Patriots vs. Dolphins: NFL Betting Preview – September 13, 2020

Posted By Staff on September 11, 2020
Patriots Dolphins odds spread line Week 1

The New England Patriots (0-0) are 6.5-point favorites when they host the Miami Dolphins (0-0) in an AFC East matchup on Sunday, September 13 at Gillette Stadium. The game has an over/under of 42.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 9, 2020, 8:12 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds

 

Total Facts

  • Patriots games went over 42 points on six occasions last season (37.5% of matchups).
  • In nine games last season (56.2%), the Dolphins games went over 42 points.
  • The total for this matchup is 3.3 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams for last season (38.7).
  • These two teams combined to yield 45 points per game last season, which is three more than the total for this matchup.
  • The over/under for this game is 1.7 more than the average points total for Patriots games a year ago (40.3).
  • The average total for Dolphins games last season was 50 points– eight more than this game’s over/under.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • New England played in seven games last year that went over the point total (41.2% of its opportunities).
  • New England compiled an 8-8-1 record against the spread (ATS) last year.
  • The Patriots went 5-3-1 ATS last season when favored by at least 6.5 points.

Dolphins Betting Insights

  • Miami went over the point total nine times in 16 opportunities last season.
  • Miami found success against the spread last season, covering in nine out of 16 opportunities.

Patriots vs Dolphins: Last Five Meetings

  • Miami has won against New England three times in the past five contests.
  • New England has outpaced Miami 158 points to 95 in the past five contests.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots averaged 4.7 fewer points per game last season (26.2) than the Dolphins allowed (30.9).
  • New England was 8-0 overall and 5-1 ATS when they scored at least 26.2 points last season.
  • Miami was 3-4 overall and 6-1 ATS last season in games where they allowed fewer than 30.9 points.
  • The Patriots offense averaged 43.8 fewer yards than the Dolphins defense allowed last season (354.1 to 397.9).
  • New England was 6-1 overall and 2-2-1 ATS when they reached their season average in total yards.
  • When Miami allowed fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average they were 8-1 ATS and 4-6 overall last season.
  • The Dolphins allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 135.5 yards per game in 2019 compared to the 106.6 rushing yards the Patriots offense averaged.
  • When New England rushed for 106.6 yards last season, they were 5-2 overall and 3-2-1 ATS.
  • Miami was 7-1 ATS and 5-4 overall in games where their opponents rushed for fewer than 135.5 yards.
  • Last season, the Dolphins forced an average of 1 turnover per game compared to the 0.9 times Patriots turned the football over in each contest.
  • New England was 5-0 overall and 3-1 ATS last season when they didn’t turn the football over.
  • When they forced more than 1 turnover in a game last season, Miami was 7-3 ATS and 5-6 overall.

When the Dolphins Have the Ball

  • The Dolphins scored 19.1 points per game last year, five more than the Patriots allowed (14.1).
  • When Miami scored at least their season average, they went 6-3 ATS and 4-5 overall.
  • Last season, New England had a 5-1 record ATS and an 8-0 record overall in games when it held opponents to 26.2 or fewer points.
  • In 2019, the Dolphins averaged 34.3 more yards per game (310), than the Patriots gave up per contest (275.7).
  • When the New England offense put together a game with at least their 2019 average in yardage, they were 6-1 overall and 2-2-1 ATS.
  • In games New England held its opponents to 275.7 or fewer yards last year, it had a 4-1-1 record ATS and a 7-0 record overall.
  • Last season, the Dolphins racked up 72.2 yards per game on the ground– 23.3 fewer per game than the Patriots allowed per outing (95.5).
  • When Miami rushed for at least 72.2 yards last year, it had a 4-2 ATS record and a 1-5 overall record.
  • Last season, New England finished 3-4-1 ATS and 7-3 overall when holding opponents to no more than 95.5 yards on the ground.
  • The Dolphins turned the ball over 1.6 times per game last year– 0.6 fewer turnovers per game than the Patriots forced on average (2.2).
  • In games in 2019, Miami finished with a 5-4 record ATS and a 4-5 record overall when it turned the ball 1.6 or fewer times.
  • Last season, New England compiled a 4-1 record ATS and a 6-0 record overall when it forced at least 2.2 turnovers.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Last year, Cam Newton had 572 passing yards (286.0 yards per game) while going 50-for-89 (56.2% completion percentage) and throwing zero touchdowns and one interception in two games with the Panthers.
  • Sony Michel rushed for 914 yards on 247 carries (57.1 yards per game) while scoring seven touchdowns a season ago.
  • Rex Burkhead added 302 rushing yards on 65 carries (23.2 yards per game), with three touchdowns on the ground over the course of 13 games in 2019. He also caught 27 passes for 279 yards (21.5 per game).
  • Julian Edelman caught 100 passes for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. He was targeted 154 times and averaged 69.8 yards per game.
  • James White had 72 catches for 645 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged 43.0 receiving yards per game and was targeted 95 times.
  • Defensive tackle Adam Butler recorded six sacks, eight TFL, and 26 tackles in 2019.
  • Lawrence Guy racked up 61 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and one interception last season.
  • All Pro Stephon Gilmore picked off six passes while adding 53 tackles, and defended 20 passes a season ago.

Dolphins Players to Watch

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 3,529 yards while completing 62% of his passes (311-of-502), with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 games last year (235.3 yards per game). He also carried the ball 55 times for 243 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 16.2 yards per game.
  • Matt Breida had 123 carries for 623 rushing yards with San Francisco (47.9 yards per game) and scored one touchdown in 13 games.
  • Jordan Howard amassed 525 rushing yards on 119 carries (52.5 yards per game), with six touchdowns on the ground over the course of 10 games in 2019.
  • DeVante Parker recorded 72 passes for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. He was targeted 128 times and averaged 75.1 yards per game.
  • Rookie Mike Gesicki added 51 catches for 570 yards and five touchdowns last year. He was targeted 89 times and put up 35.6 receiving yards per game.
  • Over eight games in 2019, Preston Williams caught 32 passes on 60 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 53.5 receiving yards per game.
  • Kyle Van Noy had a strong body of work a year ago, registering 6.5 sacks, 7.0 TFL and 55 tackles over 15 games with the Patriots.
  • Jerome Baker totaled 125 tackles, three TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception last season.
  • Last season, Nik Needham hauled in two interceptions and added 54 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and 11 passes defended in 12 games.
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