PGA TOUR Bets: ZOZO Championship Golf Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on October 12, 2022
pga tour bets

It’s Wednesday, and we’re already just hours away from tee off for the ZOZO Championship, which begins at 11pm EST. I’m feeling especially confident about the PGA TOUR bets on the card this week, coming off of a near sweep at the Shriners Children’s Open with a Tom Kim outright and going 3-for-3 on placement props. And it’s nothing but good memories at the ZOZO Championship, one year removed from hitting Hideki Matsuyama outright and pulling an all-nighter to sweat it live. We’ll be channeling the same vibes this time around looking to stay hot with a repeat winner.

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a challenging course despite its lack of length, and in a short history of just two years, has proven to reward strategic ball-strikers in Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama who possess polished all-around games. We’ll need to factor in some subjective travel fatigue this week, which in my opinion, places even further emphasis on proven past results at this event.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my ZOZO Championship previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to play PGA TOUR bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a golf course that will accentuate any holes in your game from tee-to-green, so I do see this as an event where bettors should look to build a shorter card with exposure to one of the top-5 favorites. For me, there is one clear standout who I expect to win this week, and I’ve centered my card construction around him first and foremost.

The median scoring average at this no cut event has hovered around Even par in its first two years, which means we can throw birdies or better gained by the wayside for the first time in this fall swing, and dismiss some mediocre recent results for players who are more comfortable in grind-it-out conditions. I’m expecting a winning score of about -12 this week.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is more or less the same old structure for PGA TOUR bets in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3.1U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +1200

Best Odds Still Available:

I rarely ever bet a player outright at odds this short, so in order to do so, I need everything to be going in that player’s favor. In the case of Sungjae Im at the ZOZO Championship, he checks every single box, and is a player I could not go into this event without exposure to. In Sungjae’s debut here in 2019, he finished T3, and carded the lowest score of the tournament over its final three rounds. In his first return to the ZOZO Championship since then this year, he enters in arguably the best form of his career. Sungjae rides a streak of six consecutive top-20 finishes, with three runner ups over that span.

Over the last 36 rounds, there is not a single flaw in Sungjae’s game you can point to, rating top-15 across the key categories of SG: T2G, SG: OTT, SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, SG: Short Game, Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained, and Comp Course History. So for for all those reasons, I’m in on Im.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

If the wheels had fallen off the Mito bandwagon prior to the Shriners Children’s Open, they’re emphatically back on again now. Mito enters this week on the heels of his best career SG: APP performance, gaining 9.1 strokes on the field, en route to a solid T4 finish at -20. Mito doesn’t have the reputation of a birdie fest specialist, so the improved form is encouraging entering a set up at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, which will emphasize elite ball striking and short game in difficult conditions. Mito will be making his ZOZO Championship debut this week, but is no stranger to golf in Japan, last seen finishing T4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.

Emiliano Grillo

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

A lackluster weekend at the Shriners Children’s Open last week stalled what has otherwise been a hot three month stretch of golf for the Argentinian. Over that span, Grillo ranks No. 8 in SG: TOT with three top-5 finishes between the Sanderson Farms, 3M Open, and John Deere Classic. He’s still amongst the top ball strikers in this field, and has made drastic improvements to his putting, now gaining in seven consecutive measured events. Grillo was respectable in his debut at the 2020 ZOZO Championship where he finished top-30, and has the elite ball striking skillsets I’m looking for at Narashino.

Brendan Steele

My Bet: +14000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s not a conviction bet at 140-1 odds, but despite a few recent under-performances leading in, this still feels like an extreme misprice for a player who placed T2 here one year ago. Steele’s preceding form was nothing special this time last year, with finishes of MC, T17, T42, MC, and T67 in his five prior starts. With back-to-back wins at the Fortinet Championship and back-to-back top-5 finishes at the Sony Open earlier in his career, Steele has proven to be the right type of player to chase course history with. Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks top-3 in SG: Ball Striking and SG: OTT, so I’m happy to chase the long term form and course history at this long number.

CT Pan

My Bet: +22500

Best Odds Still Available:

I’d hit the usual 3 unit limit up to this point, but I’m comfortable going slightly over to accommodate one last longshot at a number nearly twice what I would have expected in a field of just 78. Like Steele, CT Pan is a solid long term ball striker whose short game has prevented him from posting any notable finishes recently. So if a change of pace is needed, where better than a trip across the globe to where he became an Olympic bronze medalist. He gained 4.5 strokes on approach in his last start at the Sanderson Farms, so I’ll take a bite at this number if he proves to be a specialist on Japanese greens.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

Sebastian Munoz was a late withdrawal from the Sanderson Farms following the Presidents Cup, so this will be our first opportunity to back a Munoz FRL bid of the 2023 season, and in fact his first start since the BMW Championship in August. In any case, he should be in good spirits on this trip to Japan, finishing T4 at this event last year and T4 at the Tokyo Olympics. He’s always a FRL auto-bet, but 45-1 odds on this course is still great value.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

Aaron Rai has always played his best golf outside of the United States, finishing top-10 in two of his last three DP World Tour starts. He also happens to play his best golf in the opening rounds, ranking No. 20 in R1 Scoring. This sets up to be a good fit for Rai’s game, as he has the iron play and scrambling ability to post a low round on a difficult course layout like Narashino’s.

Luke List

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a ball striker’s course which pristine greens that have allowed lesser putters in the field to hang around in its first two years of play on the PGA TOUR, and that’s exactly the set up I like to look to Luke List on. He justified the fit with a T7 finish here last year, and while I may not trust him for four rounds here, I can easily get behind him as a FRL play.

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Stephan Jaeger the birdie maker is gradually playing himself into a regular role on my FRL cards regardless of course fit. He continues to rate out top-10 in Birdies or Better Gained and Par-5 Scoring, and will at some point stop his volatile play of negating his birdie streaks with bogey streaks.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Sungjae Im

My Bet: +135

Best Odds Still Available:

Last week, Sungjae Im T20 was a conviction play at even odds. This week in half the field size, I’m doubling down again on Sungjae to finish top-10. He’s done so in four of his last six full field events, and has all the tools needed to contend on this course layout versus a limited field.

Top-20 Finish: Emiliano Grillo

My Bet: +175

Best Odds Still Available:

Grillo is also entering the ZOZO Championship in some resurgent form, finishing top-30 in seven of his last 10 starts. Players like Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, and Brendan Steele of a similar ball-striker’s profile, have channeled consistent success at this event, so I expect Grillo to continue to play himself into contention on this course.

Top-20 Finish: Adam Long

My Bet: +360

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Long was the stat model darling of the week for me, unexpectedly popping up as one of only four players in the field to rank top-30 in both SG: Ball Striking and SG: Short Game over the last 36 rounds. He’s been on a boom or bust player among PGA TOUR bets, but with five top-30 finishes over his last 7 starts, I like his chances to stay towards the top of the leaderboard this week.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you next Monday for the CJ Cup Tournament Preview! Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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