The PGA TOUR brings forth yet another elevated event, this time in Charlotte, North Carolina for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Club will return to its usual place as host of this event after a one year hiatus due to hosting the Presidents Cup. Due to its sheer length, Quail Hollow has served as ideal prep for major-like conditions. It has produced a winning score beyond -12 just once since 2016. Can any PGA TOUR golf sleepers emerge this week?
Difficult scoring conditions seldom produce longshot winners, but Quail Hollow has had its fair share of surprises anyway. Three winners over the last 10 years sported 500/1 opening odds. With a positive outlook for longshot prospects at this event in the past, we’ll look to dig for some diamonds in the rough in this article ahead of the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship.
COURSE INTRODUCTION
Quail Hollow is yet another difficult course on the PGA TOUR schedule. The longest hitters will enjoy a distinct reward and leg up on the field through distance alone. With eight par 4s measuring over 450 yards, there are very few wedge shots to be had on this layout. Instead, players can expect a repeatable formula of drivers and long irons throughout.
With such a specific skillset needed, we have a clear path to identifying value this week. Simply hone in on under-priced bombers proficient with their long irons and above-average to the field with their short game on fast Bermuda greens.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Wells Fargo Championship preview. Let’s get to our Wells Fargo Championship picks, with a focus on longshots and PGA TOUR sleepers for your DFS lineups.
PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
From a golf betting perspective, an out-of-form Max Homa, James Hahn and Derek Ernst have each paved the way for the hopes of longshots to come at the Wells Fargo Championship. All won at 500-1 odds or longer. There will be more opposition this time around with the upgrade to elevated event status. But, I’m comfortable taking on long odds here for players with the right profile to attack this layout.
In terms of DFS, the depth of an elevated event typically breeds more viable options at the bottom of the board. So, similar to my outright approach, a handful of players look like suitable fits to attack this course despite short prices.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf sleepers and longshots for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Taylor Moore (, $7,600)
The week of the Valspar Championship, Taylor Moore featured in this same article and later placed on my betting card…as a top-20 finisher. Fast forward several weeks later and the same circumstances will apply for the 2023 Valspar champion, as he’s one of my favorite top-20 bets again.
The Arkansas Razorback has shown a strong affinity towards Bermuda greens early into his career already, ranking No. 4 in the field in SG: Putting on this surface. He’s caught fire with the flatstick recently, averaging more than 5 strokes gained putting per tournament over his last four events on Bermuda greens.
Though making his Quail Hollow debut this week, Moore’s game profiles perfectly. He’s the only player to rank top 20 in Proximity: 175+, SG: P (Bermuda), and 3-putt Avoidance. With five consecutive top-40 finishes entering this week, Moore ranks No. 15 in my model. He will be a fixture in my DFS lineups.
Adam Scott (, $7,300)
Remember him? You’d have to go back to the 2022 BMW Championship to find the last time Scott played himself into contention on Sunday at a PGA TOUR event. Despite that capped ceiling in 2023 however, Scott has quietly maintained one of the longest made cut streaks on the PGA TOUR. He’s now gone 20 consecutive starts since his last MC at the 2022 PGA Championship.
Scott has not played in the Wells Fargo Championship since 2018. However, he did get off to a hot start at Quail Hollow at the onset of his career, finishing top 25 in each of his first four appearances from 2005-2008. More recently, Scott was a serviceable veteran on the International Presidents Cup team, delivering a respectable 2-3 record against the American juggernauts.
Looking across the comp courses, Scott has consistently excelled on all of the PGA TOUR’s other long and challenging stops like Torrey Pines, Riviera CC, and Bay Hill. We should expect Scott to continue to lean on his distance, touch around the greens, and elite lag putting to extend his lengthy made cut streak even further this week.
- Join TheLines free golf betting Discord channel with more than 4,300 community members discussing sports betting 24-7-365.
Adam Schenk (, $7,000)
Not the flashiest of plays. But Adam Schenk does everything you want to see from an under the radar salary saver at Quail Hollow. He’s picked up some added distance this season (No. 33 in Driving Distance) and dramatically improved his short game, ranking top 10 in this field in SG: P (Bermuda), SG: Short Game, and Scrambling Gained. With so much resistance from tee-to-green in store at Quail Hollow, that combination of distance and elite short game can lend itself to a fairly reliable floor.
With top-30 finishes on comp long and difficult courses across the Arnold Palmer Invitational, WM Phoenix Open, and Farmers Insurance Open already this season, Schenk has proven he’s up to the task of climbing these top-heavy leaderboards in difficult conditions. A T9 finisher at this event last year at TPC Potomac, Schenk is a sensible placement bet this week as he sets out to improve on his career best T13 finish at Quail Hollow in 2019.
Joseph Bramlett (, $6,900)
It shouldn’t take much convincing to get onboard with Bramlett at this price at Quail Hollow. Last week, Bramlett was a fairly popular play at the Mexico Open due to his sheer distance advantage. A week later after an impressive T10 finish, his price has dropped nearly $1K on DraftKings.
Of course, a dramatically improved strength of field is to blame for the price dip. But, Bramlett’s performance in Mexico was still far from a fluke. With finishes of T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T9 at the Houston Open earlier this year, there’s a developing trend of Bramlett playing at his best on long and difficult setups. He’s unlikely to win a tournament with his putter, but the former ball-striking specialist has recently made dramatic improvements to his short game. Top 30 in my model this week, Bramlett joins Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland as the only four players in this field to rank top 30 in Driving Distance, Proximity 175+, and Par-4 Scoring: 450+.
Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc.
