My 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card, Storylines, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on February 2, 2022 - Last Updated on February 3, 2022
2022 pebble beach bets

In a return to normalcy, I’m happy to have the extra day of research and kick the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am off at it’s regularly scheduled Thursday start. As the dust settles on this week, I’m feeling good about my 2022 Pebble Beach bets I’ve put together and hoping to go back-to-back after hitting my first outright of the year in 2021 at this event.

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Wednesday at 8PM EST to talk through all my favorite 2022 Pebble Beach bets and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. Hope to see you there!

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Pebble Beach bets as well. 

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BETTING CARD STRATEGY: HOW I BUILT MY AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM BETS

When we get to pro-am tournaments, I try to embrace the randomness and build out a longer card by fading the favorites with premium odds. Playing across three different short courses this week should in part mitigate the advantage of the elite ball strikers and play to the favor of players who draw the best weather splits, or who catch the hottest putter.

Overall I’m looking to get exposure to the best iron players in the field this week, relative to their price, and looking for players who have found some success here historically as a nice bonus. As Vaughn Taylor and Ted Potter Jr. have shown us in recent years, there are many different profiles of players who can find success and win in this tournament, so I’m rolling out a more diversified card than what I defaulted to at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open.

As a quick note on the card, it looks like the FRL market is a bit hard to come by with the pro-am fields being released a bit later. Since Sebastian Munoz is not in the field and we’re dealing with three different courses, I’m skipping the FRLs for the week. Unit allocations for Outrights (3U in to pay out 24U+) and Props (3U in to pay out 3U each) will remain the same as usual.

OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Seamus Power

My Bet: +3000
Best Odds Still Available:

This week is all about chasing value for me, expecting a bit of randomness in the pro-am set up and uncertain weather. Once I saw a 3 next to Seamus Power, it was an auto-bet to start my card. He has been circling the top of the leaderboard ever since breaking through for a win at the Barbasol last summer, and has proven that regardless if a course is long, short, tough, or easy, he’s going to be a threat to contend. The course history isn’t quite there for Seamus, but I’m not concerned considering he’s playing the best golf of his career right now.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:

I feel compelled to clarify that while this is an auto-bet on my boy, I expect him to do very well on this course. He’s also gained 2+ strokes putting in three consecutive events, so it’s only a matter of time before he pairs up his T2G and Putting weeks together.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:

I would like to be early on Bezuidenhout so I can lay claim to title as the Bezuiden-tout. He’s no good off-the-tee, but that shouldn’t matter at Pebble Beach where players will funnel themselves into the fairway. From there, he’s a top-10 player on Approach, Around The Green, and Putting, so I’m encouraged about the upside at this price.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +6600
Best Odds Still Available:

Tom Hoge was the last man in on my card. I went back and forth between him and a few others in the 50-70/1 range, but ultimately sided with Hoge who has the balance of Course History (T12 last year), Recent Form (two T5s in his last four starts) and Course Fit (#4 in my model; top-5 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, and Short Course History), that I’m looking for at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Russell Knox

My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:

My spotlight player of the week opened with surprisingly palatable odds in this putrid field, considering his strong event history and track record on these short, windy, coastal tracks. After watching Luke List close out Torrey Pines at the same number, this seems like a good omen for Knox who like List, is just one good putting week away from contending.

Joel Dahmen

My Bet: +9000
Best Odds Still Available:

Joel Dahmen really grew on me as the week went on. I like that he’s never missed a cut here in four starts, and some uncharacteristically poor recent putting performances have resulted in some nice discounted odds despite him continuing to strike the ball well. I like that he’s already won in coastal, windy conditions at Corales, and I like that his best career putting performances have come on Poa.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:

For now, my code is to auto-bet Sahith Theegala at 100-1+ odds in the state of California. We’ll see if that needs to be reassessed after this swing is over.

Chad Ramey

My Bet: +15000
Best Odds Still Available:

Ramey is my guy this week. He is exactly the profile of player I want to target at this course, as a fairway finder, approach specialist with the ability to make birdies and pop with the putter. I’m not scared away by the lack of course history.

PROPS (3 UNITS)

Last week we went 2-1 on these bets, which made for a breakeven week of Outrights + Props. If I’m not going to hit the outright, I’m perfectly content to escape the week with my money back, living to fight another day in the outright market.

I’m disappointed the DJ conviction play over Marc Leishman didn’t hit. DJ needed to play the final three holes 1-under par to force a push; he missed 12-footers for birdie on 16 & 17, then from 220 out in the center of the fairway on the par-5 18th, he dunked it in the water and left with bogey. Never feels good to lose the conviction bet, but can’t complain after Luke List and Sahith Theegala each comfortably cashed their placement bets. This week, we look to keep that momentum going!

Top-10 Finish: Patrick Cantlay

My Bet: +100
Best Odds Still Available:

I say this assuming that Daniel Berger is not 100% healthy this week, but Patrick Cantlay is head and shoulders above the rest of the field from a talent perspective, so a top-10 finish is my conviction play of the week. He’s not going to put himself in harm’s way off the tee, he should hit a high percentage of greens in regulation, and I would expect him to putt well on these Native Californian Poa greens. Cantlay always plays best in California, and a lot would need to go wrong for ten players in this weak field to finish ahead of him.

Top-20 Finish: Russell Knox

My Bet: +275
Best Odds Still Available:

I nearly made Knox T40 my conviction play of the week, but really liked value on his top-20 odds, so decided to diversify a bit off of Cantlay here. I put the spotlight on Russell Knox in my Pebble Beach tournament preview this week and really think he has the upside to be in contention come Sunday, given his course fit, course history, and recent form.

Top-30 Finish: Chad Ramey

My Bet: +330
Best Odds Still Available:

This is my favorite value player of the week and I really think his profile sets up perfectly for a high finish. Ramey has the ability to finish top-10 in a field in both SG: APP and SG: P on Poa, and consistently puts himself in the fairway off the tee. He’s been known to negate his birdies with bogeys, but if he can keep the big numbers off the card, I think Ramey is in store for a high finish.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Patrick Cantlay

Last week we took an L with chalk Tony Finau missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. I can live with that, because I don’t think there is going to be an obvious place to play Finau for the rest of the season after Torrey Pines, so I don’t exactly feel like I’ve burned a precious commodity. But it is an early hole to dig ourselves out from.

Since we’re in a hole, I’m using a lifeline and taking the 6-1 favorite. Patrick Cantlay is playing the best golf of his life right now, he loves this course, and set the course record at Pebble Beach last year en route to a T3 finish. He’s not a lock to win, but the top talents have consistently found themselves inside the top-10 historically at this event. Cantlay is at his best in California, so if I’m deciding between here or Riviera to take him in OAD, I’ll definitely take my chances against this awful field.

I was very close to taking Maverick McNealy in this spot, as there’s no place you’ll want to play him more than here in OAD, but he’s going to be a chalk choice among 2022 Pebble Beach bets, and I can see a clear path to that disappointing. Beyond Cantlay and McNealy, I also like Jason Day and Justin Rose as OAD considerations this week.

FINAL BETTING CARD

CLOSING THOUGHTS AND STORYLINES

It’s tough to have conviction with 2022 Pebble Beach bets because it’s a Pro-Am event. The competitive nature is kind of sucked out of the tournament when you’re waiting for Willie Nelson’s son to break 90. On the flipside, the decent players in this field like Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Justin Rose made a concerted decision to not play with the Saudi’s this week, which leads me to believe that the top names are here to try and pick up a victory against a very beatable field, and not strictly treat this like a hit & giggle.

With that said, I’m fading those top names, and building out my card to have more exposure to the mid and long-range players on the odds board, embracing the randomness that comes with a pro-am on a windy, coastal course. If Ted Potter Jr. can win this event, pretty much anyone on the board seems viable.

Here’s a look at a few last storylines I’m looking out for at the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Daniel Berger’s Back

Daniel Berger’s back…to defend his 2021 title at this event.

Daniel Berger’s back…was not looking too healthy in the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open, as the Saturday telecast showed him clearly favoring a back injury, rolling around and stretching on the ground in between golf shots. I’m fading Berger this week partially on that notion, so will be interesting to track along how he looks for future betting purposes.

Celebrities in the Field

Josh Allen’s here! Canelo Alvarez is here! Condoleezza Rice is here! We’re going to see a long window of slow golf being played by some really bad players on TV. Like the PNC Championship, I can get behind a gimmicky golf spectacle. It’s not ideal for betting and researching to have to guess how professionals are going to tolerate playing around these hackers, but I’m sure it will be entertaining to watch Thursday through Saturday.

Course History

There’s a pretty strong trend, which I’ve completely ignored, that 10 of the last 13 winners of this event had posted a T20 finish in the year prior. I think there is some points we can give for knowing what to expect out of a very long week of golf with celebrity amateurs, and being able to compose yourself and tolerate that is important. The courses themselves, however, I don’t think necessarily require experience to successfully navigate. I’m staked in the KFT newcomers this week and would not be surprised to see a debutant buck the course history trend.

Good luck with your 2022 Pebble Beach bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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