PGA TOUR: Fortinet Championship Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on September 14, 2022
pga tour odds

The 2022-23 season kicks off in wine country this Thursday with the TOUR making its first stop at Silverado Resort & Spa for the Fortinet Championship. The early events in the Fall Swing don’t exactly carry the same prominence as the heart of the season, but it’s always a great litmus test to see how the new class of rookies will stack up in PGA TOUR odds after their Korn Ferry Tour promotions.

There is not a clear cut formula to finding success at the Fortinet Championship, as we’ve seen accurate plodder like Chez Reavie, Ryan Moore, and Kevin Streelman gain an edge by holding these narrow fairways just as regularly as we’ve seen bombers like Cameron Champ and Max Homa over-power the course with distance. Par-5 Scoring will be crucial this week, and players who are most dialed from inside 150 yards should position themselves best to pick apart this sub-7,200 yard course.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2023 Fortinet ChampionshipClick the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

The Fortinet Championship will not feature the most top-heavy leaderboard in the world of golf this week. LIV Chicago will have it beat with only Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Corey Conners representing the OWGR top-40 in PGA TOUR odds this week. That’s an ideal set up for golf bettors however, as the event appears to be wide open, with plenty of viable longshots in the 100-1+ outright range.

I did consider betting Max Homa at what seemed to be fair value in the mid-teens for the defending champion, but ultimately preferred to roll out a longer card to kick off our first sweat of the season. While there are many avenues to pick apart this golf course, I honed in on the players who have the best combination of Driving Distance, Par-5 Scoring, Prox: <150 Yards, and SG: Short Game on Poa greens. Subjectively, I think there’s a bit of a “Presidents Cup Snub” narrative in play this week, and generally leaned away from those on the Presidents Cup roster in what appears to be a clear lookahead spot.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s the same old structure for PGA TOUR odds in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available:

Before Theegala’s rise to prominence in the second half of his rookie season, I’d made a rule for myself to always back him in his native state of California. The Pepperdine alum continues to show a strong bias towards Poa greens, and has looked comfortable in this event to start his career with finishes of T14 and T47 under his belt. Fresh off a trip to East Lake, Theegala enters the Fortinet Championship in better form than his last two appearances, and should carry some extra motivation after being passed over for Kevin Kisner on next week’s Presidents Cup roster. Theegala ranks top-25 in SG: APP, Par-5 Scoring, Scrambling Gained, and SG: P (Poa), which profiles him perfectly to make a run in Napa.

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available:

Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, and Max Homa have each taken an aggressive, driver-first approach to over-power Silverado en route to their victories over the previous three years, and with negligible rough surrounding these narrow fairways, Pendrith should be able to follow a similar game plan. Pendrith, who ranks top-5 in Driving Distance in this field, has been a model of consistency on bomber courses, already racking up top-15 finishes at the BMW Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic, Barbasol Championship, Farmers Insurance Open, and Bermuda Championship in is rookie season. With newfound confidence following his selection onto the Presidents Cup team, Pendrith is amongst the top talents in this week’s field.

Emiliano Grillo

My Bet: +4500

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Coastal Elite Emiliano Grillo has one career PGA TOUR victory, and it came on these grounds at the 2015 Safeway Open. In true Grillo fashion, it came despite losing 1.5 strokes putting that week. Inexplicably however, he’s since managed to flip the putter from his biggest liability to his biggest asset, gaining strokes putting in each of his last five starts on the 2022 season. Dating back to the John Deere Classic, Grillo ranks top-10 in SG: P over the last 2.5 months. Grillo has gained strokes tee-to-green in all seven career appearances at the Fortinet Championship, so if we’re to believe he’s made a fundamental correction to his putting woes, he stacks up well to pick up his second career win in Napa.

Jason Day

My Bet: +8000

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I had modest expectations for Day’s odds this week after profiling as my spotlight player of the week, and as expected, he’s been priced far down the board despite the long-term pedigree, and a 2022 season that wasn’t as bad as it seemed. Day finished inside the top-25 in 35% of his starts in 2022 and put himself in legitimate positions to contend at the Farmers Insurance Open and Wells Fargo Championship. He’s still capable of winning a tournament with his short game alone (especially on Poa), and a second shot course which masks errors off the tee for longer hitters is the perfect recipe to kick of a clean slate in the 2023 season.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +11000

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If Patrick Rodgers is in the field at a course that favors bombers, does not penalize inaccuracy off the tee, and rewards aggressive birdie-makers on Poa greens, I am always going to bet him. The stats at Silverado have backed up that profile fit, as the Stanford alum ranks top-15 in course history, including two T6 finishes, one coming at last year’s event. It was an up and down 2022 season, but he’s knocked on the door enough to keep me coming back in search of his first career win.

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +11000

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Can’t talk bombs without mentioning Jaeger. After a sputtering start to his 2022 season, the German finished strong, ranking No. 3 in this field in SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds. The putter has come and gone in flashes, but it’s most encouraging to see his consistency on approach (No. 3) and around the green (No. 4) on a second shot course like Silverado. With top-15 finishes in two of his last three starts, it’s hard to believe he’s available beyond 100-1 odds, but I’m happy to jump on the value.

Chris Gotterup

My Bet: +14000

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I’m always going to be drawn to Gotterup on a course where Cameron Champ has found success. Both players possess the same skillsets of explosive driving distance, flashes on approaches, and the ability to catch a streaky putter. The hype may have died down a bit since his T4 at the John Deere Classic, but if that’s the case, I’m happy to buy low on a great course fit at discounted odds.

FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Cam Davis

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

I tried to find a way to get Cam Davis on the outright card, but he was ultimately the odd man out in the 30 to 45-1 odds range. Instead, I’ll settle for my exposure on Thursday only, on what appears to be a significant misprice on a player with explosive birdie-making ability.

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

The recent high finishes to close out the 2022 season have gotten me excited about Jaeger’s outright prospects, but it’s his No. 1 rank in Par-5 Scoring that draws me to him in the FRL market as well. With four reachable par-5s at Silverado, the players who can consistently capitalize on these opportunities will be best suited to post a low number. Coincidentally, he also gets a favorable draw as the first group out on Thursday.

Callum Tarren

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Callum Tarren came into his own at the end of the 2022 season, just sneaking himself into the FedEx Cup Playoffs to secure his TOUR card for 2023. He should benefit now from resting up for a few weeks and securing the freedom of stability on TOUR for the year ahead. He’s had his struggles on Poa greens, but it’s a favorable fit for the Englishman from tee-to-green.

Michael Gligic

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

While a majority of this field will be kicking off the rust of a 1+ month layoff, Gligic comes in hot off back-to-back top-5 finishes over the last two weeks on the Korn Ferry Tour. Ranking top-25 in Par-5 Scoring and Prox: <150, this shapes up to be another solid fit for Gligic to continue the momentum.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Sebastian Munoz is busy preparing for his Presidents Cup debut at Quail Hollow, so FRL auto-bet understudy honors instead go to Patrick Rodgers, who we know can capitalize on Poa greens with his aggressive style of play.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +175

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It’s hard to believe we’re still being offered plus odds on Taylor Pendrith in a field as bereft of talent as this one at the top of the board. Pendrith is currently on a ridiculous stretch of six top-15 finishes over his last seven starts, and is poised to build on that as he enters another great course fit for his game.

Top-20 Finish: Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +400

Best Odds Still Available:

While I’m naive enough to continue to spend my hard earned money on Patrick Rodgers to pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory time and time again, I have the wherewithal to back that up with the safety net of a top-20 placement, knowing the odds of him converting a win aren’t in our favor. Everything about this golf course suits Rodgers’ game well, and I expect him to see the weekend despite the fairly long odds.

Top-20 Finish: Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +440

Best Odds Still Available:

Like Rodgers, I’m going all in on Jaeger this week at these odds. Where Jaeger lacks the proven results at Silverado, he makes up for it with his current form and encouraging string of high finishes at comp courses. The trending approach and around-the-green play should keep him in the mix as he continues to knock on the door for his first career PGA TOUR win.

Top-40 Finish: Ben Griffin

My Bet: +440

Best Odds Still Available:

It wouldn’t be a proper Fortinet Championship card without throwing a flyer one of the Korn Ferry Tour graduates. Griffin has a very limited PGA TOUR sample size, but was excellent last we saw him at the Wyndham Championship, where he finished T4. He earned an automatic promotion to the PGA TOUR after finishing 8th in the Korn Ferry Tour season long standings, with the consistency of nine top-20 finishes. He profiles as a very strong putter with above average distance, so we’ll get to see how that translates to the big leagues come Thursday.

FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR odds handicapping. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. Follow TheLines on Twitter

PGA TOUR ODDS: TO Win Fortinet Championsihp

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Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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