We are one sleep away from the second major of the year. My PGA Championship bets are officially all locked in for Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y. I’m jealous I won’t be able to join for the festivities just a few hours away this week, but I will be glued to my TV for the next four days nonetheless.
The convergence of PGA TOUR and LIV players continues to be the main storyline this 2023 season. It feels even more heightened ahead of the PGA Championship after the LIV players’ impressive display at the Masters. It will be interesting to see if that strong level of play continues into the PGA Championship. Oak Hill will offer a new and stern test, unlike the birdie-fest conditions found on the LIV Tour. Ahead, we’ll get into my full betting card and final thoughts for the 2023 PGA Championship. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place PGA Championship bets at legal sports betting sites.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my PGA Championship preview.
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HOW I BUILT MY PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD
At most any major championship, you need to be long and accurate off the tee, elite with long iron approaches and highly dependable from around the green. In the simplest terms, that continues to be the formula needed at Oak Hill, so I expect we’ll see the same usual suspects who have found success in difficult scoring conditions and recent majors rise to the top of the leaderboard this week.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, we are upping the stakes just a bit to match the high-stakes atmosphere of the second major of the year for my PGA Championship bets.
- Outrights – 3.75U in to pay 30U each
- FRL – 1U in to pay out 17U+ each
- Props – 4U in to pay out 4U+ each
Click on any of the PGA Championship odds below for the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.75 UNITS)
Patrick Cantlay
My Bet: +2100
Best Available Odds:
I started my Masters outright betting card with Patrick Cantlay, and I have no concerns running back the same approach again for the PGA Championship this week. At the Masters, Cantlay ranked third in SG: T2G. He simply could not get a putt to fall all week. We should expect better results on the greens from Cantlay in the week ahead, as he gained a combined 17 strokes putting over his last two BMW Championship victories on similar Northeast Bentgrass.
With three consecutive top-15 finishes in majors, Cantlay is quickly flipping the narrative as an under-performer in the biggest stages. He ranks No. 5 in Comp Course History, consistently dominating at Muirfield Village and delivering top-five finishes earlier this season at Bay Hill and Riviera CC. He’s vastly improved his driving this season by continually adding distance, and now ranks No. 1 in the field in terms of SG: OTT over the last 36 rounds. He also ranks No. 1 in SG: P (Bent) and Par-4: 450-500, so the trending form combined with a switch to Tiger Woods’ caddie, Joe LaCava, may be the final piece needed to claim his first major championship.
Justin Thomas
My Bet: +3100
Best Available Odds:
Justin Thomas was my featured spotlight player of the week in my tournament preview, on the presumption that his odds would gradually drift to a more enticing number over the course of the week. A few days later, that has in fact come to fruition, as the 2022 PGA champion has fallen from as short as 18-1 to as long as 31-1. There’s no question Thomas has what it takes to win a PGA Championship — he’s done it twice since 2017.
As conditions grow more difficult in the majors, a heightened emphasis is placed on SG: ARG with greens becoming increasingly difficult to hit in regulation. Thomas is the No. 1 player on the PGA TOUR this season in SG: ARG, so I like his prospects if this becomes the single-digit-under-par scrambling contest I expect. The driver has grown to be an area of strength for Thomas this season, gaining off the tee in all but one start since January. He’s shown to be strong enough from tee-to-green to win this week with a neutral putting performance.
Max Homa
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:
This was my lone future bet placed before PGA Championship week at the conclusion of the California Swing. There, Homa posted finishes of first, first and second. He’s posted four additional top-15 finishes in his next six starts since leaving California, and a T8 finish in his latest appearance at the Wells Fargo Championship should serve as a nice confidence boost.
Homa’s resume only lacks in major results, but a T13 at last year’s PGA Championship was an encouraging step in the right direction. Any player with wins at Riviera CC, Quail Hollow, and Torrey Pines should be considered a threat to find success at Oak Hill as well. So, I’m happy to take a discount on his price here knowing better results in majors will inevitably come.
Rickie Fowler
My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:
Jason Day and Justin Rose have set the tone for 2023 as the year of the comeback for vaunted veterans. Fowler has been a model of consistency in 2023, and while he hasn’t quite put himself in position to win this year, his stretch of eight top 20s over his last nine starts is impressive nonetheless.
Fowler has narrowly missed qualifying for the Masters and U.S. Open in each of the last two years, but has a very impressive major resume over the course of his career with a total of eight top-five finishes. He’s impressed at the PGA Championship with finishes of T23 and T8 over the last two years and has the well-rounded prowess from tee-to-green needed to contend on a difficult venue like Oak Hill.
Gary Woodland
My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:
If majors rewarded ball striking alone, Gary Woodland would have more than just one on his resume, and he’d be a top-five favorite this week. Alas, a dependable short game is also necessary to win on golf’s greatest stage, and so we find Woodland here beyond the 100-1 threshold. Woodland ranks No. 4 in SG: Ball Striking and is elite in the key distance metrics of Proximity 200+ (No. 2) ad Driving Distance (No. 14). He’ll need a strong ball striking week to mask his shortcomings around the green, but a top-15 putting display at the Masters leaves room for optimism in his first return to Bentgrass greens since.
Mito Pereira
My Bet: +19000
Best Available Odds:
Mito’s departure to LIV has made it easier to put his 18th-hole collapse at Southern Hills behind me until now. For as long as Mito continues to qualify for the PGA Championship (which may not be very long), I have no choice but to continue to bet him, as I’ll never be able to live with myself if I miss out on the retribution for what happened last year. He’s looked solid from tee to green on LIV this season so all signs would suggest his form has not worsened since the 2022 PGA Championship.
Ryan Fox
My Bet: +35000
Best Available Odds:
A Tap In Birdie Special, I’ve vowed to have at least one 300-1 outright as an ongoing tradition at the PGA Championship after the Mito Pereira sweat last year. If the bomb and gouge rumors have any truth to them, this should be a favorable set up for the Kiwi, who’s finished top-30 at the Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and THE PLAYERS over his last four starts.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (1 UNIT)
Max Homa
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:
If there is real concern as to whether Homa can contend in majors, then I like doubling down on him in the FRL market, understanding he is, in theory, an ideal course fit for Oak Hill. I believe the afternoon wave will be slightly more advantageous on Thursday, playing in warmer weather with similar wind to the morning. And this is an appealing number for a top-tier player with spike putting upside.
Gary Woodland
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
Woodland’s game seems to be a ticking time bomb on the greens, inevitable to lose strokes over time. As much as I love his fit for this course, I’m using this as a small hedge against the outright, knowing his elite distance and ball striking set up well to generate ample birdie looks on this setup.
Keegan Bradley
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
Keegan Bradley is a known FRL staple, and a near auto-bet whenever he eclipses 80-1 odds. He’ll have the northeast crowd on his side in Rochester, and tends to play aggressively in the opening round.
Mito Pereira
My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:
It will be interesting to see how Mito handles the pressure of returning to the tournament that got away. He’ll either be a deer in headlights with the added attention, or motivated with vengeance. This is a bet on the latter.
Stephan Jaeger
My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:
Stephan Jaeger is the type of player who suits this course fairly well and can go low, but is not likely to put four good rounds together in severely difficult conditions. With three consecutive top-30 finishes, the form exists for Jaeger to go low for at least one round this week.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PROPS (4 UNITS)
Top-10 Finish: Jon Rahm
My Bet: +100
Best Available Odds:
The odds suggest a Rahm top 10 is a coin flip. But, I can’t help but view that as the expected outcome. Rahm is the man to beat as far as I’m concerned. He has finished inside the top 10 in eight of his first 10 starts this 2023 season, peaking with a win at the Masters two starts ago. He fits the course ideally with no weaknesses in his all-around game at the moment.
Top-20 Finish: Rickie Fowler
My Bet: +230
Best Available Odds:
Fowler has done nothing but finish inside the top 20 this year. He enters with a stretch of eight over his last nine starts dating back to the Farmers Insurance Open. A top-25 finisher in each of the last two PGA Championships, Fowler is one of my favorite values in the field to contend this week.
Top-30 Finish: Chris Kirk
My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:
Another remarkably consistent player, Kirk doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses in his game at the moment. He’s slightly above TOUR average this season in terms of both SG: OTT and SG: APP, but elite in SG: Short Game. A great short game is paramount to keep a top-30 bid afloat, considering a +3 finish was enough to cash in this market at the 2022 PGA Championship. A winner at the Honda Classic earlier this season and top-five finisher at the 2022 PGA Championship, I think Kirk has a high floor in store this week.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Brooks Koepka
All things being equal, Brooks would not be my first, second, or third choice for OAD this week. But, five months into 2023, I’ve already used up players like Scheffler, McIlroy, Cantlay, Schauffele, and Thomas. That left a decision of Rahm or the next man available. And as much as I love Rahm’s fit this week, I’m going to save him for the Memorial and its elevated purse in two weeks.
Brooks, in my opinion, has the best chance of any LIV player to contend at Oak Hill. He’s proven time and time again that long and difficult courses bring out the best in his game. With any lingering injury concerns in the past, I see no reason why Brooks cannot channel the same form from the the Masters and contend in the second major of the season.
If not Koepka, I would also consider Justin Thomas, Tyrrell Hatton, or Patrick Cantlay as OAD picks.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own PGA Championship bets, and see you on Sunday for the Charles Schwab Challenge! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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