2024 PGA Championship Golf Pools: Strategy Ideas And Picks For Valhalla Golf Club
It’s another major week in the golf world, so you’ve probably gotten another email from your favorite pool host. For all the casual sports fans out there who aren’t glued to the week-to-week PGA TOUR odds grind, fear not —we’ve got you covered! The strategy guide below will walk you through some of the best options in each tier for your 2024 PGA Championship golf pool picks.
If you’re more interested in making a wager than a pool you can still use this info for some insight into various markets. Find the best odds below and click to make a bet at sports betting sites.
GOLF POOL STRATEGY
Similar to a daily fantasy sports tournament strategy, game theory is key in PGA Championship golf pool picks. First, one must identify the popular players in each tier. Then, decide which ones you’re comfortable fading in favor of a contrarian option. Below, we’ll go through the consensus popular and pivot plays in each tier. The format in each golf pool will vary. But the tiers below are structured in order of consensus betting odds, as is most common.
Typically, the best combined score under par of the players rostered from each tier wins. Some pools will severely penalize one of your players’ scores if they miss the cut. For example, if a player misses the cut with a score of +2, the pool may add ten strokes and make the player +12, making it critical that your PGA Championship golf pool picks make the cut. Also, check your pool rules to see if the worst score is not counted among your picks. Sometimes, this is a feature of golf pool rules and scoring.
Tier 1: Top 1-8 Players
The Popular Play: Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy has bridged the gap considerably since the Masters, where Scottie was the de-facto free square in pools. But with four wins and a T2 over his last five starts, it’s still hard for me to pass on Scheffler in any pool format. He has taken the last three weeks off to be at home for the birth of his first child, which might sound like a welcomed distraction for those looking to fade Scottie, however those in tune with the golf world know that a man with new fatherhood perspective is a dangerous entity to bet against.
The Pivot Play: Jon Rahm
Just because Jon Rahm has taken a giant bag of cash from the Saudis and promptly dropped precipitously down the OWGR list doesn’t change the fact that there is still a clear “Big 3” in the world of golf right now. Brooks Koepka proved at this event last year that LIV players haven’t suddenly lost their desire to compete since leaving the PGA TOUR. If anything, that competitive urgency has only heightened, realizing they only have four cracks each year to measure up against all of the best players in one tournament. I’m willing to overlook one bad start at The Masters in his title defense. I still feel encouraged by what Rahm has shown us on LIV, finishing in the top 10 in each of the first nine events played this year.
Tier 2: Top 9-23 Players
The Popular Play: Wyndham Clark
The world No. 3 might be hard to pass up on in the second tier of pool formats, but Clark’s stock in the betting market has dipped considerably after a couple of uninspiring starts at the Masters and Wells Fargo Championship. Still, it’s hard to look at Valhalla’s layout and not be drawn to Clark’s elite driving distance and long irons, a combination that led to comfortable wins at the Wells Fargo Championship and U.S. Open in 2023. With four top fives over his last 10 starts, Clark has demonstrated better long-term form than any other player around him in this range.
The Pivot Play: Cameron Young
He may not have Wyndham Clark beat on the OWGR front, but Valhalla is a quintessential fit for Cameron Young’s game. One of the deadliest drivers in this field, Young should be licking his chops at the 7,600+ course yardage in soft conditions. Arguably the most over-due player seeking his first professional win, Young has already come close many times on this stage. He has five top 10s in majors since 2022.
Tier 3: Top 24-45 Players
The Popular Play: Sahith Theegala
Always a fan favorite, I do expect Theegala’s ownership to appreciate in pools based on his sheer likeability. Theegala has impressively turned his greatest weakness — driving — into his greatest strength since the last offseason. He now ranks top 20 in the field in SG: OTT leading into this week. Personally, I prefer Theegala on firmer layouts like TPC Scottsdale and Augusta National, where he can flex his creativity around the greens more and capitalize on more driving distance via fairway rollout. For that reason, Theegala is likely a fade for me in softer conditions at Valhalla this week.
The Pivot Play: Byeong Hun An
Unlike Theegala, a long course with soft conditions shifts the paradigm in favor of a player like Byeong Hun An. He possesses the premium, sought-after skillset of carry distance. An is top 10 in terms of driving distance in this field. Although he’s less of a household name than others around him in this tier, he’s demonstrated a level of consistency on long and difficult courses for too long to ignore. With five top 10s already this season, he’s a strong candidate for another high finish on a course that suits his skillsets perfectly.
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Tier 4: Top 46-63 Players
The Popular Play: Keith Mitchell
Yet another bomber with elite total driving metrics, Keith Mitchell is a perfect fit for Valhalla. He also enters in some encouraging form with seven top-30 finishes over his last nine starts. He’s not the caliber of player we should expect to contend in a major. But, in Tier 4 of PGA Championship pools, his top-20 upside makes him a safe consideration.
The Pivot Play: Harris English
A bit more proven in bigger events than Keith Mitchell, English’s recent form is a bit more volatile, which may scare some risk-averse pool players off. In majors, however, English has put together quite the underrated resume, with five top-25 finishes since 2020. That includes high finishes at Winged Foot and Torrey Pines, two strongly correlated courses with Valhalla. With seven top 40s over his last eight starts, English’s upside is a bit limited but still makes for a safe and suitable fit for the course.
Tier 5: Top 64+ Players
The Popular Play: Taylor Pendrith
Pendrith’s name sticks out in this tier, checking all the boxes from long-term pedigree, recent form, and course fit. One of the longest hitters in this field, the 2022 Presidents Cup team member has made a career of feasting on long courses, most recently with a win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He’s carrying a streak of four consecutive top-11 finishes into the PGA Championship, which is sure to drive up his ownership in pool formats.
The Pivot Play: Taylor Moore
A Taylor with less hype leading into the PGA Championship is … Moore. However, it’s Taylor Moore’s game that looks more suited towards long-term results in majors. He was a top-20 finisher at the Masters in April and is on a short list of players who rank above average in terms of SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: P. I’m drawn to Moore in the top-30 or top-40 placement markets this week and think he makes for a conservative floor option in pools to anchor lineups that need a cut-maker.
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