The elevated events are in the rear view, at least for one brief week, as the Florida Swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens for the 2023 Honda Classic at PGA National. Let’s get to our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards.
While a bit unfair to expect this week’s field to hold up against last week’s festivities at the Genesis Invitational, there’s still plenty of appeal for us bettors, as we don’t have to worry about the dominant force that is Jon Rahm this time around. Yes, Sungjae Im is a presence to worry about at the top of the board, but when the odds-on favorite is in the midst of a 16-month winless drought, that’s the ideal time to fire off some longshot bets.
Click on odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state.
COURSE INTRODUCTION
Standing at 7,125 yards, PGA National has far more bite to it than the scorecard yardage would suggest. With many forced layups from doglegs, water hazards, and bunkers throughout the course, reliable ball-striking is a necessity at the Honda Classic. With this being the first leg of the Florida Swing, I’m looking for players with proven performance on similar Bermuda greens as a key combo stat with SG: Ball Striking when looking for longshots in this field.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Honda Classic preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Honda Classic picks, with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.
PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: HONDA CLASSIC
From a golf betting perspective, it’s hard for me to justify backing any of the names at 25-1 or under this week, which means I’ll be spreading my exposure across a longer list of longshots. All four plays below have already been placed on my outright betting card for this week.
In terms of DFS, the field lacks the depth needed to feel comfortable dipping too deep into the $6K range on Draft Kings, so I’m looking for a more balanced lineup build with many viable, high upside options in the mid-$7K range.
Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 Honda Classic. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Hayden Buckley (, $7,600)
The Sony Open has served as an encouraging signal for better results to come here, as four of the last five winners of the Honda Classic had finished top-20 at the Sony Open earlier that year. The correlation makes sense considering Waialae CC is the last pure Bermuda set up on the schedule before the Florida Swing begins, and both courses are exposed to high winds and fall under 7,200 yards with many forced layups off the tee.
This is all encouraging for Buckley, who shined with his best performance to date at the 2023 Sony Open, finishing runner up to Si Woo Kim. Buckley should welcome the return to this part of the country, as the Tennessee native now resides close by in Florida. He’s finished top-20 in each of his last four appearances between the Sony Open and Sanderson Farms, which begins to paint a clear picture for his bias towards Bermuda layouts.
His history at the Honda Classic is not as inspiring, but never before has he entered this tournament as the No. 1 player in the field in terms of SG: OTT. Control on tee shots is crucial at PGA National, so I’m expecting a far better showing from Buckley here in 2023.
- Join TheLines free golf betting Discord channel with more than 4,300 community members discussing sports betting 24-7-365.
Joseph Bramlett (, $7,500)
It no surprise to see Joseph Bramlett rate out well across all ball striking metrics, especially in a field as weak as this. Rating top-15 in SG: OTT, Driving Distance, and SG: APP, Bramlett is statistically a top-5 ball striker in this field. Of course, a Luke List-like profile has meant some frightening weeks on the greens and a capped ceiling when incapable of gaining strokes putting.
We may be seeing a turn of the corner in Bramlett’s game this year, however, as the once erratic player is now showing more consistency, carrying a streak of six consecutive made cuts, including three top-15 finishes over that span. He’s putted level to the field in each of his last two starts at the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, cracking the top-15 in both events. In fact, he’s finished top-15 in each of the last four occasions in which he’s just putted level to the field.
I’m much more open to backing the lesser putters on difficult tracks like PGA National, as two-putt pars on a majority of these holes will still gain an edge on the field. Bramlett ranks No. 1 in Greens In Regulation and top-10 in both Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling Gained, all encouraging signs for a high floor at PGA National.
Dylan Frittelli (, $7,100)
It was a disappointing early exit for Frittelli at the Genesis Invitational last week, missing the cut on the number despite gaining over 2 strokes tee-to-green. He’ll be relieved to leave Poa greens behind for the Florida Swing, as he ranks top-15 in SG: TOT on Bermuda Comp Courses and has gained strokes putting in seven of his last eight appearances on Florida Bermuda courses.
Frittelli has found success at this event already with two top-20 finishes over five career appearances, most recently finishing T16 here in 2022. That success has come despite some inconsistency off the tee at PGA National, so with Frittelli gaining strokes off the tee in each of his last four starts, he should feel even more confident this time around.
With two top-5 finishes in Majors since 2020, he’s proven more capable of stepping up in difficult conditions than most others in this price range. Top-30 in my model this week, Frittelli ranks above-average in every key stat category I looked for at PGA National, and makes for an appealing top-20 bet and DFS core play at this price.
Kyle Westmoreland (, $6,300)
In a field as devoid of talent as this, you’ll be hard pressed to find many encouraging signals this far down the board. With that said, Kyle Westmoreland is the only player in the $6K range on DraftKings who I want some exposure to.
The Air Force grad continues to fly under the radar despite posting two top-30 finishes over his last six starts. As a PGA TOUR rookie, I expect Westmoreland’s stock to continue to rise as he acclimates to the weekly grind, but it’s encouraging to see how consistent he’s been with his irons, gaining strokes on approach in seven consecutive measured events.
PGA National is not a pure bomber’s course, but with Westmoreland ranking top-15 in both Driving Distance and Greens In Regulation, he should be able to take less club off the tee and play to his numbers on approach, which is a luxury the shorter hitters in this field cannot tap into. He’s a longshot in every sense of the word, but Westmoreland is fully capable of making the cut and cashing a top-40 placement bet on the heels of his T29 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!
HONDA CLASSIC ODDS
Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc.
