PGA TOUR Bets: Butterfield Bermuda Championship Golf Betting Card

Written By John Haslbauer on October 26, 2022
pga tour bets

For better or worse, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship is just about upon us. In store, we’ll have one of the weakest fields for PGA TOUR bets of the entire season. The forecast also calls for imminent rain and high, sustained winds. It’s going to be carnage, and increasingly difficult to bet with the conviction of a usual PGA TOUR event.

With that said, past years at the Bermuda Championship have proven that short game is a must, particularly experience on Bermuda greens, and with winds as high as we expect to see for this week, the advantage should shift to the longer hitters who can pierce through these winds, as Lucas Herbert displayed with his win last year.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Butterfield Bermuda Championship previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to play PGA TOUR bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

This is going to be one of the longest betting cards of PGA TOUR bets I build all season, and I think strategically, it needs to be. There are no slam dunk, proven players to bet on at the top of this field, and hurricane-like conditions are not inconceivable looking at the forecast ahead. Especially on a course as exposed as Port Royal Golf Course in Bermuda, weather can change in an instant, either forcing a suspension or giving a certain wave (whether AM or PM) a significant advantage. So with so many question marks, I choose to diversify my options, forego the top of the board, and hope that one of my 10 outright bets are still standing come Sunday (or Monday).

From a unit allocation standpoint, I decided to take prop bets off of the card this week. I don’t have conviction in any one player performing well this week, given the absence of proven talent and instable playing conditions, so I’m just going to swing for the fences with limited exposure in the Outright and FRL markets.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

PGA TOUR BETS: Bermuda Championship OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

I did not want to start my betting card any shorter than 30-1 odds with so much randomness in store between the (lack of) field strength and daunting weather forecast. I thought that would mean giving up on Aaron Rai, but alas, with odds all over the place this week, he’s fallen into the sweet spot at 35-1.

I’d lean towards a skilled player with plus distance to start my card this week, but such a player does not exist in this odds range. Instead, Rai fits the mold of past champions Brendon Todd and Brian Gay perfectly. He joins Lucas Glover as the only two players this week to rate out top-10 in both Fairways Gained and SG: APP, and he’s a far superior putter to Glover, with Rai gaining strokes putting in four of his last five starts. The 27-year-old has proven he can handle extremely windy conditions, picking up his most recent victory at the 2020 Aberdeen Scottish Open. He’s also placed top-10 in two of his last three DP World Tour starts, proving he’s inside his comfort zone when outside the United States.

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +4000

Best Odds Still Available:

I really like Stephan Jaeger’s game, and think he’s a strong candidate to have a breakthrough 2023 season. In terms of recent form, Jaeger is No. 1 in the field SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds, so in a field starved for talent, I’ll happily side with the player in best overall form at 40-1 odds. His touch around the green (No. 9 SG: ARG) should serve him well when winds pick up this week, and when conditions are calm, he’s also proven he can pick apart an easy course, ranking No. 3 in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 36 rounds.

Adam Long

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Long at 55-1 odds should almost never be considered a value, but this week, we’ll make an exception. My spotlight player of the week, he found himself atop my model, ranking top-10 in SG: APP, SG: T2G, SG: Ball Striking, Comp Course History, SG: P, Good Drives Gained, and SG: TOT in High Winds. Sometimes the numbers lie, but elite ranks across the board in the key metrics for this week is just too much to ignore.

Callum Tarren

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

Callum Tarren ran out of gas at the end of last season, playing 9 consecutive weeks between the RBC Canadian Open and FedEx St Jude Championship. So I’m willing to give him a pass for the three missed cuts over his last four starts, especially considering he has a T13 in the middle of that stretch at the Sanderson Farms. This will be Tarren’s Bermuda Championship debut, but he’s a perfect profile fit, ranking top-10 in both Driving Distance and SG: P, good enough for No. 5 overall in my model.

Byeong Hun An

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

I was surprised to see An’s name pop up amongst the longest hitters in this week’s field, as he ranks No. 5 overall in Driving Distance. If the event goes on to play as wet and windy as it’s expected to, that should heavily favor the longest hitters with the best short game, as Lucas Herbert put on display last year. An is the only player in this field to rank top-30 in Driving Distance, SG: ARG, and SG: TOT (High Winds), an encouraging profile for what lies ahead this week.

Chesson Hadley

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Is Chesson Hadley good? No. Are the alternatives in this odds range any better? Also no. So in the arduous task of sifting through names to complete a betting card this week, Hadley gets the call. In his defense, he rated out No. 4 overall in model, highlighted by ranks of No. 2 in SG: APP, No. 4 in SG: P, and No. 8 in SG: TOT (High Winds). He has a good track record on the comp courses to Port Royal GC, picking up his only PGA TOUR win at the Puerto Rico Open. He looked good in his only prior appearance to the Bermuda Championship with a T16 in 2020, so there’s enough in his favor to go back to him at these odds.

Scott Piercy

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

It took an epic collapse for Scott Piercy to not walk away from the 2022 3M Open with his first win since the 2015 Barbasol Championship. Be that as it may, his three T30 finishes over his last six starts still stand out as value at these odds versus this field. Like Hadley, he also has some positive vibes returning to Bermuda, finishing T14 in his only prior appearance at this event in 2020. He ranks top-10 in both SG: T2G and SG: ARG entering this week, which is enough for me to jump onboard at long odds.

Ben Griffin

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

I would not be able to pick out Ben Griffin in a lineup, and I continue to fumble over what the difference truly is between Ben Griffin, Ben Martin, and Ben Taylor. But in any case, the numbers say this course suits Ben Griffin the most, so I’m rolling with Ben Griffin. He rated No. 2 in my model, albeit with a sample size of only 5 career PGA TOUR events, and has the profile I’m looking for of consistent irons and short game. I may not know much about him, but a T4 at the Wyndham Championship and T24 at the Sanderson Farms is enough for me to take a chance on the rookie.

Martin Trainer

My Bet: +60000 (Each Way)

Best Odds Still Available:

Martin Trainer is a bomber who can get red hot with the putter. Everything else in-between the tee box and green has been a disaster recently, but at 600-1 odds, I’m comfortable rolling the dice that he can tap into the same game plan that produced three top-10 finishes last season between the Mexico Open, Corales Puntacana, and Houston Open, each in windy conditions favorable to bombers.

Akshay Bhatia

My Bet: +100000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s been a long while since I’ve had a chance to back our boy, Akshay, in a PGA TOUR event. He looked excellent at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2021 where he finished T30, and followed that up with a win on the Korn Ferry Tour in the Bahamas. Despite the wiry frame, it’s clear he’s comfortable in windy, coastal conditions, so I’m not thinking twice at 1000-1 odds.

BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Russell Knox

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Russell Knox shot an opening round 64 in his 2020 debut at the Bermuda Championship and hasn’t slowed down much since then, finishing inside the top-20 in each of his first three appearance at this event. That experience should help him navigate whatever the conditions throw his way, but it also seems he’s drawn a favorable morning draw on Thursday.

Garrick Higgo

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

History at the Bermuda Championship shows that bombers are the ones most likely to shoot the lowest rounds of the day, with ample scoring opportunities between the three reachable par-5s and six par-4s measuring under 400 yards. Few players run as hot and cold as Higgo, which makes him an ideal FRL consideration. The T3 finish at the Sanderson Farms two starts ago is all the encouragement I need to hop onbaord at these odds.

Brice Garnett

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

This October has so far belonged to Bryce, so it would seem appropriate that that success also translate to Brice in the final golf event of the month. You can parlay Brice Garnett FRL and Bryce Harper Game 1 Anytime HR for odds around +35500, and let me tell you, I plan to! Narratives aside, Garnett has been a coastal killer throughout his career, picking up his only career win at the Corales Puntacana, so his ability to navigate the wind and string along a volume of putts is all that should be required to play into contention on Thursday.

Joseph Bramlett

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Similar to Higgo, I’m playing Bramlett because he can hit the ball far (No. 1 in Driving Distance), which should be a sizable advantage in wet and windy conditions, he’s just too erratic to trust over four rounds. He did place T12 at the Fortinet Championship to open the 2023 season, so it’s clear there’s more to his current form than just hitting bombs off the tee.

BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you next Monday for the OHL Mayakoba Classic Tournament Preview! Follow TheLines on Twitter.

PGA TOUR BETS: ODDS TO WIN BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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