PGA TOUR Golf Sleepers: 4 Potential Mexico Open at Vidanta Longshot Picks
It’s Jon Rahm’s event to lose this week at the 2023 Mexico Open, according to the oddsmakers. Whether you agree with his prohibitive favorite status will likely determine your tolerance for backing PGA TOUR golf sleepers at the Mexico Open. All of Rahm’s competitors will enjoy an odds boost with Rahm soaking up so much perceived win equity.
Even those who think a repeat Rahm win is a foregone conclusion (I’m not among them) must land on the right DFS value plays in order to afford a $12,000 Rahm on DraftKings. So, this article will help identify the best sleeper and longshot candidates ahead of the 2023 Mexico Open.
Vidanta Vallarta features unique setup as a par 71 with only nine par 4s, four par 5s, and five par 3s. Combining that mix of holes with prevalent gusting winds, sticky Paspalum turf, and sea-level elevation, and this course plays true to the 7,456 yardage. As such, Vidanta Vallarta lived up to its narrative as a bomber’s paradise in the inaugural 2022 Mexico Open. It’s fair to expect a similar advantage for for long drivers and elite long-iron players again.
Shorter hitters like David Lipsky, Brandon Wu, and Chez Reavie each found themselves in the mix at this event last year. But, the overwhelming majority of contenders like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Cameron Champ seem to justify the conventional wisdom that the longest hitters will generate the most scoring opportunities.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Mexico Open preview. Let’s get to our Mexico Open picks, with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.
PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: MEXICO OPEN
From a golf betting perspective, some may find it wise to take a shorter number and hedge against a dominant performance from Jon Rahm or Tony Finau in the Winner Without market. Ultimately, I decided to press my luck with standard outright bets, but the presence of these two titans in such a thin field makes it all the more daunting to search far down the board for longshot bets.
In terms of DFS, Rahm should command the lion’s share of ownership regardless of his price. Thus, you’ll need to get comfortable backing some of the more discounted players in the $6K range if you want to play him. Narratives will naturally inflate the ownership of the bombers in this week’s field. That may create opportunity to buy low on shorter hitters off the tee who still excel across other important stats for Vidanta Vallarta.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf sleepers and longshots for the 2023 Mexico Open. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Dylan Wu (, $7,500)
The first time I wrote up Dylan Wu this season, I made the mistake of assuming he was in some way related to Brandon Wu. Somehow, however, the two 26-year-old Wus who joined the PGA TOUR in the same 2022 rookie PGA TOUR class are coincidentally not related whatsoever. It took me a year or two to realize Miles Bridges and Mikal Bridges aren’t actually related either despite coming out of the same NBA draft class. So yeah, I’m a slow learner, but had to clear my conscience.
Getting back to the Mexico Open, Dylan Wu looks to be one of the best values on DraftKings for the $7,500 price tag. He ranks No. 9 in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds. Comparatively, Brandon Wu ranks No. 34 over the same span, but got priced $800 higher on Draft Kings.
Dylan Wu did not make the cut at last year’s Mexico Open. But, he enters this week in significantly better form. He’s made it through the cut in each of his last seven stroke play events, including a T10 at the Honda Classic and T16 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. While not a bomber, Wu is the only player in this week’s field to rank top 10 in SG: TOT, Birdies or Better Gained, Prox: 200+, and Sand Saves Gained. That makes him one of the highest floor options for his price.
Charley Hoffman (, $7,200)
There are not many viable longshots in a field as thin on depth as this one. Charley Hoffman is as far down the board as I’m willing to go for an outright this week. Fresh off an ace and a T19 finish alongside Nick Watney at the Zurich Classic, Hoffman has shown that his OWGR top-60 form from two years ago may not be completely gone. He’s now piled up three top-22 finishes over his last seven starts and ranks top 10 in both SG: Ball Striking and SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds.
A cold putter has held Hoffman in check thus far this season. But, Paspalum greens have proven to be a welcomed sight for struggling putters historically. Winner of the 2015 Mayakoba Classic, Hoffman is no stranger to Paspalum. Ranking No. 33 in Driving Distance and No. 6 in Prox: 200+, Hoffman’s game perfectly suits a longer track like Vidanta Vallarta.
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Ben Taylor (, $6,800)
Ben Taylor has a long way to go with his erratic driver in order to become a more consistent threat on TOUR. But, while that makes it more difficult to contend on positional layouts like Harbour Town and Innisbrook Resort, an open course with generous fairways like Vidanta Vallarta should mitigate those struggles from the tee box.
Taylor joins Jon Rahm as the only two players who rank top 40 in Prox: 200+, Driving Distance, SG: Short Game, Sand Saves Gained, and SG: P, suggesting he has the all-around skillset to hang around on an open, second-shot golf course. He also ranks No. 3 in terms of Par-3 Scoring, an encouraging sign for capitalizing on the surplus of par 3s at Vidanta Vallarta.
Brent Grant (, $6,800)
Brent Grant has emerged as my guilty pleasure rookie to back this season. As a bomber who plays aggressively and has shown early on to specialize on long, open coastal courses, I see a lot of Patrick Rodgers in his game and like to play Grant situationally on courses where Rodgers has had success. That makes me excited about his prospects at the Mexico Open this week.
Grant is elite in Proximity from 200+ yards (No. 14), Driving Distance (No. 10), and Birdie-making (No. 6), the only player in this week’s field to rank top 15 in all three important categories for Vidanta Vallarta. He’s already shown an affinity for long courses which suit that profile, finishing T25 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T8 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Taking down Jon Rahm may be asking too much for the rookie. But, I still like Grant’s upside as a top-20 and FRL consideration.
Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!
MEXICO OPEN ODDS
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