The PGA TOUR returns to Texas for one final week of action before the second major of the year next week. TPC Craig Ranch is next on tap to host the AT&T Byron Nelson for the third time since replacing Trinity Forest in 2021. Last week’s PGA TOUR golf sleepers article identified Adam Scott as a top value ahead of his T5 finish at the Wells Fargo, and we’ll look to keep that momentum going into McKinney, Texas.
KH Lee paved the way for longshot hopes at this event in its first two years at TPC Craig Ranch. We’ll look to dig for some diamonds in the rough in this article ahead of the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.
TPC Craig Ranch is not the most remarkable venue on the PGA TOUR, lacking a unique identity, memorable holes, or noteworthy finishes over its first two years hosting the PGA TOUR. With that said, we know that this type of course — with its length, forgiving fairways, and straightforward green-side complexes — likely boils down to a birdie-fest and provides a slight advantage for those with above-average driving distance.
New this year, TPC Craig Ranch will convert one of its short par 5s into a long par 4. With that change, it will now play to a 7,414-yard par 71. In the grand scheme of things, the change is minor. The course will continue to favor the best players on approaches from beyond 200 yards. Score relative to par may be down as a result compared to last year, but this is still a layout that will reward aggressive birdie makers, similar to what we would typically see throughout the Fall Swing.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my AT&T Byron Nelson preview. Let’s get to our 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson picks, with a focus on longshots and PGA TOUR golf sleepers for your DFS lineups.
PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: AT&T BYRON NELSON
From a golf betting perspective, KH Lee has laid the groundwork for longshots to contend at TPC Craig Ranch, winning despite inconsistent form and odds beyond 100-1 in each of the first two contests here.
In terms of DFS, a late withdrawal from Jordan Spieth creates some softer pricing on DraftKings, with plenty of viable options for birdie-fest conditions in the mid-to-low $7K range.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf sleepers and longshots for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Sam Stevens (, $7,600)
The last time Sam Stevens headed to a long, wind-exposed TPC course in Texas, he found himself in this article as a top sleeper option for the 2023 Valero Texas Open. After a solo second finish there at TPC San Antonio, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can follow the same formula for similar results at TPC Craig Ranch.
Born in Fort Worth and a graduate from Oklahoma State University, Stevens is plenty familiar with this area of the country and should feel at home in these conditions. Stevens has gained strokes from tee-to-green in nine consecutive starts dating back to the Farmers Insurance Open. Over that stretch, he’s posted four top-15 finishes, which have all come on 7,400+ yard, wind-exposed courses.
Ranking top 25 in Birdies or Better Gained, Driving Distance, and SG: Ball Striking, Stevens will be a fixture on my betting card and DFS lineups this week.
Eric Cole (, $7,400)
Eric Cole was the biggest climber in my model relative to DraftKings price and betting odds this week, ranking No. 7 overall. Cole is one of just eight players in this field to rank top 50 in SG: APP, Birdies or Better Gained, SG: Putting, Comp Course History, and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions). These are the primary characteristics I look for whenever we get to a putting contest week. Cole is the only player amongst that group priced below $8,000 on DK.
Like Stevens, Cole has been consistent from tee-to-green in his rookie season, positive in seven of his last eight starts. Over that span, he’s impressed with a runner-up at the Honda Classic, T5 at the Mexico Open, and T15 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His consistency from tee-to-green and ability to spike with the putter present great upside for this price.
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Nate Lashley (, $7,200)
Lashley has sustained a long career on the PGA TOUR by capitalizing on generous courses off-the-tee and easy scoring conditions. In addition to his lone PGA TOUR win at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Lashley has 12 career top-15 finishes and eight have come on comp courses to TPC Craig Ranch. Coco Beach, host of the Puerto Rico Open, is the course I believe shares the most in common with TPC Craig Ranch due to its length, generous fairways, exposure to gusting winds, and easy overall scoring conditions. Lashley has finished top 10 in all three career appearances at the Puerto Rico Open, including a T3 most recently in 2023.
In his debut at TPC Craig Ranch last year, Lashley looked impressive, gaining across all four major SG categories en route to a T17 finish. With three consecutive top-40 finishes entering this week, he presents a high floor in DFS and is a player I’m eyeing in both the outright and placement betting markets.
Kevin Roy (, $6,500)
Personally, I think there are enough viable options in the $7K range on DraftKings to avoid the $6K players entirely, especially in a field like this that lacks the overall depth of an average PGA TOUR event. But at the same time, you really can’t fade Scottie Scheffler this week, and he’ll be hard to afford if not rostering at least one $6K player. So, if I had to pick the one $6K player, it would be Kevin Roy.
Roy is best in the areas I believe matter the most for TPC Craig Ranch: SG: APP (No. 12), Prox: 200+ (No. 15), Par-5 Scoring (No. 24), and Driving Distance (No. 39). He put those skillsets on display in his latest start at the Mexico Open where he finished T18. Finishing top 50 in four of his last six starts, Roy seems to be turning a corner in his rookie season now, and presents as a strong value to finish top 40 this week.
Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!
AT&T BYRON NELSON ODDS
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