The west coast swing continues to march forward, with more PGA TOUR golf sleepers to uncover in Monterey, California for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Tom Hoge was our first winner of the 2022 season, and we’ll use the same methodology to narrow in on a similar pool of value contenders this week.
It’s been a steady mix of both favorites and longshots to prevail at this event, and while the atmosphere of closing out a tournament at Pebble Beach has weighed heavy on longshots here in the past, it only takes a combination of hot irons and streaky Poa putting to prevail in this event, which is a skillset that many value golfers in this week’s field possess.
Let’s get to our 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state.
COURSE INTRODUCTION
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will thankfully be the last time this PGA TOUR season we’ll need to worry about handicapping across a multi-course rotation. Pebble Beach is the main attraction here, hosting two of the four rounds in this celebrity Pro-Am format, with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula also in rotation.
All three courses will play under 7,200 yards, but with a little more bite expected than the recent three-course Pro-Am at The American Express. A second shot assortment of courses with generous fairways, there is a premium on approach play from under 150 yards, Par-4 scoring from 350-450 yards, and short game to scramble on some of the smallest Poa greens on the PGA TOUR.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.
PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
From a golf betting perspective, the first decision is whether to back one of the “big 3” in Spieth, Hovland, and Fitzpatrick, or to build exposure across a wider card of longshots. I looked at an event which has produced winners like Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor, and Ted Potter Jr in recent years, and opted to go for the latter, including several of the below plays.
In terms of DFS, it’s a top-heavy field short on depth, so I’ll likely go with a balanced lineup construction, built around these salary saver options.
Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Robby Shelton (, $7,800)
I’ve played wait and see on Shelton so far into the 2023 PGA TOUR season, hesitant to believe that a 7-year journeyman between Tours has suddenly found something in his game to break through. But 10 starts in to the new season, I’ve seen enough to dismiss this being a mere heater, and have officially bought into the hype of this new and improved version of Robby Shelton.
Shelton was a two-time Korn Ferry Tour winner last season, and has not looked back since regaining PGA TOUR status, with five top-25 finishes to start the season and two top-10s over his last four starts. Shelton is not one to gain strokes off the tee, but makes up for it with elite metrics on approach (No. 20 SG: APP) and around the green (No. 12 SG: ARG). Pebble Beach is a bona fide second shot course, which should play perfectly into Shelton’s game from fairway to green. Poa has been his best surface over the course of his career, so he stacks up to be a contender in his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut this week.
- Join TheLines free golf betting Discord channel with more than 4,200 community members discussing sports betting 24-7-365.
Nick Hardy (, $7,700)
Nick Hardy looks the part of a winner on the PGA TOUR, although still chasing his first victory in his sophomore season. He proved he wasn’t afraid of the limelight when he finished T14 at the 2022 U.S. Open, and has steadily improved with top-10 finishes at the Travelers Championship and Sanderson Farms Championship since then. In his early career, he’s shown a bias towards short, coastal courses, already racking up top-25 finishes on comp course events like the Mayakoba Championship, Bermuda Championship, and Sony Open.
He carries a streak of seven consecutive events now in which he’s gained strokes off the tee and on approach. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks top-10 in both categories, and No. 4 in SG: Ball Striking. There’s been some inconsistency with his short game, but for this price, I’m ready to buy low on the elite ball striking and comp course success.
Troy Merritt (, $7,200)
The horse for the course among this week’s PGA TOUR golf sleepers. At the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, it’s sometimes worth over-looking recent form in favor of proven course history, and Merritt is a perfect case in point. A T4 finisher at this event last year, Merritt has now finished top-25 in four consecutive appearances at Pebble Beach. The fit is a sensible one for Merritt, who’s always sacrificed distance for accuracy off-the-tee, and leaned on his irons and putting as the strengths of his game.
The results have been shaky in 2023 so far, but he finished T3 at Mayakoba and No. 3 in the Sony Open field in terms of SG: APP, so it’s clear his game is still traveling to short, coastal courses like what’s in store ahead at Pebble Beach. Merritt was hot leading into this event last year, however there were no signals of form ahead of his three prior top-25 finishes here. Top-10 in Comp Course History, Poa Putting, Prox: 125-150, and Par-4: 350-400, this may be the perfect get right spot for Merritt. He won’t make my outright card, but I like his value in DFS at moderate projected ownership.
Ben Martin (, $6,700)
The only player in this field to gain more strokes on approach than Troy Merritt at the Sony Open was this man right here, sitting $500 cheaper on Draft Kings and three times longer on the odds board. Martin’s lack of driving distance has eliminated him from contention on long, difficult courses like last week’s set up at Torrey Pines, but these short, easy Pro-Am’s have proven to be more his speed.
Martin carried a share of the lead into the final round at the RSM Classic four starts ago before fading to a T21 finish, and continued to look sharp with a T32 in his next start. He’s one of only six players to rank top-20 in both Prox: 75-150 and Par-4: 350-450, which is a crucial profile to attack the three courses in store this week. With finishes of T25 and T26 over his last three appearances here, Martin is one of my favorite placement bet considerations of the week.
Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM ODDS: To Finish Top 20
One of the nice things about betting top 10, top 20, etc. markets at BetMGM is that they pay ties in full. You sacrifice a bit on the price to get this feature, but it’s not uncommon to see a 3-way tie for 20th or 5-way tie for 40th, etc. on leaderboards. Other books employ dead heat rules for those ties and divide your odds by the number of golfers tied for 10th, 20th, etc. at the end of the tournament.
