Patriots vs. 49ers: NFL Betting Preview – October 25, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 20, 2020

The San Francisco 49ers (3-3) take on the New England Patriots (2-3) on Sunday, October 25 as three-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 45.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 19, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Information

Total Facts

  • New England and its opponents have combined to score more than 45.5 in two games.
  • San Francisco’s games have gone over 45.5 points on one occasion.
  • The total for this matchup is one point fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams (44.5).
  • These teams surrender a combined 43.7 points per game– 1.8 fewer points than this matchup’s over/under.
  • Patriots games this season have posted an average total of 43.8, which is 1.7 points fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • The average total for 49ers games is 46.3 points– 0.8 more than this game’s over/under.
  • The 49ers are the NFL’s 20th-highest scoring team this season compared to the 25th-ranked Patriots.
  • New England is the league’s 10th-ranked scoring defense while San Francisco is the ninth-ranked.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • New England’s games have gone under the point total in three out of five outings this season.
  • New England is 2-3 against the spread.
  • The Patriots are 2-1 ATS when favored by at least three points.

49ers Betting Insights

  • San Francisco’s games have gone over the point total in three out of six opportunities this season.
  • San Francisco has put together a 3-3 record against the spread this season.
  • The 49ers are just 2-3 ATS when an underdog by at least three points.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots average points scored this season (21.8) and the 49ers points allowed (21.7) are within 0.1 points of each other.
  • When they meet or go over their scoring average this season, New England is 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread.
  • San Francisco is 3-0 overall and 3-0 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 21.7 points.
  • The Patriots hold a 53.4-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the 49ers defense this season (374.4 to 321).
  • The Patriots average 5.7 yards per play while the 49ers give up 5.2 per play.
  • When New England hits their average yard output this season, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • When the San Francisco defense allows less than their season average for total yards, they are 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 overall.
  • The 49ers allow 108.3 rushing yards per game in 2020, compared to the 167.2 rushing yards the Patriots offense averages.
  • When New England rushes for at least 167.2 yards this season, they are 2-1 overall and 2-1 against the spread.
  • When San Francisco limits opposing teams to 108.3 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 overall.
  • The Patriots have committed one more turnover per game this season (2) than the 49ers defense has forced (1).
  • When New England turns the football over twice or fewer this season, they are 2-1 overall and 2-1 against the spread.
  • San Francisco is 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 overall this season when they force at least one turnover.

When the 49ers Have the Ball

  • The 49ers average 2.7 more points per game (24.7) than the Patriots give up (22).
  • San Francisco is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall when the team scores at least 24.7 points.
  • This season, New England has a 1-1 record against the spread and a 1-1 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 21.8 or fewer points.
  • The 49ers average 29.5 more yards per game (368.5), than the Patriots give up per outing (339). On average, the 49ers pick up 5.6 yards per play, while the Patriots allow 5.8 per play.
  • New England has a 1-2 record ATS and a 1-2 record overall when holding its opponents to 339 yards or less.
  • The 49ers rush for 127.8 yards per game– 8.6 more yards per game than the 119.2 the Patriots allow per outing.
  • San Francisco has a 1-1 ATS record and a 1-1 overall record when they rush for at least 127.8 yards.
  • New England is 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall when holding opponents to 119.2 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the 49ers turn the ball over 1.2 times per game– 0.8 fewer turnovers per game than the two the Patriots force on average.
  • San Francisco has a 3-1 record against the spread and a 3-1 record overall when it turns the ball over 1.2 times or less.
  • This season, New England has a 2-1 record against the spread and a 2-1 record overall when it forces at least 2 turnovers.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Cam Newton has thrown for 871 yards, two touchdowns, and four picks while completing 68.1% of his passes (174.2 yards per game) in his first year with the Pariots. He’s also carried the ball 45 times for 225 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 45 yards per game.
  • In five games, Rex Burkhead has run for 142 yards on 35 carries (28.4 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns. Burkhead has also caught 12 passes for 101 yards (20.2 ypg) and one touchdown.
  • This season, Julian Edelman has 20 receptions (on 36 targets) for 302 yards (60.4 per game).
  • Damiere Byrd has tacked on 217 yards on 17 catches, averaging 43.4 receiving yards.
  • N’Keal Harry has caught 18 passes on 30 targets for 166 yards and one touchdown, averaging 33.2 yards per game in 2020.
  • Chase Winovich leads New England with 2.5 sacks, while adding three TFL and 16 tackles over five games.
  • Adrian Phillips has recorded 34 tackles, three TFL, and one interception so far this year.
  • J.C. Jackson has picked off two passes, has 13 tackles, and has defended six passes.

49ers Players to Watch

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 735 yards, seven touchdowns, and two picks while completing 63.6% of his passes (183.8 yards per game).
  • Jerick McKinnon has 211 yards on 41 carries (35.2 ypg) and three rushing touchdowns in six games. He also has 17 catches for 117 yards (19.5 ypg) and one touchdown.
  • George Kittle leads the 49ers with 380 receiving yards (95 yards per game) and two touchdowns in four games this season.
  • Kendrick Bourne has tacked on 17 catches for 271 yards and one touchdown, averaging 45.2 receiving yards per game.
  • Rookie Brandon Aiyuk has added 165 yards on 14 passes with one touchdown, averaging 33 yards per game.
  • Kerry Hyder has 3.5 sacks, three TFL, and 19 tackles this season.
  • This year, Fred Warner has 52 tackles, a TFL, and one interception.
  • Jason Verrett also has one interception, and has tacked on 12 tackles and two passes defended in four games.

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