PGA TOUR Bets: Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on September 28, 2022
pga tour bets

We’re starting to get back into the weekly PGA TOUR bets grind after a brief respite from traditional Stroke Play in Quail Hollow last week at the Presidents Cup. The 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson is next on the docket.

Plenty of randomness and variance is expected this week, as a field of largely unproven young talents vie for FedEx Cup points at the top of the season. Country Club of Jackson presents an interesting test, which seems to produce drastically different leaderboards year over year. Bombers and plodders have found equal success at this event, and while the course stands over 7,400 yards, it’s not a layout that requires many long iron approaches. I’ve focused my card around players who excel in proximity from 100-150 yards, with an advantage towards the longer drivers and players who have found success in easy scoring conditions on Bermuda grass.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2023 Sanderson Farms ChampionshipClick the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

I think -19 will be enough to win this week, as the lack of depth in this field should be an evident contrast from the talent we saw on display at last week’s Presidents Cup. Last year we saw young rookies like Cameron Young and Sahith Theegala announce themselves on TOUR at this event, and the stage is set for the 2023 rookie class to size themselves up against the rest of the PGA TOUR.

I gave a thought to betting Sam Burns on a near single-bullet card, but that’s not a very fun way to bet the Fall Swing. Also, judging by social media, he and the rest of the Presidents Cup team players may still be nursing hangovers, which was the extra push I needed to keep the defending champion as a fade. Instead, there’s plenty of value in the mid-tier of PGA TOUR bets I looked to capitalize on when building out my card.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s the same old structure for PGA TOUR bets in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Scott Stallings

My Bet: +3300

Best Odds Still Available:

Anyone who runs a model for the Sanderson Farms Championship should like what they see in Scott Stallings. He edged out Sam Burns in my model with top-15 ranks across the key categories of Birdies or Better Gained, Comp Course History, SG: APP, P4: 400-450, Prox: 100-150, Driving Distance, and SG: P. Stallings has won this event before in 2012 (albeit at a different course), but has strong results at Country Club of Jackson. I like the Knoxville, Tennessee resident’s chances in the pseudo home game to kick off his 2023 season.

Taylor Montgomery

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

I’ll admit this isn’t a number I jumped on right away when odds opened on Monday, despite endorsing Montgomery as my spotlight player of the week. I was hoping a few books may discredit his T3 finish at the Fortinet Championship due to his severe reliance on the putter. But alas, in a weak field, we’ll settle for 35-1 odds on a young, long-hitting rookie with limitless potential on a great course fit. Montgomery enters with 14 top-15 finishes in 19 starts between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA TOUR in the 2022 calendar year.

Davis Riley

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

Allow me to be the first person this week to enlighten you that Davis Riley is a Mississippi homer and will be teeing it up with the unwavering support of friends and family in the crowd. Riley has been as volatile as they come over the last few months, with drastic shifts week-to-week in his ball-striking and short game form. In any case, the inconsistency presents us with a great buy-low value. He should welcome a return to familiar Bermuda greens, as he looks to channel a similar performance to his playoff loss to Sam Burns at the 2022 Valspar Championship.

Thomas Detry

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

As it stands, Mito Pereira is still a PGA TOUR member, but I’ve braced myself emotionally for what I believe to be his inevitable departure. So in my impending free agency on the PGA TOUR bets bandwagon, I’m trying a test run with the D-Train.

The Belgian has played himself onto the PGA TOUR, as a top-10 player on the DP World Tour in the year prior. He’s been knocking on the door across all Tours, with six top-15 finishes over his last ten starts between the PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry Tour, and DP World Tour. I’ll take his experience in deeper fields, and feel encouraged by his T12 finish at the Fortinet Championship to kick off the 2023 season for the Belgian Bomber.

Seamus Power

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available:

As I dug further into this event throughout the week, I started to look more and more closely at performance at the Barbasol Championship as a strong comp. Both are played in the Southeast region of the country with Bermuda grass throughout in easy scoring conditions versus similarly weak fields. Power picked up his first career PGA TOUR victory at the 2021 Barbasol Championship and has seen cross-over success at Country Club of Jackson with three top-30 finishes over five starts. He fizzled down the stretch of the 2022 season, but I’m happy to jump on a discounted number in the hopes he opens the 2023 season with a clean slate.

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

I loved Jaeger at the Fortinet Championship and would like to avoid being one week too early, considering the same skillsets on a premium at Silverado are equally as pertinent at Country Club of Jackson. Jaeger ranked No. 8 in my model this week, No. 1 in Par-5 Scoring and top-5 in SG: APP and Birdies or Better Gained. He was in the mix at this event last year before settling for a T26 finish, and with top-15 finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Wyndham Championship to close the 2022 season, he’s proven capable to contend in big events, despite the long odds.

SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Trey Mullinax

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

In the Fall Swing, my first look will always go to the No. 1 player in Birdies or Better Gained. This week, that honor belongs to Trey Mullinax. He’s a local down here and seems to always bring his best stuff in this part of the country, finishing T4 here last year, and picking up his first victory at the Barbasol Championship.

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Svensson has been knocking on the first round leader door regularly, and with Sebastian Munoz withdrawn from this event, he slots in nicely as as the FRL understudy. Svensson’s ball striking continues to trend well, and easier scoring conditions that reward aggressive approaches should be an ideal fit for the Canadian to go low on Thursday.

Lee Hodges

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Lee Hodges was one of the last men off the outright card, which usually means you’re the first man up for a FRL bet. He’s top-10 in SG: APP, and is one of the better values on the board for me, ranking No. 17 in my model.

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +9500

Best Odds Still Available:

I was high on Jaeger at the Fortinet Championship due to his elite Par-5 Scoring stats and he’s shown enough flashes for me to go straight back to him in both the outright and FRL markets. He ranks No. 5 in Birdie or Better Gained and proved he can go low on this course at the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship, where he was T5 through the first two rounds.

Robert Streb

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Robert Streb is going to make a few FRL runs in a calendar year, and it’s never going to make any statistical sense when he does. So this is nothing more than a gut play at a long number for a player who has the propensity to go low, especially in this area of the country on Bermuda greens.

SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Scott Stallings

My Bet: +170

Best Odds Still Available:

We are fully immersed in the part of the season where a Scott Stallings Top-20 slots in as a conviction play. There’s uncomfortable bets throughout the odds board this week, but Stallings is one of only five players in this week’s field who played himself into East Lake, so he technically has the “pedigree” of a top-20 in this week’s field. He rates out perfectly for this course, has had strong results, and is no stranger to playing himself into contention.

Top-20 Finish: Trey Mullinax

My Bet: +240

Best Odds Still Available:

Mullinax makes all the sense in the world on this course, I just can’t come to terms with betting him as a 40-1 outright, or as a player capable of winning multiple PGA TOUR events in a span of seven events. In any case, he suits the course well with his length off the tee and comfortability on Bermuda greens. As an Alabama native, he’ll have plenty of support from the galleries this week to will him into a T20 finish.

Top-40 Finish: Harry Hall

My Bet: +270

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s not often you see Harry Hall popping in models, but that’s par for the course in the Fall Swing. Hall ranked No. 29 overall in my model this week, a credit to his combination of Driving Distance and Putting. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour each of the last two years, Hall has the game to contend on a bomber’s course.

SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you next Monday for the Shriners Open Tournament Preview! Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSIHP

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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