PGA TOUR Golf Sleepers: 4 Potential WM Phoenix Open Longshot Picks

Written By John Haslbauer on February 7, 2023
pga tour golf sleepers

The greatest party in golf is here this week as we continue our handicapping of 2023 WM Phoenix Open odds, AKA Wasted Management, AKA The People’s Open at TPC Scottsdale. Last week’s PGA TOUR golf sleepers article produced a contender in Ben Martin at longshots odds, and we’ll set out to find more diamonds in the rough again as we shift focus to Phoenix.

Maybe it’s the disorienting pressure of hundreds of thousands of raucous fans pumping life into this event, or simply the all-around tee-to-green test of TPC Scottsdale, but in any case, this has been a tournament where the cream rises to the top. The list of past champions and regular contenders is littered with those who have steadily contended in Majors, THE PLAYERS, or Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup atmospheres. That set up is not especially conducive to betting longshots, however there are still high upside sleepers in this field worth consideration for placement bets and your DFS lineups.

Let’s get to our 2023 WM Phoenix Open longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

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TPC Scottsdale is a course that rewards elite ball-striking first and foremost. With lateral natural desert hazards and water threatening throughout this course, players will need to be in complete control of their driver off the tee, while those with above-average driving distance have been able to set up more scoring opportunities with shorter clubs into this firm and fast greens.

As a 7,216 yard par-71, TPC Scottsdale is about average in terms of total yardage, but plays shorter than the scorecard suggests in firm and dry conditions at elevation. Comp Course history at other desert courses like TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course, and The Summit Club have proven predictive, as have other risk-reward TPC layouts like TPC Sawgrass and TPC Twin Cities. Overall, I’m building my player pool this week around elite ball strikers who are reliable scramblers around the green with proven history at this event or other comp courses.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my WM Phoenix Open preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our WM Phoenix Open picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.


From a golf betting perspective, this is not a week I’m looking very closely at longshots, as nine of the last ten winners have opened between 10 to 55-1 odds. With that said, the below plays still offer great value in the placement betting market.

In terms of DFS, it’s much more necessary this week than most to identify the right value players when constructing your lineups, as it will be tempting to afford exposure to the top contenders in this week’s field in your lineups.

Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Corey Conners (, $7,700)

Generally speaking, this is not a week I’m giving “longshots” much of a chance to contend. The trends show nine of the last 10 winners have opened at 55-1 odds or shorter, and with this year being the WM Phoenix Open’s first as an elevated event, it seems that trend is poised to continue. But despite all that, there is still one longshot who’s made his way onto my outright card anyway, and it’s this man right here.

There is no one way to attack TPC Scottsdale, however a profile of elite ball striking has been the common thread amongst contenders here over the years. I’ll always look Conners’ way at a ball-striker’s course, as the Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. It’s even more encouraging to see that Conners has found early success on these greens, gaining strokes putting in two of his first three appearances at this event. He’s made it through the cut in each trip to TPC Scottsdale, highlighted by a T17 in 2021.

Playing in the Presidents Cup last September may have helped Conners further acclimate to the crowd atmosphere in store this week. He also suits the developing narrative set by Justin Rose last week, as a consistent veteran who is beginning to trend in 2023 (four consecutive top-25s) and in search of his first win since 2019.

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Brendan Steele (, $7,200)

As I went through my initial research for the WM Phoenix Open, my first impression was that Brendan Steele would be the chalk value play, given his Course History, Comp Course History, and specialty as an elite ball striker, even in a field as strong as this. The DFS price at $7,200 is more than fair, and projected ownership doesn’t look to be over the top yet, so I’m a full go on Steele at TPC Scottsdale.

Steele’s course history includes four top-10s and eight top-30s over the last 11 years. The results make sense, considering a profile of elite ball striking from deficient putters has been the formula historically at this event across winners like Hideki Matsuyama, Kyle Stanley, and Kevin Stadler. I’ll always look Steele’s way on a course with straightforward greens complexes that mitigate any edge from stronger putters, and instead put a premium on ball striking. Steele ranks top-10 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP, which will help him to avoid the persistent hazards that threaten around both the fairways and greens.

The intangible I’m looking for from players inside the arena at TPC Scottsdale is an ability to perform in a high pressure atmosphere, and Steele has displayed poise in big moments, finishing top-15 at the PGA Championship and THE PLAYERS last season. Contending into the weekend at The Farmers in his previous start, Steele is in great form heading into a course he’s shown consistent success at over his career.

Andrew Putnam (, $7,000)

In a field as top-heavy as this one with so many elite options, a safe, high floor value player is going to be a must for DFS lineup construction purposes. Amongst the options at $7K or below this week, Putnam would have to be my choice as the safest bet to find the weekend in Scottsdale.

A Fall Swing heaters has continued on into 2023 for Putnam, who’s already piled up six top-30 finishes and two top-5s this season. One of the shortest hitters on TOUR, he’ll enjoy the added distance boost in store at elevation in TPC Scottsdale’s firm and fast conditions. Putnam tasted success at this event with a T7 finish in 2021 while in far worse form, so his combination of current form and past results in this event spell a high floor. Putnam ranks top-15 in Good Drives Gained, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling Gained, and SG: P, all good signs for a potential top-30 or top-40 push.

James Hahn (, $6,300)

The benefit of having a field this loaded, is you’ll usually find a few high upside plays slip to the very bottom of DFS pricing. In Hahn’s case, he’s a bit too volatile for me to want to wager a placement bet on, but I’m optimistic about his boom potential as a DFS salary saver.

Hahn enters this week in the midst of an 8-event stretch in which he’s gained strokes on approach. That consistency with the irons is hard to come by this far down the board, and is a crucial skillset to have at TPC Scottsdale. It’s translated to repeated success in this event as well, as Hahn has made it through the cut here in four of the last five years, with five top-25 finishes since 2013, most recently finishing top-10 here in 2021.

Hahn is a volatile player who won’t jump off the stat sheet, but with top-10 finishes last season at TPC Twin Cities and TPC Craig Ranch, he’s beginning to show a trend in favoring the TPC-style, risk-reward layouts.

Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!

WM Phoenix Open Odds

Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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