Corales GC, and Coco Beach, as each have produced correlated leaderboards in resort course setups that favor the same profile of accurate ball striking.

Combine performance across this list and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Seamus Power, Jason Day, Emiliano Grillo, Brendon Todd, and Harris English.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER BEFORE BETTING PGA TOUR ODDS

  • Driving Accuracy / SG: OTT
  • SG: APP
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Par-4: 450-500
  • Prox: <150 Yards
  • SG: P (L36, Slow Greens)
  • SG: T2G (<7,200 Yards)
  • Course & Comp Course History

Approach play is always king, and that’s exacerbated on a course like El Camaleon that forces conservative tee shots and mitigates the advantage from bombers. Here, we should see the full field funneling their approach shots from a similar range. Looking at the best approach players heading into this week, the top-10 in terms of SG: APP include Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Tom Hoge, Scottie Scheffler, Mark Hubbard, Lee Hodges, Erik van Rooyen, Davis Riley, and Adam Svensson. With shorter approach shots expected, the top-10 wedge players from inside 150 yards are Russell Henley, Matt Wallace, Tom Hoge, Ben Griffin, Russell Knox, Mark Hubbard, Paul Haley II, Ben Martin, Henrik Norlander, and Zac Blair.

The layout of the holes at El Camaleon will produce a similar emphasis off-the-tee, particularly from those who can consistently keep it in the fairway. The top-10 players in Driving Accuracy who are also above-average in SG: OTT are Ryan Armour, Aaron Rai, Russell Henley, Troy Merritt, Collin Morikawa, Jim Herman, Joel Dahmen, Hayden Buckley, Lucas Glover, and Kelly Kraft.

At this stage of the Fall Swing with two full months under our belts in the 2023 season, it’s a good time to look at immediate trending form from the new class of KFT grads and DP World Tour qualifiers. The top-10 players in SG: TOT to start the 2023 PGA TOUR season are Taylor Montgomery, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam, Maverick McNealy, Justin Lower, Dean Burmester, Brendon Todd, Hayden Buckley, Viktor Hovland, and Danny Willett.

The ideal player for this week should rank above-average in Course & Comp Course History, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yards), SG: APP, SG: OTT, Driving Accuracy, Opportunities Gained, and SG: P (Slow Greens). There are just eight players who fit that criteria: Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Billy Horschel, Kevin Streelman, Erik van Rooyen, Justin Rose, and Kramer Hickok.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: JOEL DAHMEN

Joel Dahmen is an easy guy to root for, whether you click his name on the PGA TOUR odds board or not. It’s even easier to make a case to back him this week at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. He’s been hot out the gates to start his 2023 PGA TOUR season, gaining strokes tee-to-green in each of his first four events, including top-16 finishes at both the Sanderson Farms and ZOZO Championship. He rates second only to KH Lee in SG: T2G since the Fortinet Championship.

The high finishes have come despite a cold putter, and while putting metrics on Paspalum tend to be a bit of a mystery with island resort events rarely equipped with ShotLink data, we at least know that Dahmen is capable of winning an event on this surface, picking up his only PGA TOUR victory at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021.

Dahmen’s game is synonymous with accuracy, joining Chez Reavie as the only two players this week to rank top-20 in Driving Accuracy, Opportunities Gained, and Course History at Mayakoba. He looked to be at his best on short, coastal resort courses last season, finishing T12 at the RBC Heritage and T5 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Dahmen has never missed at cut in five career appearances at Mayakoba, and with hot ball striking form to open the 2023 season, he’s the ideal player fit to attack this course. He’ll be a fixture on my betting card this week, as he looks to build on a career best T6 finish at Mayakoba in 2019.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE WORLD WIDE TECHNOLOGY CHAMPIONSHIP AT MAYAKOBA

I’m excited any time I get a chance to watch a tournament on a course I’ve had a chance to play, so although the Fall Swing TV coverage will once again make it difficult for us to follow all the action, I’m still looking forward to the sparse windows we are able to watch in. The vibe on the course will undoubtedly be different without the presence of Carlos Ortiz and Abraham Ancer this time around, but there’s enough star power in Mexico to still keep casual golf fans interested. Mayakoba is a picturesque property and a great backdrop for championship golf, as Viktor Hovland sets out to make history in his bid for a three-peat.

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the PGA TOUR odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Opportunities Gained, Driving Accuracy, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: OTT, Prox: <150, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses), and SG: P (L36 & Slow Greens).

Model Favorites

According to my model, Collin Morikawa claims the top overall position. He’s a sensible fit on any positional course that rewards accurate ball striking while taking away any distinct advantage from longer hitters. Morikawa will be making his Mayakoba debut this week, but enters in great form, ranking top-5 in SG: T2G, SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, and SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses) leading in.

After Morikawa, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland, Tom Hoge, Emiliano Grillo, Billy Horschel, Aaron Wise, and Kevin Streelman.

When PGA TOUR odds are released on Monday, I’ll be tempted to go to Collin Morikawa, as he should open behind Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler on the odds board. But if his number is too short, I’ll also look to Russell Henley, Emiliano Grillo, and Joel Dahmen in a secondary tier.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck betting PGA TOUR odds!

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COMPLETE PGA TOUR ODDS: WORLD WIDE TECHNOLOGY CHAMPIONSHIP AT MAYAKOBA

Use this table to find the best PGA TOUR odds across legal sportsbooks in your state.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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