Pete Buttigieg is finally starting to make some legitimate noise for the Democratic nomination. Since we began looking at 2020 Presidential election odds, the expectation has always been that Joe Biden would flame out, and somebody from the Buttigieg, Beto O’Rouke, Kamala Harris group would surge.
Biden is slipping, with Elizabeth Warren taking his place as the presumptive nominee. Beto is out. Harris had her moment but couldn’t keep momentum. Now Mayor Pete has found his second wind. Polling suggests he could be positioned for bigger things.
Pete Buttigieg’s Iowa Surge
Across almost all meaningful polls, Buttigieg is a close second behind Warren in Iowa. Why is this important? The Iowa caucus kicks off the Democratic primary season. Taking place on Feb. 3, it comes a full eight days before the New Hampshire primary. A strong performance in Iowa leads to positive press and polling bumps.
It also typically leads to an increase in campaign contributions. Those funds are driven into ad spots in upcoming primary states.
Iowa has shown a progressive side in candidate preference as well. While Buttigieg is still in the murky middle of fleshing out his platform, he’d be viewed as a progressive choice both personally and politically.
History of Iowa Caucus in selecting Democratic nominee
Iowa’s recent history bodes well for Democratic hopefuls. Every winner of the Iowa caucus since 1996 has gone on to win the nomination. Even those who didn’t saw uptick to their campaign.
For example, in 2016 Bernie Sanders‘ Iowa finish (at 49.6% of the vote) cemented his status as a legitimate threat to eventual nominee Hillary Clinton (at 49.8%).
Barack Obama stole front-runner status from Hillary Clinton with his Iowa win in 2008.
John Kerry (2004) and Al Gore (2000) also used Iowa as the springboard for their eventual nomination.
Pete Buttigieg election odds
Mayor Pete’s 2020 election winner odds are not as long as they once were just weeks ago. Most major operators have him around +1100 to +1200. Weeks ago he was in the +1600 to +2000 range.
Sites like Smarkets have him as the fourth overall favorite, trailing Trump-Warren-Biden but even with Sanders.