It’s another major week in the world of golf, which means you’ve probably gotten another email from your favorite pool host. For all the casual sports fans out there who aren’t glued into the week-to-week PGA TOUR grind, fear not, we’ve got you covered! The below strategy guide will walk you through some of the best options in each tier for your 2023 PGA Championship golf pools picks.
S. Scheffler | Bet now +700 | Bet now +750 | Bet now +750 | Bet now +750 | Bet now +650 |
J. Rahm | Bet now +750 | Bet now +850 | Bet now +800 | Bet now +750 | Bet now +700 |
R. McIlroy | Bet now +1600 | Bet now +1300 | Bet now +1400 | Bet now +1400 | Bet now +1200 |
X. Schauffele | Bet now +1800 | Bet now +1700 | Bet now +1600 | Bet now +1700 | Bet now +1400 |
P. Cantlay | Bet now +1600 | Bet now +1900 | Bet now +1800 | Bet now +1800 | Bet now +1600 |
B. Koepka | Bet now +2000 | Bet now +2100 | Bet now +2000 | Bet now +2000 | Bet now +1600 |
GOLF POOL STRATEGY
Similar to a Daily Fantasy tournament strategy, game theory is key in PGA Championship pools. First, one must identify the popular players in each tier. Then, decide which ones you’re comfortable fading in favor of a contrarian option. Below, we’ll go through the consensus popular and pivot plays in each tier. The format in each golf pool will vary. But, the below tiers are structured in order of consensus betting odds, as is most common for golf pools.
View the full PGA Championship odds board from online betting sites.
Tier 1: Top 1-7 Players
The Popular Play: Jon Rahm ()
The 2023 Masters champion makes a logical starting point for any pool lineup. His combination of elite driving distance, driving accuracy, approach with long irons, and putting on Bentgrass greens makes him the prototypical player to withstand the test ahead at Oak Hill. He rates among the favorites for a reason and could add on to an already historic season which includes four PGA TOUR wins over his first 10 starts.
The Pivot Play: Patrick Cantlay ()
Rory McIlroy also works as a pivot play with Rahm and Scheffler expected to command the lion’s share of collective ownership. But, Patrick Cantlay offers the highest floor of any Tier 1 player after the top two names. Over the last 36 rounds, Cantlay ranks No. 1 in terms of SG: OTT, SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens and Par-4 Scoring: 450-500, where seven of the most demanding holes will funnel to at Oak Hill. Cantlay continues to rise the ranks amongst the world’s best players, and is elite in the areas that matter most for this golf course.
Tier 2: Top 8-23 Players
The Popular Play: Collin Morikawa ()
The 2020 PGA champion doesn’t fit the perfect profile, as the prevailing narrative calls for an advantage to the bombers at Oak Hill. Morikawa has dispelled that myth plenty of times before in his young career, however. He finished top 10 in each of his last two trips to both the U.S. Open and the Masters. There’s no question about his elite ball-striking form leading into this week. He’ll go as far as his short game will take him.
The Pivot Play: Tyrrell Hatton ()
Less of a household name than Morikawa and still chasing his first career major victory, Hatton seems to enter this week with far fewer question marks surrounding his all-around form. A T13 finisher at last year’s PGA Championship, Hatton’s game perfectly suits major conditions. He ranks above average in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: P over the course of this season. With six top-10 finishes over the past five months, Hatton’s game continues to trend upward.
Tier 3: Top 24-45 Players
The Popular Play: Rickie Fowler ()
A recognizable face sustaining a remarkably consistent season who also has plenty of major success? Rickie Fowler has all the makings of a chalk, staple pool play. And although the ownership is expected to be high, it’s still tough to pass up on Fowler’s prospects compared to the other options in this tier. Fowler has finished top 20 in eight of his last nine starts, and has maintained that consistency with a well-balanced profile from tee-to-green. He still has plenty of distance to manage his way around Oak Hill and has advanced through the cut in five consecutive major starts.
The Pivot Play: Joaquin Niemann ()
The LIV players are all likely to become available in pools at a discount. They bring an added level of volatility due to difficulty comparing with the PGA TOUR players. And while it’s difficult to quantify how impressive his latest back-to-back top-10 finishes in 54-hole, 48-player fields are, it’s clear his skill level has not regressed since leaving the PGA TOUR. Niemann looked like his old self at the Masters with a T16 finish last month. He has played his best golf on difficult comp courses to Oak Hill like Riviera CC, Muirfield Village, and Olympia fields.
Tier 4: Top 46-63 Players
The Popular Play: Min Woo Lee ()
I don’t see a chalk, consensus play in this tier. But, with the prevailing narrative of Driving Distance premiums at Oak Hill, I expect Lee to command high ownership despite the recently shaky form. Lee has been a stud on the DP World Tour this year, stringing along eight consecutive top-15 finishes earlier this season. That form culminated in an impressive T6 showing at THE PLAYERS, validating that his game holds up against the best in the world. With three top-30 finishes over his last five major appearances, he’s already proven he has what it takes to score in difficult conditions.
The Pivot Play: Chris Kirk ()
Reporting from on the grounds in Rochester continues to portray an advantage for the bombers. But, that never stops some of the players with more moderate distance off the tee from creeping inside the top-20 anyway. Kirk is about field average in Driving Distance and SG: OTT, but makes up for it with his short game (No. 5 in SG: ARG). That’s a tradeoff I’m willing to make in this tier, as consistent scrambling and bogey avoidance will help keep a steady round on the rails at Oak Hill. I don’t expect Kirk to contend to win, but he profiles as a reliable cut-maker for more conservative pool lineups.
Tier 5: Top 64+ Players
The Popular Play: Cam Davis ()
Not a player I have the utmost confidence in this week, but Davis has gained some steam for his sheer driving distance and overall talent potential. The Australian has a pair of top-10 finishes in elevated events over his last four starts between the RBC Heritage and THE PLAYERS, so there’s little doubt about his current form. He won on a Bentgrass Donald Ross design at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic and has made the cut in each of his first four career major appearances (albeit none inside the top 40).
The Pivot Play: Nick Taylor ()
I’m prioritizing more well-rounded players over pure bombers this week, which has led me to Nick Taylor as one of the highest floor potentials in this bottom tier. Taylor is one of just 12 players in this field to rank above-average in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: P, and is the only player in this tier to lay that claim. No glaring weaknesses from tee to green is ideal for a diamond in the rough at a major. And Taylor enters this week in promising form with five consecutive top-40 finishes and four top-10s in 2023.
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