PGA TOUR Bets: Cadence Bank Houston Open Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on November 9, 2022
pga tour bets

The parades in the streets of Houston have finally subsided, just in time for our PGA TOUR bets at the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. I always love watching a challenging course that forces players to take chances and think strategically throughout their round, so this should be a refreshing break from the birdiefests we’ve grown accustomed to in the Fall Swing.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Cadence Bank Houston Open previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to play PGA TOUR bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

Plan A this week was to build a tight card around one of the three elite players in this field (Scheffler, Burns, Finau), before resorting to Plan B, which was to pepper the middle of the board on a longer card. Thanks to some misprices from the oddsmakers however, we get to do both!

To narrow in on a player pool this week, I prioritized players with proven results in difficult scoring conditions and comp courses to Memorial Park. Driving Distance is a nice luxury this week, but players who are most complete from tee-to-green should bubble up to the top of the leaderboard by week’s again. If winds pick up any more than they have the first two years of this event, I’d expect to see a winning score in the single digits under par.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is business as usual for PGA TOUR bets in the fall swing.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

PGA TOUR BETS: HOUSTON OPEN OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Tony Finau

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, and Tony Finau represent the elite class of players in this week’s field as far as I’m concerned, but the odds haven’t exactly reflected that. Finau, who missed the cut on the number at Mayakoba last week in his first PGA TOUR start since August, has instead fallen to a secondary range amongst the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Aaron Wise, and Maverick McNealy. A little rust should have been expected last week, so I have no problem jumping back on with Finau, who has two wins and four top-10 finishes over his last six starts. Memorial Park is a great fit for a profile of distance, ball striking, and touch around the greens, so I expect a strong showing from Finau in Houston this week.

Taylor Montgomery

My Bet: +3400

Best Odds Still Available:

Taylor Montgomery continues to be an enigma on the PGA TOUR, as the rookie has now finished top-15 in nine consecutive starts between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA TOUR despite ranking 111th in this field in SG: APP over that stretch. Montgomery has leaned on a scorching hot putter over that stretch, but a look back over the course of the 27-year-old’s career suggests he may simply be a transcendent talent on the greens. Over six career measured PGA TOUR events, he has gained at least 4.8 strokes putting in all of them. To put that into perspective, he’s gained 4.8+ strokes putting more times in his first six career starts than Si Woo Kim has over his entire PGA TOUR career.

So yeah, we should probably start to expect a baseline of a few strokes gained per week from Montgomery. In addition to this historic run on the greens, he also possess the elite driving distance and above-average short game needed to navigate Memorial Park.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

We haven’t heard much from Sahith Theegala this season, to the point where I did a double take when I saw he’d already posted a T6 at the Fortinet Championship and T5 at the ZOZO Championship through his first four starts. I blame the PGA TOUR for not marketing its brightest young star better, but in any case, he’s remained under the radar enough to drift past 50-1 odds in a field that is without much depth. I’m always drawn to Sahith on more challenging layouts that reward creativity, particularly around the greens, and that’s exactly what we have in store at Memorial Park.

Sepp Straka

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

The parallels between 2022 Sepp Straka and 2021 Houston Open champion Jason Kokrak, are eerily similar.

Both are heavyset journeymen who picked up their first PGA TOUR wins later into their careers after years of average results, only to burst through the floodgates thereafter. In Straka’s case, he’s still looking for his second career win after taking down the Honda Classic, but has endured two playoff losses over his last seven starts at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and Sanderson Farms Championship (all featuring the same throughline of Bermuda grass throughout). Kokrak was searching for form in the new season before his Houston Open victory, with preceding finishes of T54 and MC. This week, Straka enters coming off of a MC at Mayakoba and T62 at the CJ Cup, which can only mean he’s poised to follow in Kokrak’s footsteps.

Dean Burmester

My Bet: +9500

Best Odds Still Available:

The 95-1 odds are simply an incorrect valuation on the South African PGA TOUR rookie, and most sports books were quick to adjust after Monday morning. I truthfully would have backed him at half this number, and as my Spotlight player of the week, I love his chances to contend for his first career PGA TOUR victory. He’s already a proven winner on the DP World Tour, the form is excellent with a T4 and two addition top-40 finishes to open his rookie season, and his profile as a bomber with elite short game should all suit him perfectly for what this course demands.

Cameron Champ

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m always wrong when it comes to Cameron Champ it seems, but as a triple-digit outright, I don’t mind taking a flyer in this spot. He’s as erratic as they come on the PGA TOUR, but a T8 finish two starts ago at the ZOZO Championship suggests he has the form to hang around on a difficult course set up. Memorial Park should suit his game even better, as the 7,412-yard layout will favor the longer hitters and not ask for many layups off the tee. His short game is a bit of a concern leading in, but if he’s capable of posting three top-30 finishes over three career appearances at The Masters, then I’ll take my chances on him at this layout as well.

Ryan Palmer

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s a near home bed narrative week for the local Texan, who looks to build on his best finish since his T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson on his home course of TPC Craig Ranch last season. He had a solid debut at Memorial Park last year, finishing T26, which helps justify his comfort playing in his home state. The leading form has dropped him to 200-1, but Palmer has popped on similar courses to Memorial Park, ranking top-10 in Comp Course History.

CADENCE BANK HOUSTON OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

The vibes should be good for Munoz, as the University of North Texas alum heads back to the familiar Lone Star State. The last time he cashed as first round leader was just north of here at the AT&T Byron Nelson, so here’s hoping he can channel the same game plan again this week.

Wyndham Clark

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

In worse preceding form last year, Wyndham Clark finished one stroke off the first round lead at the Houston Open. This year, on the heels of back to back top-30 finishes, Clark seems poised to go for another low round, on a set up that should reward his profile of length off the tee and strong short game. Two of his best finishes last season came at St. George’s G & CC and The Renaissance Club, so he seems to be comfortable on difficult Doak designs.

Will Gordon

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

This may be buying too high on last week’s first round leader at Mayakoba, but I’m comfortable riding the hot hand again at these odds. Like Clark, Gordon has the same profile of Driving Distance and short game to present scoring opportunities at Memorial Park.

Gary Woodland

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Woodland has quietly become a first round specialist over recent months, claiming the first round lead at the Scottish Open and CJ Cup over his last seven events. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen Gary piece four good rounds together, but his recent performances on comp courses like Bay Hill, PGA National, and Southern Hills suggest this lines up to be another good fit for his game.

Byeong Hun An

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

An continues to trend towards picking up his first career PGA TOUR victory after winning on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and opening up 2023 with top-20 finishes at the Fortinet and Bermuda Championship. He continues to add distance off-the-tee, and ranks top-10 in SG: ARG, which should help keep scoring in check on Thursday.

CADENCE BANK HOUSTON OPEN BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Aaron Wise

My Bet: +100

Best Odds Still Available:

I had every intention of betting Aaron Wise outright this week, until he opened sub-20/1 at odds shorter than Tony Finau. Wise is a popular play for good reason this week and was the No. 1 player in my model, but I can’t justify paying the 18/1 outright odds for a player who hasn’t won a PGA TOUR event since 2018. Instead, I’ll be content to cover the cost of my outright bets this week if Wise finds himself inside the top-20, like he has in four of his last five starts.

Top-20 Finish: Dean Burmester

My Bet: +260

Best Odds Still Available:

What more can I say about Dean Burmester? I’m as confident as one can be in a 95-1 outright bet, and have full conviction that his game is tailored to play well on a set up like Memorial Park’s. I consider this a double-down on the outright bet if all goes according to plan.

Top-20 Finish: Ryan Palmer

My Bet: +550

Best Odds Still Available:

On the contrary, this is an insurance bet against the outright bomb on Palmer. Considering Palmer’s won just one individual stroke play event in his career back in 2010, I have some concerns about his win equity. But with a T16 at the Scottish Open, he’s shown enough promise on difficult Doak designs to justify a +550 flyer.

CADENCE BANK HOUSTON OPEN BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you next Monday for the RSM Classic Tournament Preview! Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN CADENCE BANK HOUSTON OPEN

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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