PGA TOUR Bets: CJ Cup Golf Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on October 19, 2022
pga tour bets

The first “real”, “big boy” tournament of the 2023 season is here in South Carolina, as virtually every top name is available for PGA TOUR bets at Congaree Golf Club for the CJ Cup. Congaree is a very unique test, littered with natural waste bunkers and firm and fast fairways and greens throughout.

Congaree Golf Club is a brand new golf course, established in 2018, and should be a brand new site for a majority of players in the field who did not play in the 2021 Palmetto Championship. It’s a stark contrast in field strength for this week’s event versus the Palmetto Championship, which means we should see see better scoring. I’m expecting a winning score of about -15 this week.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my CJ Cup previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to play PGA TOUR bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

For the second week in a row, I’m going with a tighter outright betting card, concentrating my exposure to multiple elite players at the top of the board. Good players tend to come out on top over good fields, and that’s exacerbated when reduced to just 78 players and no cut.

Congaree Golf Club will reward skilled players from tee-to-green in extremely firm and fast conditions, and will require deft touch around the greens for inevitable runoffs into collection areas and oversized waste bunkers. At over 7,600 yards with the widest fairways on TOUR, there’s a distinct advantage to bombers and players who thrive with long irons from 200+ yards. Those are skill sets that tend to be rewarded at most Major Championships, so I’m treating my betting card similarly.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is more or less the same old structure for PGA TOUR bets in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3.1U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 2.9U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

CJ CUP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Justin Thomas

My Bet: +1600

Best Odds Still Available:

When I think of long, wide open, firm and fast Tom Fazio courses, I think of Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas in the same elite class. That was further justified in my model this week as McIlroy and Thomas positioned themselves as the clear top-2 rated players. Rory’s odds opened at half this number, so I’m happy to start my card with a more discounted version in JT.

Thomas will be making his 2023 season debut this week, but his game continued to show form at the Presidents Cup. Over his last 36 rounds, he ranks top-10 in all of the important metrics for Congaree, including SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, SG: T2G, SG: Ball Striking, Prox: 200+, Driving Distance, and Sand Saves Gained. He’s also No. 1 in Comp Course History and No. 2 in SG: T2G (>7,400 Yard Courses). It’s no surprise that he models well for this course, but the discounted 16-1 odds make this a must bet for me on the value alone.

Scottie Scheffler

My Bet: +1600

Best Odds Still Available:

In my opinion, there is a class of four top-tier players in this field: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler. There are plenty other great players in this field, but the line is fairly clear there before getting into a bunched up 20 to 30-1 range on the odds board. So with Justin Thomas already on the card, I figure why not double down with a tight, top-heavy card. In a short field with big names throughout, my expectation is we’ll see an elite player win.

Scheffler did not look himself at the Presidents Cup, but I don’t mind overlooking that, considering the down performance is likely factored into the 16-1 price for the World No. 1. There are few poor course fits for Scheffler, but firm and fast conditions throughout should especially reward his skilled shot-making ability, as he displayed in his Masters victory last season. He’ll be debuting a new putter this week, which I see as a welcomed sight after his display at the Presidents Cup.

Gary Woodland

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

While I find it incredibly unlikely for a longshot to win versus this top heavy of a field, I couldn’t help but squeeze the spotlight player of the week onto my card at odds this long. He loves the CJ Cup, for whatever that’s worth, finishing top-10 in three of the last four CJ Cup events. He should also welcome a trip back home to the southeast, where he posted two T5 finishes on the Florida Swing earlier this season. The ball-striking continues to trend back to 2019 levels, so his putter will ultimately decide how close he can come to contending.

CJ CUP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available:

Munoz kicked off his 2023 season campaign with a dud, making double bogey on his opening hole at the ZOZO Championship last week. That’s behind him now, so we can assume he’ll be out for Thursday revenge at Congaree. Munoz has won before in similar conditions at the Sanderson Farms, and should be able to tap into the same game plan which allowed him to post an opening round 60 at TPC Craig Ranch last season.

Seonghyeon Kim

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

To be honest, I don’t know a ton about SH Kim’s game, but I’ve seen his name float towards the top of leaderboards often enough already this season to take notice. The KFT rookie has gained across all four primary SG categories in his last two starts and finished T15 in each, which is an encouraging trend to keep the momentum going on Thursday at long odds.

Kurt Kitayama

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’ll always be drawn to throwing a FRL dart on Kurt Kitayama at a long and open course course suitable to bombers. He finished T2 at the Mexico Open and T3 at the Honda Classic last season, two of the better comps for Congaree GC, so there’s no doubt he has the skillsets to kick things off with a low round on Thursday.

Harris English

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I think it’s safe to say at this point that the rust from Harris English’s hip surgery, which sidelined him for the second half of last season, is gone. He’s finished top-30 in two of his first three starts this season and was No. 15 in SG: APP at the Shriners Children’s Open in his last start. His propensity to make birdie putts in bunches hasn’t gone away, so I like going back to English in the FRL market on course he’s already proven intiial success on.

Luke List

My Bet: +9500

Best Odds Still Available:

Luke List on a long, wide open golf course is always going to grab my attention, and he just so happens to be the holder of the course record at Congaree Golf Club outside of tournament play. He gained 2.7 strokes on these familiar greens this time last year, and that’s all the convincing I need to back him at 95-1 odds.

CJ CUP BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Rory McIlroy

My Bet: -110

Best Odds Still Available:

Rory has finished inside the top-10 in 11 of of his last 14 starts with two wins over that span. He now enters a perfect course fit for his game, in a limited field of just 78 players. Even if he gets off to a pedestrian start (which I do not expect), this just has the feeling of an event he can casually post a backdoor top-10 in, even without his best stuff.

Top-20 Finish: Gary Woodland

My Bet: +333

Best Odds Still Available:

I love the course fit for Gary here, who’s proven these types of firm, fast, and long courses in the southeast have suited him best over recent years. His recent results have pushed his odds further down the board, but that’s a fault of his putting. With the way his ball striking has begun to trend, he can get away with losing a stroke or two on the greens and still post a T20 in this limited field.

Top-20 Finish: Harris English

My Bet: +360

Best Odds Still Available:

Harris English broke my heart here at the 2021 Palmetto Championship, folding down the stretch with one hand on the trophy. But Dde to the post-surgery rust and a much improved field, we’re getting a bit of a surprise discount on English. It seems he still has some kinks to work out with his driver, but that shouldn’t matter on a course as open as this one. The combination of course fit, course history, and trending form make English one of my favorite values of the week.

CJ CUP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you next Monday for the Bermuda Championship Tournament Preview! Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN CJ CUP

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Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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