PGA TOUR Bets: RSM Classic Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on November 16, 2022 - Last Updated on November 17, 2022
pga tour bets

We’ve kept busy with PGA TOUR bets during the Fall Swing, now up to three outright hits over the last six weeks. We’ll look to make it a total of four, and three straight to finish out the 2022 calendar year at The RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort’s Seaside and Plantation courses. This week, the formula should call for mid-iron precision and the comfortability on Bermuda grass to maintain a hot putter for four days.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my RSM Classic previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to play PGA TOUR bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

Any time we have ourselves a birdie fest putting contest, I’m going to fade the very top of the board, as the elite skillsets possessed by the best players are typically mitigated on these easier course set ups. At Sea Island Resort, you can get away with below average driving and short game, as it truly is a second shot golf course that offers no advantage for driving distance, with over-sized greens that will produce some of the highest GIR percentages of the season from this field.

With that in mind, I decided to go with a longer card this week, spreading my exposure across a wider group of players who all share the same profile of precise ball striking, comfortability on Bermuda greens, and a proven track record either here, or on other short, coastal, and easy scoring conditions. Unless the weather gets out of hand, we should expect to see a winning score push well beyond 20-under par.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is business as usual for PGA TOUR bets in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

PGA TOUR BETS: RSM CLASSIC (3 UNITS)

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +3300

Best Odds Still Available:

I was fortunate to place all of my outright bets Monday morning before Tony Finau’s withdrawal turned the value of the betting board upside down. Be that as it may, it’s Tom Hoge who really should be the new betting favorite based on his current form in the 2023 season, course profile fit, and proven results at the RSM Classic. Hoge has finished top-15 in four of his first five starts to kick off the new season, and the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion should always be in consideration on easy, positional courses that reward birdie-making and elite wedge play. Hoge finished T4 here last year, and is trending towards an even better finish in 2022.

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s a rare thing to bet Matthew NeSmith and feel confident about it, but if there was ever a situation that called for it, it’s at this year’s RSM Classic. NeSmith found new confidence in his game last season and has parlayed that into three top-10 finishes to kick off the 2023 season. The local South Carolinian has always putted best on Bermuda over the course of his career, and has been a model of consistency with his ball striking, ranking No. 6 SG: BS over the last 36 rounds. He’s finished top-30 in each of his first three appearances at this event, and is riding plenty of confidence after the hot start to his 2023 season.

Andrew Putnam

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Andrew Putnam is one of the shortest drivers on TOUR, which is about the only thing that’s held him back from winning a PGA TOUR event with his level of play from fairway to green lately. Few courses mitigate the advantage of driving distance more than Sea Island, so it’s an ideal time to jump on, considering his rank inside the top-20 in driving accuracy. Putnam is No. 7 in total strokes gained to kick off the 2023 season, and has established himself as the No. 1 putter on TOUR over that span. The list of past winners has regularly rewarded the best overall putters, so I like Putnam’s chances in this putting contest.

Brendon Todd

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

The tried and true adage for the last few years has simply gone like this. If you like Webb Simpson on a short, positional, easy Bermuda Birdie Fest, you’ll do just as well to back Brendon Todd at discounted odds. The margins between Todd and Simpson are narrowing rapidly, but the fact remains that Sea Island is an ideal profile fit for Todd’s game. The list of historical top performers at the RSM Classic shows a clear trend that the best putters tend to be the ones most capable of going low. Todd is in the midst of a streak of 13 consecutive events in which he’s gained strokes putting, so he checks that box emphatically. His best finish at the RSM Classic was a T4 in 2019, and with two top-10s to kick off the 2023 season already, the form is there to improve this year.

JJ Spaun

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

JJ Spaun was my spotlight player of the week for the RSM Classic, but I admittedly could have done a better job of projecting where his actual odds would open on Monday. The secret is out, apparently, that Spaun’s combination of Course History (Runner Up in 2017), Conditions Fit (No. 2 in Easy Condition Scoring, No. 15 in Comp Course History), and Recent Form (three top-25s over his last four starts), all line up for an encouraging week ahead. The 2021 Valero Texas Open champion has gotten the monkey off his back as a first-time PGA TOUR winner, and will do well to channel the same skillsets of flighted approaches through high winds in order to find similar success again this week.

Greyson Sigg

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

I am a sucker for the Sea Island narrative this week, and Sigg is no exceptions as a local Georgian who resides in St. Simon Island and trains out of Sea Island Resort. The 2021 rookie has shown a bias to familiar Bermuda greens early on, already posting top-10 finishes this season at the Sanderson Farms and Bermuda Championship. There’s no doubt he has the ability to go low in a birdie fest and close out tournaments, twice winning on the 2021 Korn Ferry Tour season, so I’ll take my chances with a home bed narrative behind Sigg.

Ben Griffin

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

It could have been a streak of three straight outright winners entering this week if not for Griffin’s back-nine implosion at the Bermuda Championship. A little back-nine nerves when leading a PGA TOUR event as a rookie one year removed from working a desk job are…to be expected, as are collapses in general from players who live in the 100-1 odds range. In any case, Griffin continues to be a stat model darling who’s partial to these short, positional layouts. He’s already posted top-5 finishes at the Wyndham Championship and Bermuda Championship within his first eight PGA TOUR events. He ranked No. 8 in my model this week, top-10 in SG: APP, Birdies or Better Gained, and Par-4: 400-450, and has sustained the solid form with a T16 showing at last week’s Houston Open. An easy call to bet north of 100-1, even despite the questions around his closing ability.

Chesson Hadley

My Bet: +19000

Best Odds Still Available:

It never feels great to back Chesson Hadley in a PGA TOUR event, but it’s far easier to stomach when his price drifts as far as 190-1. Despite the long odds, he’s a perfect profile fit for what a birdie fest, putting contest like the RSM Classic demands. Entering this week, Hadley is the only player to rank top-10 in SG: APP, SG: P, and Birdies or Better Gained. He shot the low round of the day on the Seaside Course in his opening round last year, but a triple-bogey Friday start on the Plantation Course the following day unfortunately spelled an early exit. Assuming he gets a crack at the weekend this time around, I like the prospects of Hadley playing the Seaside Course for three rounds.

David Lingmerth

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

David Lingmerth is not your average 200-1 longshot among PGA TOUR bets. He carries plenty of upside with top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts, each on comp, short, coastal setups in the Bermuda Championship and WWT Mayakoba Championship. He’s only eight starts removed from a win at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship, and has shown that his fit for short, positional courses translates at Sea Island with two top-20 finishes over five career appearances at the RSM Classic.

RSM CLASSIC FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

We’re switching things up a bit for the FRL card this week. With Round 1 splitting half the field between the Plantation Course and Seaside Course, there’s a significant edge to be had in markets that allow FRL bets for the full field, as opposed to markets that are restricted to each course. The Plantation Course, with its two extra par-5s, protection from the coastal winds, and a full stroke difference in scoring average under par compared to Seaside, offers far more likelihood to produce the lower round of the day. So, I’m loading up my FRL card on the five players below who will be teeing it up from the Plantation Course on Thursday, and who have had proven success at this event with the ability to make birdies in bunches.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

Brandon Wu

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Ben Griffin

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Hayden Buckley

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

John Huh

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

RSM CLASSIC BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Mackenzie Hughes

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

In a volatile birdie fest like the RSM Classic, it’s difficult to look at this field and have true conviction in any outcome at Even odds. So with that said, I’m starting the prop card a little lower down with Mackenzie Hughes, who suits the course perfectly and was one of the odd men out on my betting card. Hughes was a winner here in 2017 as a rookie, finished runner up at this event last year, and has already climbed to No. 3 in the FedEx Cup Standings with a win and three top-25 finishes to kick off his 2023 season.

Top-20 Finish: Davis Thompson

My Bet: +400

Best Odds Still Available:

We are chasing the local Sea Island narrative with Thompson, who trains out of Sea Island Resort and has great familiarity with the course. His best finish is a T23 here in 2019, but a hot start to the 2023 season which includes top-15 finishes at the Fortinet Championship and Shriners Open suggests he’s poised to improve on that mark this week.

Top-20 Finish: Ben Griffin

My Bet: +420

Best Odds Still Available:

I’ll continue to have my doubts that Ben Griffin can close out a tournament and win outright after what he displayed down the stretch at the Bermuda Championship, but all the stats support that this is a perfect fit for his game, so I’m doubling down with some T20 insurance on the outright bet. Griffin is another local who trains out of Sea Island Resort and should feel comfortable at home, having great familiarity with each of these courses.

Top-40 Finish: Akshay Bhatia

My Bet: +480

Best Odds Still Available:

I’ll always take a bite on Akshay at long placement odds when he finds himself in the field. Bhatia cruised to first place in the Monday Qualifier with an 8-under 62. Coming off of a strong T17 finish at the Bermuda Championship, Akshay’s game looks to be in top form leading into the RSM Classic.

Top-20 Finish: Patton Kizzire

My Bet: +650

Best Odds Still Available:

One last Sea Island local to complete the narrative, Kizzire should also find himself comfortable on these grounds, with new confidence after placing T10 in his last start at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. He’s finished top-20 in two of his last four appearances at the RSM Classic, so it’s clear his game suits these conditions.

RSM CLASSIC BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN THE RSM CLASSIC

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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