PGA TOUR Golf Bets: 2025 The Sentry Final Thoughts, Betting Card

The 2025 PGA TOUR season officially kicks off in Maui tomorrow, with The Plantation Course at Kapalua ceremoniously hosting the first stop for the 2025 Sentry. It’s historically been known as a week for volatility, whether it be the unpredictable coastal weather, testing new equipment, or questions surrounding how each player has kept form over a long break from tournament competition. In any case, I’m excited for golf’s return and look forward to the next four days of top PGA TOUR players battling it out in paradise. Ahead, we’ll go through my final thoughts and bets for the 2025 Sentry.
Best The sentry Odds
Click the odds anywhere in this article to place the Sentry wagers. For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my The Sentry preview.
HOW I BUILT MY sentry BETTING CARD
The Sentry ranks amongst the stickiest courses on the PGA TOUR in terms of Course History repeatability. That is not typically the case for a pure birdie-fest. However, The Plantation course is truly a singular setup on a massive property unlikely what we see week-to-week in the continental United States. As such, my strategy at the Sentry year after year has always been to grab exposure to at least two players who repeatedly perform well, coupled with some outright flyers who can catch lightning in a bottle, a la Harris English or Chris Kirk.
New year, same unit exposure. I’ll continue to stick to the same risk/reward structure of 3.5U in total to pay 25U each for my outrights, coupled with props for FRL, placements, and matchups to round out my card. It was a slightly down year in 2024 — thanks in large part to Scottie Scheffler vulturing multiple outrights –, but I’m optimistic we’ve hit the right balance of card exposure for long-term profitability with this structure.
- Outright Sentry Championship bets – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
- Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each
the sentry BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)
Collin Morikawa
My Bet: +1200
Best Available Odds: Collin Morikawa +11000 on FanDuel
There is a “big five” in the field this week in terms of repeated course history. Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Sungjae Im are the only players in the field who have recorded multiple top-five finishes over the last five years. I don’t think you can go wrong backing any of them. While Xander is without question playing the best of that group leading into 2025, I can’t justify backing him at half the odds of Morikawa, who has been a factor in every tournament he’s teed it up in since the summer.
Morikawa has family ties to Maui, and he has credited that connection with the island as part of the reason he’s enjoyed such repeated success at this event year after year. He famously botched this event in 2023 with a shocking collapse that opened the door for Jon Rahm. However, Morikawa has continued to polish up his game since then, and the wins are bound to come.
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Sungjae Im
My Bet: +2500
Best Available Odds: Sungjae Im +100000 on FanDuel
This is a fantastic number that did not last long for my featured player this week. Im broke the PGA TOUR record for birdies recorded over 72 holes at this event last year but settled for a modest T5 finish thanks to a few too many derailing bogeys.
There’s no question Im’s game translates well to the setup at Kapalua. In addition to his three top-eight finishes over the last four years, he’s also performed well on the Comp Courses, notably including three career top-16 finishes at the Masters.
Bermuda is Im’s preferred surface, as each of his first two PGA TOUR wins have come on Bermuda tracks. And his form to close out 2024 looked as good as ever.
Stephan Jaeger
My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds: Stephan Jaeger +100000 on FanDuel
The 2024 season was boom or bust for Jaeger, but it was highlighted by his elusive first career PGA TOUR win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. That punched his ticket to Kapalua.
Jaeger has become a bit of a course specialist of sorts, in the sense that he has been best equipped to separate himself at venues that place a premium on long-iron approach play. Jaeger ranks top-10 in the field in terms of Proximity: 200+, and has made a career out of feasting on easier birdie-fest setups.
Two starts removed from a top-10 finish at the Black Desert Championship, Jaeger is a volatile choice, but one with the high upside I like to chase in the outright market.
Cam Davis
My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds: Cam Davis +100000 on FanDuel
Given the consistent track record of other Aussies like Cam Smith, Matt Jones, and Jason Day, it’s usually a pretty good idea to grab exposure to an Australian at the Sentry. Davis has proven to be a fit for the course with a T10 finish here in his 2022 debut. He has kept form over the winter with a top-10 finish at the Australian Open last month.
The 2024 Rocket Mortgage Championship winner is coming off of an inconsistent season last year. But turning the page to a new year, he is a young talent who many experts believe is due for a major breakout season. That’s tough to pass up at these odds in a limited field.
the sentry BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)
Cameron Young
My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds: Cameron Young +50000 on FanDuel
On paper, Kapalua is a course that Young should feast on. He can bomb away freely off the tee and flex his advantage with his long-iron approach play. Unfortunately, it seems to be something between the ears that’s held Young back from converting his first career PGA TOUR win. However, that should not impede his chances of jumping out the gates for a hot start on Thursday.
Aaron Rai
My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds: Aaron Rai +100000 on DraftKings
New year, same tradition. Aaron Rai was a multiple-time FRL cash cow in 2024, so he will remain a staple on the FRL cards going into 2025 as well. Despite its length on the scorecard, approach marksmen have proven to get by just fine at Kapalua. Rai’s FRL prospects will boil down to whether he can carry over his hot putting form from the fall swing.
Tom Hoge
My Bet: +6500
Best Available Odds: Tom Hoge -340 on FanDuel
Like Rai, Hoge is an approach specialist who lacks the distance of his counterparts this week, but that should not be to his detriment. Hoge has already proven he can contend on these grounds, finishing T3 in 2023. If he can get his streaky putter to heat up on Thursday, he will be able to lean on his elite approach play to generate ample birdie looks.
the sentry BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)
Full Tournament Matchup: Sam Burns > Corey Conners
My Bet: -105
Best Available Odds: Sam Burns -110 on BetMGM
Sam Burns at even odds over Corey Conners in a putting contest on Bermuda greens is a bet I am going to place no matter the circumstances. Both players ended 2024 in very good form, so I have to side with the superior putter in this matchup.
Top-20 Finish: Harry Hall
My Bet: +190
Best Available Odds: Harry Hall -50000 on FanDuel
The No. 1 player in my model this week, I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to expect Harry Hall to finish in the top third of this field. Though making his debut at the Sentry, Hall’s elite short game should help bail him out here, even if his ball-striking isn’t quite up to par with the other elites in this field.
Top-10 Finish: Max Homa
My Bet: +450
Best Available Odds: Max Homa +40000 on FanDuel
I can’t explain Homa’s precipitous fall off last year, as I still believe he has one of the best golf swings on TOUR, elite putting upside, and the mental makeup needed to compete at the highest level. With a career-best T3 finish here in 2023, a return closer to the West Coast may be the reset Homa needs to reclaim his elite form.
GOLF DAILY FANTASY CONTESTS
Check out my golf DFS picks post for the Sentry for Underdog drafts strategy, along with traditional DFS contests.
That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Sentry bets.
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the sentry BETS: THE CARD
