PGA Championship Odds & Betting Preview: Early Bets For Quail Hollow Club, Including Rory McIlroy

The second major of the year brings us to Quail Hollow Club, with the 2025 PGA Championship next on tap. Compare PGA Championship odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Bryson DeChambeau project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

The hallowed grounds of Quail Hollow Club return to action to host the 2025 PGA Championship. A highly sought-after championship venue, Quail Hollow is a familiar face to PGA Tour fans, having hosted the Wells Fargo Championship here each year since 2003, the PGA Championship in 2017, and the Presidents Cup in 2022.

Having seen so many reps at this venue, there is no element of surprise to prepare for at this major championship. We (and the players themselves) will have plenty more data at our disposal than at your typical PGA Championship. 

Not exactly the bomber’s paradise we’ve seen at other recent major venues like Valhalla, Bethpage Black, Oak Hill, and Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow is not simply long for the sake of being long. At the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, Louis Oosthuizen, Francesco Molinari, and Patrick Reed each tied for second place despite losing strokes to the field in Driving Distance. 

However, the most recent list of winners at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, including Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, and Max Homa, suggests bombers will have a distinct edge here. Beyond pure distance, Quail Hollow tests the field’s total driving, long iron approaches, and ability to consistently scramble for pars on fast Bermuda greens.

At the Wells Fargo Championship, a winning score has surpassed 12 under par just twice here over the last seven years, and with elevated major implications, we should expect this course to be pushed to its limits, rewarding a winner in single digits under par. 

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP betting odds

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Qualifying for the PGA Championship

It’s a major championship week, which means everyone who’s anyone tees it up. Plenty of discourse exists behind the grey areas within qualification criteria. I’m all for the concept of offering special invitations to players who pass the eye test as Major contenders but don’t meet the set criteria, considering how antiquated the OWGR system is at the moment.

It seems the PGA of America agrees, as it extended special invitations to seven LIV golfers who were not otherwise exempt: Dustin Johnson, Tom McKibbin, David Puig, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, and John Catlin. That makes for a total of 15 LIV golfers competing in the 2025 PGA Championship. Other notables to receive special invites this week include Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Jake Knapp, Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Luke Donald.

The people’s champion, Michael Block, will headline the group of 20 PGA Professional champions in the field this week as well. 

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The strongest field of the 2025 season thus far, the 156 best players in the world of golf, will converge in Charlotte, North Carolina, this week. The top 70 and ties will advance through the 36-hole cut. Taylor Gooch failed to qualify, however, so an asterisk will remain over this Major championship. 

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are in a class of their own this week, as the co-favorites. Scheffler will enter with far more confidence than he had leading up to the Masters, as he got the monkey off his back by winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in dominant fashion in his latest start. McIlroy will also come to Quail Hollow with an immense weight lifted off of his shoulders, having finally completed the career Grand Slam, and ending a 10-year Major-less drought. In addition to the top-2, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, and Ludvig Aberg also figure to contend as favorites this week. 

McIlroy was the last player to claim victory at Quail Hollow, winning the Wells Fargo Championship in 2024, which marked his fourth career victory at Quail Hollow Club. Justin Thomas was the winner in Quail Hollow’s only previous iteration hosting a Major at the 2017 PGA Championship. Other past winners at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club include Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, and Lucas Glover. Looking at Event History, the list of former PGA Champions in this week’s field includes Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, Jimmy Walker, Phil Mickelson, Keegan Bradley, Martin Kaymer, Day, Thomas, and McIlroy.

Grand Slam quests are topical this season, and Jordan Spieth will look to follow in Rory McIlroy’s footsteps as he makes his eighth attempt at completing the career Grand Slam with just a PGA Championship win eluding him. 

Quail Hollow CLUB COURSE SPECS

• Yards: 7,626
• Par: 71 (4x 3s / 11x 4s / 3x 5s)
• Greens: Bermuda with Poa Overseed (Firm & Fast)
• Average Green Size: 6,578 Sq. Ft. (Above-Average)
• Average Fairway Width: 28 yards (Narrow)
• Fairways: Bermuda with Perennial ryegrass overseed
• Rough: 2.75″ Perennial ryegrass overseed
• Architect: Tom Fazio
• Comp Courses: Torrey Pines (South), Olympia Fields, Bethpage Black, Muirfield Village, Valhalla, Oak Hill, Southern Hills, Pinehurst No. 2, Riviera, Los Angeles Country Club
• Scorecard:

INTRODUCTION TO QUAIL HOLLOW CLUB

Designed by George Cobb in 1959, Quail Hollow Club has already enjoyed a rich history over its first 66 years. It first hosted the PGA Tour’s Kemper Open in 1969 until 1979. When the Kemper Open switched over to Congressional, it went on to host the World Seniors Invitational before finding a more stable home as host of the PGA Championship starting in 2003.

With renovations from Tom Fazio in 1997, 2003, and 2016, Quail Hollow Club has been modernized to withstand the increased length of PGA Tour pros and is a quintessential fit as a Major championship venue. It hosted the 2017 PGA Championship, where Justin Thomas went on to secure his first career Major. It also hosted the 2022 Presidents Cup, where Team USA cruised to victory over the International Team. For what it’s worth, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, and Sungjae Im were each standout performers at the 2022 Presidents Cup.

Like most other modern Major championship-style venues, Quail Hollow rewards the longest players off the tee and requires polished all-around skillsets from tee to green. Compared to Major conditions, the fairways are less pinched for the PGA, opening the door for shorter fairway-finders like Abraham Ancer, Joel Dahmen, and Nick Watney to contend here in recent years.

These are exceptions to the rule, however, as bombers consistently littered the tops of leaderboards here over the years.

PGA Championship Odds: Notable Changes

When the PGA Tour last came to Quail Hollow for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, it played to 7,558 yards. About 70 additional yards have been added to the official scorecard ahead of the 2025 PGA Championship, with the 9th hole being lengthened by 25 yards.

It’s interesting to note that the Wells Fargo Championship has always fallen in mid-May, so from a course conditions standpoint, that should serve as a strong reference point for how this course will play at the 2025 PGA Championship. By contrast, the 2017 PGA Championship was played in August at this venue, and the 2022 Presidents Cup was played in September.

Most notably, playing in Charlotte, North Carolina, in May necessitates that this Bermuda layout be overseeded with Poa on the greens and Ryegrass on the fairways and rough. This is just the second PGA Championship this century to be played on overseeded turf, following Kiawah Island in 2021. As such, it’s best to reference more recent results at the Wells Fargo Championship over the 2017 PGA Championship, given the recency and comparable playing conditions.

The weather will be important to monitor this week. As it currently stands, the forecast Monday through Wednesday calls for constant rain, which may impact the amount of time players have to prep for this event. Fortunately, the playing conditions look fair (albeit unseasonably hot) Thursday through Sunday. Quail Hollow is equipped with state-of-the-art SubAir systems to drain the course as quickly as possible. However, a wetter Quail Hollow Club should produce easier scoring and an edge for bombers with longer carry distance off the tee. 

EVENT HISTORY & COURSE COMPS

Similar to what we’ve seen from other modern Major championship venues, Quail Hollow Club rewards elite tee-to-green play, particularly favoring long drivers who can score on 450+ yard par-4s, are proficient with their long irons, and can consistently scramble for pars with a lower greens-in-regulation percentage expected.

Looking at recent course history, four players have multiple top-10 finishes over the last four years at Quail Hollow: Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, Max Homa, and Xander Schauffele.

PGA Championship Odds: Best Fits

Rory McIlroy is the clear course horse at Quail Hollow. He’s won the Wells Fargo Championship four times at this venue and has just two finishes outside the top 10 in his last 10 appearances here, dating back to 2012. The Wells Fargo Championship has a history of going down to the wire, with six championships being decided in a playoff since the inaugural 2003 tournament.

Only four times the event was won by 4+ strokes, and two of those were won by McIlroy. McIlroy also owns the course record here of 61, which he posted in 2015.

Looking at total strokes gained at Quail Hollow over the last 10 years, the top 10 players in course history are: Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia, Xander Schauffele, and Keith Mitchell. Course History is sticky at Quail Hollow Club, so each of these players has a compelling reason to contend at the 2025 PGA Championship.

Course Comps

Torrey Pines stands out as the most apparent comp course to Quail Hollow. Both venues place a premium on driving distance while still offering a stern test all around from tee to green. Both venues are also on the Major championship course rotation and mainstays on the PGA Tour schedule. Max Homa and Jason Day won at both courses within the last five years.

From a leaderboard overlap standpoint, Riviera CC also bears plenty in common with Quail Hollow, as Max Homa, J.B. Holmes, and James Hahn all won at both events. Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Phil Mickelson add to the list of consistent contenders on both tracks.

After Torrey Pines and Riviera CC, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Winged Foot, Southern Hills, and Bethpage Black fall in the next tier for me as comparable long and difficult courses. Given the Tom Fazio influence, the Summit Club, Congaree, and Shadow Creek also serve as solid tertiary comps. Quail Hollow stalwarts McIlroy and Keith Mitchell demonstrated great consistency there, as well.

Lastly, looking at the recent Major venues, Valhalla Golf Club, host of last year’s PGA Championship, may serve as the best comp course of them all. Rory McIlroy has flexed his distance advantage to dominate at both venues, which favor sheer distance over any other skillset. Like the 2024 PGA Championship, Quail Hollow Club also appears to be played in soft and wet conditions. Beyond Valhalla, the Los Angeles Country Club and Pinehurst No. 2 are also worth referencing in a Comp Course model.

Combine performance across this long list of difficult bomber tracks, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History from this week’s field are: Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Cam Smith, Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, and Tyrrell Hatton. 

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• Driving Distance / SG: OTT
• SG: APP / Prox 175+
• SG: ARG / Scrambling
• Par 4: 450+
• Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• SG: Putting (Fast Bermuda) / 3-Putt Avoidance
• SG: TOT (Majors Last 5 Years)
• SG: TOT (Long & Difficult Course)
• Course & Comp Course History

Like many other modern Major venues, we must keep the pedal down on Driving Distance importance. Excluding James Hahn, all other winners at Quail Hollow dating back to 2014 (McIlroy, Clark, Homa, Day, Thomas, Holmes) have ranked top 15 in Driving Distance leading in. The top 15 players in Driving Distance in this field entering this week are: Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Niklas Norgaard, Rasmus Hojgaard, Kurt Kitayama, Garrick Higgo, Xander Schauffele, Min Woo Lee, Wyndham Clark, Dean Burmester, Ludvig Aberg, Keith Mitchell, Kevin Yu, Adam Scott, and Taylor Pendrith.

Quail Hollow’s combination of eight 450+ yard par-4s, three 175+ yard par-3s, and three par-5s combines to draw a significant 56% of approaches from beyond 175 yards. The top 10 players in weighted proximity from 175+ yards are: Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Dean Burmester, Kurt Kitayama, Jon Rahm, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, and Rory McIlroy. 

With players converged across multiple tours and unusually difficult playing conditions, I always find it most important to heavily weight performance in recent Majors in my model for weeks like these. The top 10 in SG: TOT at Majors over the last 36 rounds are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Russell Henley.

More Than Just A Bomber’s Course

Of course, a venue like Quail Hollow, which has produced a field median score of around even par each of the last 10 years, requires more than sheer power to score. Narrow fairways, penal rough, and fast greens all contribute to a Greens In Regulation percentage of just 61%. That’s well below the PGA Tour average.

Greenside hazards aren’t the most complex, but being able to scramble around the green is crucial here. Just nine players rank above average in SG: ARG, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions): Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Patrick Rodgers, Bud Cauley, and Ryan Gerard.

To summarize this week, I’m looking for players who are long off the tee, great ball strikers, solid on Proximity from 175+, reliable around fast Bermuda greens, and have proven results on other competitive, difficult courses. Eight players rank above average in each of those categories: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Maverick McNealy.

Correlation At Quail Hollow

It’s worth noting that the profile of players who find success at Quail Hollow doesn’t stray too far from the tour average. That’s common on difficult scoring venues, so we can say that the best players in the world are going to fare best here. The most notable difference to flag, however, would be the premium on Opportunities Gained (7th vs 13th on average) and SG: SG (9th vs 14th on average).

Seven players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Bud Cauley, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, and Rory McIlroy.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: RORY MCILROY

I don’t like betting favorites or pointing out that a favorite has a good chance of winning in a given week. This week is different. In order for me to take a stance on betting a player at odds this short, we need every single box to be checked. In the case of Rory McIlroy at the 2025 PGA Championship, I can’t think of an instance where a player was more primed to win a Major championship than this. Let’s go through it.

Course History

Rory has picked up four wins at Quail Hollow over the course of his career. That includes two of his last three trips to this course and his latest appearance in 2024. He has finished inside the top 10 in nine of his 12 career appearances at the Wells Fargo Championship. 

He has gained a total of 136 strokes at Quail Hollow over the last 50 rounds. There are just two players (Phil Mickelson – 96, Rickie Fowler, 78) who come within 80 strokes (!) of McIlroy at this venue.

Course Fit

Simply put, Quail Hollow Club is a venue that gives a distinct advantage to elite drivers with elite driving distance. In addition to his sheer power advantage, McIlroy also excels from tee-to-green in difficult scoring conditions, and is at his best putting on fast Bermuda greens.

Current Form

Rory McIlroy has returned to his vintage form, picking up impressive wins at The Masters, THE PLAYERS, and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am already this season. That’s a resume that may already be enough to claim PGA Tour Player of the Year honors with half the season still remaining.

Course Conditions

Charlotte will be hit with continuous showers the week of the tournament. A softer Quail Hollow should further accentuate the advantage for bombers, which Rory has taken advantage of in the past. Rory’s latest PGA Championship win at Valhalla in 2014 came in comparable wet conditions.

Playing Free

When asked about his success at Quail Hollow after his 2024 victory here, McIlroy cited it’s his ability to play freely here that’s allowed him to find such repeated success. This course suits his eye perfectly, and with so much success under his belt, there is no scar tissue or fear of missteps around these grounds.

Motivation

You may at this point be saying, “Okay, I get it, but what if Rory takes his foot off the gas after winning The Masters? He’s got his career Grand Slam, what else is there to play for?” 

Well, for starters, McIlroy remains the World No. 2 at the moment, despite picking up four wins over the last six months. A second Major championship would go a long way in catching Scottie Scheffler as the official best player in the world, and would virtually lock up his bid for 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year.

If we look more macro, however, McIlroy has not solidified himself as the best player in his generation post-Tiger Woods. He remains tied with Brooks Koepka with five career majors, and Scheffler is a threat to narrow that deficit with each coming Major. Rory cares deeply about his legacy in the history of this sport, and he needs to continue to strike while he’s hot in his prime.

For all of these reasons, I will be betting Rory McIlroy to cash in among the odds for the PGA Championship, on what is likely to be a single bullet outright card. 

2025 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 PGA Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau

Tier 2

Joaquin Niemann
Patrick Cantlay
Hideki Matsuyama

Tier 3

Brooks Koepka
Tyrrell Hatton
Min Woo Lee
Wyndham Clark

Tier 4

Patrick Reed
Adam Scott
Keegan Bradley
Jason Day
Byeong Hun An
Maverick McNealy

Tier 5

Dean Burmester
Cameron Young
Phil Mickelson
Sergio Garcia
Taylor Pendrith

PGA Championship MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

In my model this week, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, SG: TOT in Majors L5 Years, Prox 175+, SG: APP, Par-4: 450+, and SG: ARG, followed by a more balanced mix of Driving Distance, SG: P (L36, Bermuda, 3-Putt Avoidance), and Bogey Avoidance.

Defending champion Rory McIlroy is the No. 1 player in my model this week. For all of the reasons I’ve stated earlier in this article, I see all the stars aligning for a Major repeat this week, and I view McIlroy as the clear man to beat over Scottie Scheffler at the 2025 PGA Championship.

After McIlroy, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka.

When PGA Championship odds open, I will be betting on Rory McIlroy, and that’s probably about it. There are plenty of value players I also love this week, like Patrick Reed, Jason Day, Dean Burmester, and Cameron Young, so I’m likely to play a heavier volume of DFS lineups this week to include my exposure here alongside McIlroy. Best of luck navigating the odds for the PGA Championship!

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