4 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: 2023 BMW Championship

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Written By John Haslbauer on August 16, 2023
PGA golf tour sleepers

The BMW Championship tees off Thursday, August 17 in the greater Chicago area. The 50 best golfers on the PGA TOUR this year are all here for the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, including Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy. That creates opportunities to capitalize on PGA TOUR golf sleepers in DFS and beyond. John Haslbauer lays out his top longshot picks for BMW Championship odds below.

The playoffs continue on to round two, with a field of the top-50 players from the 2023 FedEx Cup standings set to tee off this Thursday at the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club.

Could any potential longshots emerge from BMW Championship picks? We’ll see Olympia Fields back in action for just the second time since 2003. This event and venue gave us fireworks in 2020 when Jon Rahm won in a playoff over Dustin Johnson in walk off fashion, and is a course that should fairly challenge the field with a stern test from tee-to-green.

Below we will look at five possible 2023 BMW Championship picks among sleepers in this week’s golf oddsClick on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

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COURSE INTRODUCTION

As a 7,366 yard par-70, Olympia Fields CC embodies many of the characteristics we’d typically expect from a Major championship venue, making it an ideal stop for the penultimate event of the 2023 season. With its thick, penal rough, firm and fast Bentgrass greens, and concentration of long par-4s and 5s, birdies will come at a premium here. A score of -4 was good enough to win the last time Olympia Fields hosted this event in 2020, so we should expect elite ball strikers who can consistently scramble to avoid bogeys to rise to the top of the leaderboard this week.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my BMW Championship preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our BMW Championship picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

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POTENTIAL PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

From a golf betting perspective, a limited field of just 50 players diminishes odds across the board and creates very little opportunity to exploit longshot value. With that said, surprise names like Sebastian Munoz, Lanto Griffin, and Brendon Todd played into the top-10 the last time we saw Olympia Fields in action, so longshots are not immune from finding success here.

In terms of DFS, it can be difficult to find leverage in limited field events, but the below players stand out to me from a value perspective to anchor lineups with more top-heavy exposure.

Below, find my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2023 BMW Championship. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Byeong Hun An (, $7,600)

At Olympia Fields, I’m looking for players who use their driver as a weapon, and can lean on it consistently to gain strokes off the tee. Of all players who rank inside the top-15 in SG: OTT in this field, An is available at the cheapest price in both betting odds and on Draft Kings. Considering he ranks No. 4 overall in that category, he stands out to me as one of the best values on the board, which is not always easy to find in a field of just 50 players.

Driver aside, An has continued to trend upward in this closing stretch of the season with two top-3 finishes over his last four starts between the Wyndham Championship and Scottish Open. Similar to Lucas Glover’s late come up, an equipment change to the broomstick putter has helped An turn his season around, as he’s now gained strokes putting in five consecutive events.

After an impressive T12 debut at Olympia Fields in 2020, An is a player I’ll have plenty exposure to in DFS this week, given his prior course history, current hot form, and overall fit for the course.

Keegan Bradley (, $7,100)

Keegan Bradley has not mixed words when talking about his motivations to make the USA Ryder Cup team, but a mediocre T43 showing at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week has forced his back against the wall and pressed a do-or-die scenario in Chicago. I’m not one to make decisions solely on perceived motivations, but it’s clear Bradley is desperate to impress this week.

Motivation aside, it’s the performance on comp courses that have made me gravitate to Keegan Bradley in the outright market this week. He ranks No. 6 in terms of total strokes gained on comp courses to Olympia Fields, a credit to his five total top-10 finishes across the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Farmers Insurance Open, Wells Fargo Championship (at TPC Potomac), and U.S. Open (at The Country Club) over the last two years. His best finish over that span came at TPC Potomac, which I believe to be the best PGA TOUR comp to Olympia Fields for its similar hole layout, agronomy, and challenging scoring conditions.

With Keegan’s irons and putting continuing to trend, it would not surprise me to see him pick up his second career BMW Championship win and third victory of the 2023 season this week.

Denny McCarthy (, $6,700)

In difficult scoring conditions, I would ideally like to concentrate my exposure to in-form players on the rise who are trending with their ball striking. While that is not what we’re getting with McCarthy leading into this week, the price discount feels too steep to ignore given all he’s accomplished this season.

Prior to his last three disappointing starts, Denny was on a stretch that included eight top-30s over nine starts. One of the best putters in the world, it’s hardly a fluke to see McCarthy lean on the strength of his greatest asset even when the rest of his ball striking form is in question. Twice this season, he’s finished inside the top-10 while gaining less than two strokes from tee-to-green. One of those instances came at the Memorial, a great comp course to Olympia Fields which also features penal rough on Bentgrass greens and difficult scoring conditons.

I’m not quite there on the outright, but still see plenty of upside for McCarthy to improve on his mark of six top-10s already this season.

Adam Schenk (, $6,500)

Adam Schenk continues to fly under the radar in terms of his valuation on both DraftKings and sportsbooks, so I’ll go right back to him again this week after backing him the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he finished T6.

That T6 finish marked his sixth top-10 over the last five months, which has impressively spanned a diverse range of easy and difficult scoring conditions. Pertinent for his prospects at the BMW Championship, he’s fired top-10s in his latest appearances at Muirfield Village and TPC Potomac, two of the top comp courses for the conditions in store at Olympia Fields.

Schenk continues to trend well in the areas that matter most this week, ranking top-10 in SG: APP, Prox: 125-175, and Driving Distance. He should be popular at this price on DraftKings, but I’ll have plenty exposure in both DFS and betting markets.

Best of luck with your 2023 BMW Championship bets and PGA TOUR golf sleepers this week in DFS!

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Shop the odds at the best sports betting sites for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players here, including for top 10, top 20, etc.

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