Patriots vs. Broncos: NFL Betting Preview – October 18, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 14, 2020 - Last Updated on October 16, 2020

The New England Patriots (2-2) are a nine-point favorite on Sunday, October 18 against the Denver Broncos (1-3) at Gillette Stadium.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 16. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.com.

Betting Information

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Patriots Betting Insights

  • New England has compiled a 2-2 record against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots are 2-0 ATS when favored by at least five points.
  • New England has played in two games this year that went over the point total.

Broncos Betting Insights

  • Denver has a 3-1 record against the spread.
  • Half of Denver’s games this year (two of four) have gone over the point total.

Patriots vs Broncos: Last 5 Meetings

  • Against Denver, New England has totaled four wins over the past five matchups.
  • Denver has scored 57 fewer points than New England in their past five contests.
Patriots vs Broncos: Last Five Meetings
Date Home Team Total Yards Result
11/12/2017 Broncos 396-339 NE 41-16 NE
12/18/2016 Broncos 313-309 NE 16-3 NE
11/29/2015 Broncos 433-301 DEN 30-24 DEN
11/2/2014 Patriots 472-398 DEN 43-21 NE
11/24/2013 Patriots 440-412 NE 34-31 NE

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots average points scored this season (24.2) and the Broncos points allowed (24.5) are within 0.3 points of each other.
  • When they score average, New England is 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread.
  • When the Denver defense allows 24.5 points or fewer this year, the Broncos are 0-1 overall and 1-0 against the spread.
  • The Patriots hold a 30.8-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Broncos defense this season (396 to 365.2).
  • The Patriots average 5.8 yards per play while the Broncos give up 5.2 per play.
  • In contests where New England hits their average yard output this season, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • When Denver allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall this season.
  • The Patriots average 179.8 yards per game on the ground this season– 70.8 rushing yards more than the Broncos allow (109).
  • When New England rushes for at least 179.8 yards this season, they are 2-1 overall and 2-1 against the spread.
  • This season, when the Denver defense allows less than 109 yards on the ground, they are 1-1 against the spread and 0-2 overall.
  • This season, the Broncos force an average of 0.5 turnovers per game, compared to the 1.8 times Patriots turn the football over in each contest.
  • When New England turns the football over 1.8 times or fewer this season, they are 2-1 overall and 2-1 against the spread.
  • Denver is 1-0 against the spread and 0-1 overall this season when they force at least 0.5 turnovers in a game.

When the Broncos Have the Ball

  • The Broncos score 20.5 points per game, compared to the 22 points per game the Patriots allow.
  • When Denver scores at least 20.5 points, it is 2-0 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • This season, New England has a 1-1 record against the spread and a 1-1 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 29 or fewer points.
  • The Broncos average 50.9 fewer yards per game (306.8), than the Patriots allow per outing (357.7). The Broncos average 4.8 yards per play, while the Patriots allow 6.2 per play.
  • In games New England holds opponents to 357.7 or fewer yards, it has a 1-0 record ATS and a 1-0 record overall.
  • The Broncos rush for 92.5 yards per game– 29.8 fewer per game than the 122.3 the Patriots allow per outing.
  • Denver has a 3-0 ATS record and a 1-2 overall record when the team rushes for at least 92.5 yards.
  • This season, New England is 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall when holding opponents to no more than 122.3 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Broncos turn the ball over two times per game– 0.3 fewer turnovers per game than the 2.3 the Patriots force on average.
  • Denver is 2-1 against the spread and 0-3 overall when it turns the ball over 2 or fewer times.
  • When it forces 2.3 or more turnovers, New England has a 2-0 record against the spread and a 2-0 record overall.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Rex Burkhead leads the Pats with 128 rushing yards (32 yards per game) and has scored two touchdowns in four games. He’s also caught 12 passes for 101 yards (25.3 receiving yards per game) and one touchdown.
  • Damien Harris has 100 yards on 17 carries this year.
  • This season, Julian Edelman has 18 catches (30 targets) to lead the team with 294 yards (73.5 per game).
  • Damiere Byrd has added 14 receptions for 179 yards in four games. He averages 44.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 22 times.
  • N’Keal Harry has caught 18 passes on 28 targets for 166 yards and a touchdown, averaging 41.5 yards per game in four games.
  • Chase Winovich has 2.5 sacks, three TFL ,and 15 tackles over four games.
  • This season, Adrian Phillips has totaled 24 tackles and one interception.
  • J.C. Jackson has intercepted one pass, added 12 tackles, and four passes defended four over games.

Broncos Players to Watch

  • This season, rookie Jerry Jeudy has 15 catches (28 targets) for 234 yards (58.5 per game) and a touchdown in four games.
  • Noah Fant has 19 catches for 219 yards and two touchdowns this season. He puts up 54.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 27 times.
  • Tim Patrick has caught 16 passes on 21 targets for 209 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 52.3 yards per game in four games.
  • Bradley Chubb has collected 2.5 sacks, four TFL, and 11 tackles over four games.
  • Alexander Johnson has racked up 29 tackles and a sack so far this season.
  • This year, Justin Simmons leads the team with one interception and has added 27 tackles, one TFL, and two passes defended four in games.

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