Patriots vs. Dolphins: Week 1 NFL Betting Preview – September 12, 2021

Written By Staff on September 12, 2021

The New England Patriots (0-0) are set for an AFC East matchup in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins (0-0). The Dolphins (+160 moneyline odds to win) will visit the Patriots (-3.5) on September 12, 2021 at 4:25 PM ET on CBS. The contest’s total is currently set at 43.

In this article we will update you with the best odds available and explain what you need to know to place a bet on the game. That includes key metrics, weather conditions, and injury updates.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of September 12, 2021, 6:12 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patriots Vs. Dolphins Betting Odds

Patriots Vs. Dolphins Player Props

Patriots Vs. Dolphins Weather

Dry conditions (scattered clouds) and 8 mph winds are predicted at Gillette Stadium on Sunday (as of 6:12 PM on September 12), with a high temperature of 74 degrees Fahrenheit.

Patriots Vs. Dolphins Injury Report

New England Injuries

Player Pos. Injury Status
Nelson Agholor WR Ankle Probable
Yodny Cajuste OT Hamstring Out
Jalen Mills CB Ankle Probable
Ronnie Perkins LB Shoulder Out
Raekwon McMillan LB Acl Out
Stephon Gilmore CB Quadriceps Out
Terez Hall LB Undisclosed Out
Jarrett Stidham QB Undisclosed Out
Byron Cowart DT Undisclosed Out
Dalton Keene TE Knee Out
Joshuah Bledsoe S Undisclosed Out
Cameron McGrone LB Undisclosed Out
Anfernee Jennings LB Undisclosed Out
Troy Fumagalli TE Undisclosed Out
N’Keal Harry WR Shoulder Out
Malcolm Perry RB Foot Out
Devin Asiasi TE Gameday Inactive Out
J.J. Taylor RB Gameday Inactive Out
Shaun Wade CB Gameday Inactive Out
Quinn Nordin K Gameday Inactive Out

Miami Injuries

Player Pos. Injury Status
Preston Williams WR Foot Out
Adam Shaheen TE Knee/covid-19 Out
William Fuller V WR Suspension Out
Larnel Coleman OT Knee Out
Lynn Bowden Jr. WR Hamstring Out
Robert Foster WR Undisclosed Out
Allen Hurns WR Wrist Out
Austin Jackson OT Illness Probable
Elijah Campbell SS Gameday Inactive Out
Greg Little OT Gameday Inactive Out
Noah Igbinoghene CB Gameday Inactive Out
Trill Williams CB Gameday Inactive Out

Patriots Offense Vs. Dolphins Defense (2020)

Patriots Offense Stats (Rank) Dolphins Defense
20.4 (27) Points/Gm 21.1 (5)
0.33 (25) Points/Play 0.34 (6)
327.3 (27) Yards/Gm 367.9 (20)
195.3 (30) Pass Yards/Gm 273.3 (27)
146.6 (4) Rush Yards/Gm 116.4 (16)
5.3 (21) Yards/Play 5.9 (23)
7.1 (19) Yards/Pass 8.0 (29)
4.7 (8) Yards/Rush 4.5 (16)
40.9% (16) 3rd Down % 31.2% (1)
54.2% (23) Red Zone % 57.4% (7)
19 (14) Turnovers 29 (1)
37 (19) Sacks 41 (10)

Dolphins Offense Vs. Patriots Defense (2020)

Dolphins Offense Stats (Rank) Patriots Defense
25.3 (15) Points/Gm 22.1 (7)
0.40 (13) Points/Play 0.36 (12)
339.0 (22) Yards/Gm 353.8 (15)
246.1 (21) Pass Yards/Gm 232.6 (6)
105.5 (22) Rush Yards/Gm 131.4 (26)
5.3 (21) Yards/Play 5.8 (22)
7.0 (23) Yards/Pass 7.5 (23)
3.9 (29) Yards/Rush 4.5 (16)
38.6% (27) 3rd Down % 40.9% (16)
58.3% (17) Red Zone % 65.3% (27)
20 (16) Turnovers 22 (10)
34 (15) Sacks 24 (26)

When The Patriots Have The Ball (2020)

  • The Patriots scored 20.4 points per game last season (27th in the NFL), and will be facing a Dolphins defense which ranked fifth in the league (allowing 21.1 ppg).
  • New England had a 0.33 point-per-play average a year ago (25th in the NFL), while Miami gave up 0.34 per play (sixth in the league).
  • The Dolphins allowed opponents to score on 57.4% of their red-zone trips last season (seventh in league). The Patriots’ offense had a 54.2% red-zone percentage (23rd).
  • New England was successful on 40.9% of its third-down plays last season (16th in the league). Miami’s defense gave up third-down conversions at a 31.2% clip (first).

When The Dolphins Have The Ball (2020)

  • The Dolphins’ 246.1 passing yards per game ranked 21st in the NFL last year. The Patriots’ defense allowed 232.6 through the air (sixth).
  • Miami averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year (29th in the league) compared to the 4.5 per attempt New England gave up (16th in the NFL).
  • The Dolphins gave up 34 sacks last season (15th-fewest in league), while the Patriots’ defense racked up 24 (seventh-fewest).
  • Miami was 27th in the NFL in third-down percentage a year ago (38.6%), and will be facing the 16th-ranked New England third-down defense from last season (40.9%).

Patriots Betting Trends And Insights

  • New England put together a 7-9-0 ATS record last year.
  • The Patriots covered the spread twice when favored by 3.5 points or more last season (in four opportunities).
  • A total of five of New England’s games last season went over the point total.
  • New England’s 16 games last season went over this contest’s total of 43 points seven times.
  • The Patriots won four of the eight games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (50%).

Dolphins Betting Trends And Insights

  • Miami compiled an 11-5-0 record against the spread last season.
  • The Dolphins covered the spread five times last year (5-2 ATS) when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.
  • A total of seven of Miami’s games last season went over the point total.
  • Miami played 10 games last season that went over 43 combined points scored.
  • Last season, the Dolphins were the underdog nine times and won five of those games.

Patriots Players To Watch

  • A season ago, Damien Harris churned out 691 rushing yards (57.6 yards per game) and scored two touchdowns.
  • Last season James White ran for 121 yards on 35 carries (7.6 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns. White also made an impact in the passing game, catching 49 passes for 375 yards (23.4 ypg) and one touchdown.
  • Nelson Agholor grabbed 48 passes for 896 yards last season and scored eight touchdowns. He was targeted 82 times and averaged 56.0 yards per game.
  • Jakobi Meyers also added 59 grabs for 729 yards last year. He was targeted 81 times and put up 45.6 receiving yards per game.
  • Last year Kendrick Bourne caught 49 passes on 74 targets for 667 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 41.7 receiving yards per game.
  • Last season, Matthew Judon piled up 6.0 sacks, 9.5 TFL and 68 tackles.
  • Adrian Phillips racked up 142 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two interceptions over the course of his last campaign.
  • J.C. Jackson picked off nine passes and tacked on 46 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 14 passes defended last season.

Dolphins Players To Watch

  • Tua Tagovailoa recorded 1,814 passing yards (113.4 yards per game) with a 64.1% completion percentage last year (186-of-290), while throwing 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.
  • Myles Gaskin took 142 carries for 584 rushing yards a season ago (48.7 yards per game) while scoring three touchdowns. He also caught 41 passes for 388 yards (32.3 receiving yards per game) with two touchdowns through the air.
  • Last year Malcolm Brown ran for 419 yards on 101 carries (26.2 ypg), with five rushing touchdowns.
  • Last season DeVante Parker reeled in 63 passes (on 103 targets) for 793 yards (49.6 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns.
  • Mike Gesicki’s stat line last year showed 53 catches for 703 yards and six touchdowns. He put up 43.9 receiving yards per game and was targeted 85 times.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah boasted an impressive stat line of 9.0 sacks, 10.5 TFL and 59 tackles.
  • Jerome Baker collected 154 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 7.0 sacks over the course of his 2020 campaign.
  • Xavien Howard intercepted 10 passes while adding 62 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 20 passes defended a season ago.

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