4 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: 2023 3M Open
The 3M Open begins Thursday, July 27 in Blaine, Minnesota. Top PGA TOUR names in the tournament like Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama create opportunities to capitalize on golf sleepers in DFS and beyond. John Haslbauer lays out his top longshot picks for 3M Open odds below.
The penultimate stop on the PGA TOUR regular season schedule has brought us to Blaine, Minnesota for the 2023 3M Open. Though we may typically expect a bit of a post-major hangover in the week following the British Open, it’s fair to assume all players in this field have come motivated to improve their standing down the final stretch of the FedEx Cup Playoff race. Last week’s sleepers article gave out Emiliano Grillo (T6) and Antoine Rozner (T20) from the bottom of the odds board, so we’ll look to keep that momentum going into the 3M Open.
There are a wide array of players who can contend at TPC Twin Cities. Premium ball striking is necessary to avoid the constant threat of water hazards, however these straight forward greens complexes create plenty of opportunity to find value in those who may otherwise be held back by poor short game.
Below we’ll look at potential 3M Open picks and dig in deep as we look for PGA TOUR sleepers in this week’s golf odds. Click on the odds to bet now.
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COURSE INTRODUCTION
As a par-71 just over 7,400 yards, longer hitters have enjoyed an advantage at TPC Twin Cities, as winners like Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau have put on display. Tournament founder Hollis Cavner described this course perfectly in saying “we want birdies and trainwrecks”. True to the standard TPC-layout, there are ample birdie opportunities to be had here between its drivable par-4s and short par-5s, but the constant threat of water hazards has managed to still keep overall scoring in check.
We hear a lot about “second-shot” golf courses on the PGA TOUR; ones with generous fairways and ample opportunity to take a conservative club off the tee. TPC Twin Cities, by and large, is a “first-shot” golf course. It features water hazards in play on 15 holes and has the length to require pulling driver out the bag often. Similar to Florida courses like PGA National or Bay Hill, water hazards threaten throughout this course, and place an emphasis on control with the driver.
When playing from the fairway, TPC Twin Cities is extremely gettable, featuring oversized greens that have elicited a high green-in-regulation percentage each year. Form a short game perspective, the greenside complexes are straightforward and we have seen historically weak putters like Cameron Champ and Tony Finau go on to lead the field in putting on these greens.
With short game form proving inconsequential at this event, I’m looking to hone in on the best ball-strikers, and ones with an elite combination of both driving distance and driving accuracy in particular. For a deeper dive into the course, read my 3M Open preview. Let’s get to our 3M Open picks with a look at PGA TOUR longshots and sleepers for your golf DFS lineups.
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POTENTIAL SLEEPER 3M OPEN PICKS
From a golf betting perspective, I’ve opted to go with a tighter outright card, concentrating my exposure to a shorter list of favorites. I’d given close consideration to adding each of the below plays to my outright betting card, but will instead look to get my exposure through DFS and placement bets.
From a DFS perspective, the $7K-and-below range offers plenty of upside from elite ball strikers who have proven to be suitable for this course, whether it be their prior 3M Open performances or results on similar comp courses this season.
Below is a look at my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2023 3M Open! Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Doug Ghim (, $7,400)
It’s possible the bomber narrative set by Wolff, Champ, and Finau at the 3M Open is the cause for a player like Doug Ghim to slip this far down the board. Regardless of the reason, I struggle to justify why Ghim is this cheap this week.
One a tee-to-green stalwart who was incapable of gaining with the flatstick, Ghim has discovered new form on the greens in 2023, and consistently strong finishes to follow. Ghim brought a streak of six consecutive top-35 finishes to the Genesis Scottish Open, and has gained strokes putting in seven of his last 10 starts.
Before this 2023 resurgence, Ghim had already shown to be a solid fit at TPC Twin Cities, posting two top-20s over his first three appearances at the 3M Open. Ranking top-15 in SG: Ball Striking, Fairways Gained, and Bogey Avoidance, Ghim projects to be one of the safest options in the low $7K range on DraftKings this week.
Ryan Palmer (, $7,200)
Ryan Palmer and Lucas Glover tend to pop in the same weeks that reward distance and top-tier ball striking and a de-emphasis on short game. Glover is on my outright betting card at half the odds of Palmer this week, so this is a discount I’m happy to jump on whether in DFS or in placement betting.
Palmer rates out No. 10 in my model this week, a credit to his consistent ball striking. He ranks top-10 in the key stats of Opportunities Gained, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, and Par-5 Scoring. He’s gained 3+ strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in three of his last five starts to demonstrate the consistency of his ball striking form.
Of course, all of these metrics omit the short game stats, which are what’s ultimately driven his odds to be this high. But, if Cameron Champ is capable of leading the 3M Open field in putting like he did in 2022, then Palmer – who’s gained strokes putting in two of his last six starts – has the potential to do the same.
Scott Piercy (, $6,600)
It’s a return to the scene of the crime this week for Piercy, who coughed up one of the biggest choke jobs of the season at the 2022 3M Open. Piercy held a 4-shot lead heading into the final round, but came undone after playing No. 13-15 at 5-over par. Piercy would go on to finish T4, four strokes shy of Tony Finau. This is not an outright endorsement of Piercy after seeing his lack of composure under pressure, but the price drop seems too steep to ignore on DraftKings for a player who has put his fit for this course on display already.
If there’s one area of your game you can be deficient in at TPC Twin Cities, it’s around-the-green. SG: ARG has proven to be one of the least correlated stats with success at TPC Twin Cities over its first four years hosting the 3M Open. Over his last 10 starts, Piercy is averaging at least a half stroke gained OTT, APP, and Putting, but a full stroke lost around-the-green, so an easier greenside set up should be a welcome site for his game.
Ranking top-30 in SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, Birdies or Better Gained, and Course History, Piercy is still showing plenty of form to chase a repeat top-10 performance in 2023.
Brice Garnett (, $6,500)
It is tradition to back Brice “The Big Ticket” Garnett in the state of Minnesota, and I don’t plan on stopping now. Garnett joins Tony Finau and Patton Kizzire as the only three players in the field to make it through the cut in each of the first four 3M Open contests. In Garnett’s case, he’s exceeded expectations each year with finishes of T31, T16, T26, and T23.
At $6,500 on DraftKings, it’s not to not have to pay a premium for the clear course history advantage. From a form standpoint, Garnett’s game has not drastically dropped off compared to prior years. He’s managed seven made cuts over his last eight starts, including a T8 at the Corales Puntacana Championship over that span.
As a salary-saver and top-40 consideration, Garnett’s course history alone is worth backing at this price. I know it’s Garnett we’re talking about here, but anything is possible!
Best of luck with your 2023 3M Open longshot bets and DFS plays!
3M OPEN ODDS
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