PGA TOUR Odds: Shriners Children’s Open Preview at TPC Summerlin

Written By John Haslbauer on October 3, 2022
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Next stop, Sin City as the PGA TOUR odds open for the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin. In store, we have a continued dosage of birdies to be had, as is consistent with the Fall Swing; however, with the Presidents Cup now comfortably in the rear view, the field has gotten a nice face lift since Mackenzie Hughes just overcame at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

At TPC Summerlin, birdies are a commodity, and players will need to eclipse -20 to put themselves in contention, as each of the last four champions have done so. The desert conditions will level the playing field in terms of driving distance, opening the door for more accurate ball strikers to thrive, and funneling approaches into the key proximity range of 100-150 yards. Though not tree-lined or explicitly positional, players who have found success on these types of courses have tended to fair well at TPC Summerlin.

Now let’s get into the key facts and info about TPC Summerlin before betting Shriners Children’s Open odds.

SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

To compare PGA TOUR odds in legal sports betting states, as well as other Shriners Children’s Open offerings, scroll to the bottom of this post.

P. Cantlay
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+600
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+650
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+650
S. Im
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+900
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+1400
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+1200
M. Homa
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+1400
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+1800
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+1600
A. Wise
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+1800
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+2200
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+2200
JH Kim
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+2200
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+2200
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+2200

SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

The Shriners Children’s Open presents our first formidable field of the 2023 season, as the Presidents Cup, being sandwiched between the first two, had caused a majority of the top players on TOUR to embrace the off-season. This week, a total of 11 Presidents Cup players will be teeing it up in Las Vegas.

World No. 4, Patrick Cantlay, would be the player to watch in this field regardless of the course being played, but that’s exacerbated this week on a track he has dominated like no other. In four career appearances at the Shriners Children’s Open, Cantlay has a win, two runner ups, and a T8 under his belt. Just two starts removed from his BMW Championship victory, he’s expected to be the prohibitive favorite once again in 2023.

Cantlay is joined by Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Tom Kim, Mito Pereira, Aaron Wise, Seamus Power, Tom Hoge, Brian Harman, Harris English, and KH Lee to represent a very respectable Fall Swing field of 11 OWGR top-50 players.

Sungjae Im will be defending his 2022 title, and is joined by Martin Laird, Patrick Cantlay, Ben Martin, and Ryan Moore as former Shriners Children’s Open champions returning to the field this week.

INTRODUCTION TO TPC SUMMERLIN

TPC Summerlin was established in 1991 and has hosted the Shriners Children’s Open each year since the event changed sponsors in 2008. The course sits about 10 miles off of the Las Vegas Trip and has become a regular visit for the growing population of PGA TOUR players who have taken up residency in Sin City.

Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Ryan Moore, and Alex Cejka highlight a list of players with strong Las Vegas ties who have regularly channeled their local knowledge for repeated success at this event. This year, the fresher faces in the field who call Vegas home and can use that familiarity to their advantage with the uniquely thin air and elevation changes includes Aaron Wise, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Harry Hall, and Garrick Higgo. Harry Hall, a UNLV alum, delivered a career-best T8 finish at this event last year, further validating the trend of strong play from the locals.

After last year’s Shriners Children’s Open, TPC Summerlin overwent a renovation which overhauled the turf from tee to green, though maintaining the same layout, yardage, and contours on the greens. The renovation was intended to better withstand the desert climate, and should be more receptive for the players. While still the same old mix of Bentgrass greens and Bermuda rough and fairways, they’ve updated with new varietals, that should look and feel slightly different from years’ past. All in all, the changes are primarily cosmetic, and if a players has consistently thrived or struggled in years past, these upgrades should not cause that to change this year.

How It Breaks Down

TPC Summerlin is a par-71 which plays to 7,255 yards on the scorecard, however the true distance is significantly shorter, which lends itself to a longer list of shorter-hitting champions over its years as host of the Shriners Children’s Open. This is due to the drier desert air and wider, firm fairways, which allows for more rollout on accurate drives.

There are 14 holes which feature an average Birdie Rate above 15%, one of the highest compositions on TOUR. There are a concentration of six par-4s between 400-450 yards, and par-4 scoring overall is amongst the easiest on TOUR.

Players will need to take advantage of Birdie-or-Better opportunities on the three par-5s to keep pace with birdie rates this week. The par-3s are the course’s best defense with three out of four measuring over 195 yards and featuring a scoring average over-par.

There are four holes with water hazards in play at TPC Summerlin, which also features a heavy dosage of natural hazards surrounding the fairways to penalize free-swinging, wayward drives off the fairway. This course features fairways and greens well above the TOUR average in size, and with the desert air improving average driving distance across the board, it sets up well for players to play aggressively.

Traits And Recent Notable Facts

Comparing TPC Summerlin to the rest of the regular PGA TOUR stops, it measures easier than average across most metrics. It ranks bottom-5 in difficulty across metrics like SG: TOT, SG: OTT, Par-4 Scoring, Driving Distance, SG: P (15+ Ft), and Greens In Regulation. It should come as little surprise that a course which features wide open fairways and over-sized greens is both easy to score on and difficult to separate from the field off-the-tee. With that said, I’m still more partial to the accurate hitters who can continually pound the center of fairways, more so than I would be on a course with thicker rough to catch and stop near missed off the tee from reaching the hazards.

If there’s a defense to TPC Summerlin, it is the around-the-green complexes, which have regularly ranked top-10 in SG: ARG difficulty from both the fairways and bunkers. The lies themselves are not especially daunting around these greens, but the size of these greens presents a unique challenge of longer-than-usual chip shots needed when approaches inevitably miss their target. So while this does set up to be a pure birdie fest, it’s not a course you want to completely dismiss around the green play at.

TPC SUMMERLIN COURSE SPECS

  • Yards: 7,225
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Grass: Bent Greens (Dominator), Bermuda Rough & Fairways (Bandera)
  • Architect: Bobby Weed
  • Comp Courses: TPC Scottsdale, Stadium Course, Summit Club, Waialae CC, Colonial CC, TPC Southwind, Sedgefield CC, Harbour Town
  • Historical Cutline: -3
  • Median Four-Round Score: -11 (’22), -13 (’21), -14 (’20), -11 (’19), -2 (’18)
  • Past Winners: Sungjae Im -24 (’22), Martin Laird -23 (’21), Kevin Na -23 (’20), Bryson DeChambeau -21 (’19), Patrick Cantlay -9 (’18)
  • Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
TPC Summerlin (7,255 Yards)

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

As noted earlier, Patrick Cantlay is head and shoulders above this field, not only in OWGR rank and preceding formbut also in Course History, finishing top-10 in all four prior appearances. He’s followed by Sungjae Im, Ryan Moore, Adam Hadwin, Matthew NeSmith, Martin Laird, Adam Schenk, Beau Hossler, Aaron Wise, and Scott Piercy to round out the top-10 in Course History at TPC Summerlin.

Course History has proven to be sticky at the Shriners Children’s Open, and should be a factor in handicapping this event, as there is a long list of players who have found repeated success each time back in Las Vegas. Jim Furyk has won this event three times over his career, and Kevin Na and Martin Laird have two wins apiece within the last 15 years.

There are eight players who have avoided missing the cut at this event with a minimum of three appearances over the last five years: Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Adam Hadwin, Beau Hossler, Matthew NeSmith, Gary Woodland, Cam Davis, and Matt Kuchar,

Eight players in this week’s field have recorded multiple top-15 finishes over the last five years here: Cantlay, Im, Martin Laird, Chesson Hadley, Hadwin, NeSmith, JJ Spaun, Aaron Wise, Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, Peter Malnati, and Si Woo Kim.

Course Comps

Performance in desert golf conditions tends to be a strong indicator of future success, whether we’re looking at Scottsdale, Palm Desert, or Las Vegas. The through lines include firmer, faster conditions and dry air which mitigates any disadvantage from the shorter hitters in the field, and instead rewards control off the tee. Desert golf conditions also remove thick, penal rough and instead insert water and natural hazards, which penalizes wayward bombers and creates a unique challenge around the greens compared to a typical parkland United States golf course. For these reasons, I’ll be looking closely at each of the regular desert golf courses on the PGA TOUR schedule as comps, including TPC Scottsdale, Stadium Course, and Summit Club.

The prototypical short, positional courses on the PGA TOUR rotation like Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC, Harbour Town, Colonial CC, and TPC Southwind each have a strong correlation of overlapping success amongst players with top course history like Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, Martin Laird, and Jim Furyk.

Combine performance across this list and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Andrew Putnam, Keith Mitchell, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Kim, and Chris Kirk.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER BEFORE BETTING PGA TOUR ODDS

  • SG: APP
  • Fairways Gained / Good Drives Gained
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • Prox: 100-150
  • SG: SG / SG: P (L36)
  • P4: 400-450
  • SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses)
  • Course + Comp Course History

Looking at the best approach players heading into this week, the top-10 in terms of SG: APP include Chez Reavie, Lee Hodges, Mito Pereira, Tom Kim, Mark Hubbard, Stephan Jaeger, Aaron Wise, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Davis Riley. Honing in more granularly on the 100-150 yard range, which has proven to be a decisive range for factoring winners in past years, the top-10 wedge players are Tom Hoge, Cam Davis, Matt Wallace, Mito Pereira, Austin Eckroat, Brian Stuard, Paul Haley II, Max McGreevy, Mark Hubbard, and Ben Martin.

The Shriners Children’s Open routinely produces some of the lowest scores under par, which makes this another crucial week to zero in on the top birdie-makers who can capitalize on easy scoring conditions. The top-10 in Birdies or Better Gained are Patrick Cantlay, Cam Davis, Mito Pereira, Adam Svensson, Kurt Kitayama, Ben Griffin, Emiliano Grillo, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, and Taylor Pendrith.

As opposed to the Sanderson Farms last week, which had started to build a strong correlation of success from longer hitters, the dry air and firm conditions should cater to players who are most in control of their golf ball off-the-tee, as these conditions should produce added driving distance from players who are usually shorter hitters. With that said, players who excel in Good Drives Gained, and who are above-average in Driving Accuracy should set up well to generate ample scoring opportunities. The top-10 players to in these combined categories are Mito Pereira, Sungjae Im, Brendon Todd, Chez Reavie, Ryan Armour, Tom Kim, Doug Ghim, Emiliano Grillo, Martin Laird, and Troy Merritt.

The ideal player for this week should rank above-average in Course History, Good Drives Gained, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yards), SG: APP, and SG: SG. There are just nine players who fit that criteria: Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Aaron Wise, JJ Spaun, Lee Hodges, JT Poston, Matt Kuchar, David Lipsky, and Alex Noren.

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week, there is a notable jump in the importance of SG: SG at TPC Summerlin, which is skewed in part by the 14.2 strokes putting Kevin Na needed to gain in order to win in 2020, however the notion of needing to putt well and get up and down for par saves on any missed greens in regulation does make sense on an easy-scoring layout such as this.

Conversely, SG: OTT is far less indicative of success at this event, with lack of distance not being a detriment to this field and the rough not being especially penal in instances where players do miss the fairway.

pga tour odds - stats
Top 10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at TPC Summerlin

Only 10 players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Kim, Aaron Wise, JT Poston, John Huh, Mark Hubbard, Lee Hodges, and Kurt Kitayama.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: MATT KUCHAR

pga tour odds - matt kuchar

Jim Furyk, Kevin Na, and Webb Simpson have six wins between them at the Shriners Children’s Open. None are in the field or listed in PGA TOUR odds, but if there’s one man who embodies the “old man game” of fairways, greens, and a ton of made putts on repeat, it’s Kuch.

Matt Kuchar had a quiet 2022 season at the age of 44, but it included three top-10 finishes, two notably coming at the Sony Open and RBC Heritage, two of the top positional comps to TPC Summerlin. While his standing amongst the top players on TOUR has trended in the wrong direction since 2019, it’s clear that his bread & butter of accuracy off-the-tee and elite short game still hasn’t left him, as he continues to show up on shorter courses. Across the list of desert and short, positional comps I looked most closely into this week, Kuchar ranks No. 4 in this field in SG: TOT over his last 36 rounds.

Kuchar opened the 2023 season with a promising T12 finish at the Fortinet Championship where he gained an impressive 7 strokes T2G. Over the last 36 rounds, he joins Max Homa and Brendon Todd as the only three players in this field to rate out top-50 in both Fairways Gained & Good Drives Gained and top-25 in SG: Short Game & SG: P. That combination should set Kuchar up well to contend this week, as he looks to continue to build on a streak of five consecutive made cuts at this event.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2023 SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN

The Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin presents a layout that is going to pull you in a number of different directions when putting a betting card together. There’s a clear class of elite names at the top (Cantlay, Im, Homa, dare I say Tom Kim) who will be tempting to bet on a short card, however birdie fests like these tend to breed more randomness and cater to a longer card of outright bombs. When looking for birdie-makers, you can naturally lean on the new wave of young Korn Ferry Tour graduates who play more aggressively, but this event has proven over time that experienced veterans have had more of a leg up. I’ll wait for odds to be released on Monday, but do see myself reacting to the market and letting the value dictate how my card is constructed.

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the PGA TOUR odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, and Prox: 100-150, followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses), and SG: Short Game.

Model Favorites

According to my model, Sungjae Im is poised to repeat his 2022 title, as he claims the No. 1 overall spot, entering in excellent form (No. 1 in SG: T2G, SG: BS, and SG: OTT), and passing the eye test at the Presidents Cup.

After Sungjae, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Mito Pereira, Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Adam Svensson, Brian Harman, Aaron Wise, and Cam Davis. I really did think Mito would have fled to LIV by this point, but alas, my time losing money betting him in PGA TOUR odds is not quite over just yet. He’ll be a fixture on my card, but I’ll also be eying players like Tom Kim, Brian Harman, Aaron Wise, and Matt Kuchar when odds open on Monday.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck betting PGA TOUR odds!

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COMPLETE PGA TOUR ODDS: SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN

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John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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