PGA TOUR Bets: Shriners Children’s Open Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on October 5, 2022
pga tour bets

I’ve never left a week in Vegas with more money than I started with, but there’s a first time for everything. We’re feeling some good energy heading into this week’s PGA TOUR bets for the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin.

Birdies will be a hot commodity this week, with contenders regularly pushing beyond 20-under par at this event. A steady dosage of accurate drives and greens in regulation should create ample scoring opportunities for the field this week, and effectively boil down to a putting contest amongst those who can routinely keep the ball in play.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Shriners Children’s Open previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

It’s a big week for Course History at the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open, and I was a bit surprised to see how heavily that was weighted into odds across the marketplace, for both the proven and unproven players at TPC Summerlin. In general, I tried to hone in on players who have delivered multiple strong results at this event in the past, as the formula for success at this event tends to be repeatable. With that said, there are also some buy-low opportunities on players who are in better current form now than when they’ve struggled at this event in years past.

We should fully expect a winning score beyond -20 with conditions looking normal in Las Vegas, so I opted to build out a longer card with exposure to a volume of long shots, capable of winning putting contest.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is more or less the same old structure for PGA TOUR bets in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.6U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Tom Kim

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

The formula of accuracy off-the-tee, elite approach play, and the ability to catch a streaky putter is one that should translate as much at TPC Summerlin as it did for Tom Kim at Sedgefield CC. This time, I don’t expect him to spot the field four strokes on the first hole, and if he doesn’t, I’d expect a strong debut for the new South Korean prodigy. Kim has quickly won golf fans’ hearts over after an explosive showing at the Presidents Cup, and already looks the part of a star on the PGA TOUR.

Aaron Wise

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

I never thought I’d see the day I’d look at a 25-1 on Aaron Wise and actually want to bet it, but here we are. All the narratives are in Wise’s favor this week. He’s a Las Vegas resident, which has been a good omen at this event in the past for players like Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, and Alex Cejka. He has strong course history, coming off of a T8 here last year. He’s got a chip on his shoulder from being one of the first men left off the US Presidents Cup roster, and he’s in fantastic preceding form with eight top-30 finishes over his last nine starts.

Brian Harman

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

It never feels good to back Brian Harman, who continues to chase his first PGA TOUR win since 2017, but he’s put himself in contention time and time again on these short tracks that reward accurate ball striking, so at 55-1, I feel just a little less gross about backing him. Harman has finished inside the top-20 in three of his last four trips to this event, and ranks top five in SG: T2G (L36) and SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses). With top-10 finishes in three of his last six starts, he continues to trend closer and closer towards his first win in five years.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

I thought I’d never have the chance to include Mito in my PGA TOUR bets again after all the LIV rumors that swirled at the close of the 2022 season. Nevertheless, our Chilean son is still teeing it up with the good guys, so I’m not done donating to the Mito fund just yet. This week, despite obligation, he’s a sensible fit, rating out No. 2 overall in my model, on a course that should allow the top ball strikers to create some separation.

Matt Kuchar

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Patience paid off on the spotlight player of the week this time around, as I watched this number drift all the way down to 90-1 after opening no longer than 75-1 on Monday. Kuchar is not going to attract a volume of bets behind him, but he’s a sensible fit here on a course that rewards fairways, greens, and a very hot putter. The course history is solid, and he comes in with good form after gaining 7 strokes T2G in his 2022-23 season debut at the Fortinet Championship.

Chez Reavie

My Bet: +25000

Best Odds Still Available:

This number is, in my opinion, an over-reaction to Reavie’s inexplicably poor course history. In 11 career trips to the Shriners Children’s Open, Reavie has finished inside the top-40 just once. Considering he shares the same profile as players like Webb Simpson and Jim Furyk who have dominated on these grounds, it’s almost inexplicable to see he’s still found no success here. So with that said, he’s due. Reavie rates No. 1 in SG: APP entering this week, and is only six starts removed from picking up his last PGA TOUR win at the Barracuda Championship.

Chad Ramey

My Bet: +45000

Best Odds Still Available:

Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, and Davis Riley gained plenty of popularity from their rookie campaigns last year, but they still combine for less PGA TOUR wins than this man of the same rookie class, who stands before us at 450-1. Ramey has gained with accuracy over his first season on TOUR, rating out above TOUR average in both Driving Accuracy and SG: APP. That’s a perfect fit for TPC Summerlin, as he proved in his debut last year, finishing T14. He’s 450-1 because he’s missed seven consecutive cuts, but course history is sticky here, making it an ideal get right spot.

SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.6 UNITS)

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Matthew NeSmith was first round leader in desert conditions at the 2021 WM Phoenix Open, and should be able to channel a similar game plan while in better form entering this week. He has rock solid form at this event with three top-20 finishes over his first three starts, and will be a popular value play this week.

Andrew Putnam

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Putnam is another popular value play among PGA TOUR bets who just missed my outright card this week. He can light it up with the putter, is in great form with nine consecutive made cuts, and has looked comfortable at TPC Summerlin, coming off of a T11 in his most recent appearance last year.

JJ Spaun

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

JJ Spaun is nothing if not a hot starter. He’s gained over 1.5 strokes in R1 in five of his last six events, and claimed the first round lead most recently at the FedEx St. Jude. Another short, positional layout at TPC Summerlin should reward the same skillsets.

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +8500

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Svensson rated out No. 8 in my model this week thanks in large part to his birdie making ability (No. 5 in BoB Gained) and propensity to score on short courses (No. 14 SG: T2G <7,200 Courses). I’ll continue to look his way whenever books price him north of 80-1 odds in the FRL market.

Brendon Todd

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Brendon Todd does not have the results back up his fit for TPC Summerlin, but he’s still shown he can get out to a hot start in easy scoring conditions, as shown by his co-first round lead at the Mexico Open last season. Todd ranks top-5 in Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, and SG: P, all encouraging signs for what’s needed to go low here.

Harry Hall

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

I may have been a week too early on Hall after backing him to T40 at last week’s Sanderson Farm’s Championship, but I’m not going to back off now as he heads to a home game in Las Vegas where he debuted last year with an impressive T8 finish. Hall is erratic, but he’s a great putter, which presents high one-round upside in the FRL market.

SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Sungjae Im

My Bet: -120

Best Odds Still Available:

This is a conviction bet on the defending champion, who I wanted to bet outright, but just couldn’t pull the trigger on in a birdie fest at odds as short as 14-1. Sungjae suits the course perfectly, rating out as the No. 1 overall player in my model this week, and his play at the Shriners Children’s Open backs that up, never finishing worse than T15 in three career starts. Looking at the recent form, he’s shown no signs of changing that trend, as he’s now finished T20 or better in is his previous five starts entering this week.

Top-20 Finish: Brian Harman

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

What’s more gross than betting Brian Harman outright? Doubling down on him to also finish top-20. For players of Harman’s skillset, Course History tends to become just a little more repeatable when you can continually channel the same formula of fairways and greens on repeat. He’s finished T20 in three of his last four trips here, so I like the odds at +250.

Top-40 Finish: Chad Ramey

My Bet: +360

Best Odds Still Available:

This is not a deep field early into the 2022-23 season, so I like the idea of taking a T40 flyer, even if it is on someone who’s missed seven consecutive cuts. Ramey is a good course fit for what this course demands, and I’m drawn to these odds for a 2022 PGA TOUR winner who’s already shown top-20 upside in this event last year.

SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you next Monday for the ZOZO Championship Tournament Preview! Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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