NFL Week 13 Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 1, 2022
Bills Odds

The Buffalo Bills face off against the New England Patriots on Thursday, Dec. 1 at 8:15 p.m. ET. This AFC East affair, which is the first contest on NFL Week 13 odds board, showcases Patriots – Bills odds with a spread of Buffalo and on the moneyline. The total is set at .

In this post, we’ll dive into everything you need to know before placing a bet on Thursday Night Football odds, including matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Patriots – Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Patriots – Bills odds table above, click the dropdown menu to switch to moneylines or over/unders. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Bills need to win by four points or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as a 3.5-point road favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Patriots would need New England to lose by at most a field goal or win outright.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

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Patriots – Bills Odds: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. These can also be used as part of TNF Same Game Parlay promos.

Patriots – Bills: Betting News

As of Thursday, the Bills have accrued 77% of the spread handle and 75% of the tickets, respectively. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is trading New England at . Additional updates on the Patriots – Bills odds can be found below.

Bills Vs. Patriots Weather

A high temperature of 35 degrees Fahrenheit, with few clouds and 11 mph winds, are the expected conditions at Gillette Stadium on Thursday (as of 7:17 PM on November 30).

Bills Vs. Patriots Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Dion DawkinsOTAnkleOut68.5
Christian BenfordCBObliqueOut45.1
Von MillerLBKneeOut40.9
Ike BoettgerOGAchillesQuestionable

New England Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
David AndrewsCThighQuestionable54.8
Jakobi MeyersWRShoulderQuestionable50.6
Jalen MillsCBGroinQuestionable47.7
Jabrill PeppersDBIllnessQuestionable37.8
Damien HarrisRBThighOut19.2
Marcus JonesDBAnkleQuestionable18.2

Bills Offense Vs. Patriots Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Patriots Defense
28.1 (2)Points/Gm18.4 (6)
0.4 (1)Points/Play0.3 (1)
415.9 (2)Yards/Gm307.8 (4)
279.2 (3)Pass Yards/Gm198.5 (9)
136.7 (8)Rush Yards/Gm109.3 (9)
6.3 (2)Yards/Play5.0 (7)
7.4 (5)Yards/Pass6.0 (5)
5.3 (2)Yards/Rush4.2 (8)
50.8% (2)3rd Down %38.5% (10)
53.5% (19)Red Zone %51.5% (7)
19 (30)Turnovers18 (5)
23 (8)Sacks37 (2)

Patriots Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Patriots OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
21.7 (18)Points/Gm18.1 (5)
0.4 (1)Points/Play0.3 (1)
325.9 (21)Yards/Gm327.3 (12)
216.9 (19)Pass Yards/Gm221.6 (19)
109.0 (23)Rush Yards/Gm105.6 (7)
5.4 (17)Yards/Play5.2 (9)
7.2 (7)Yards/Pass6.3 (9)
4.0 (26)Yards/Rush4.2 (8)
37.1% (25)3rd Down %40.0% (18)
38.7% (31)Red Zone %48.6% (4)
17 (27)Turnovers20 (2)
31 (22)Sacks30 (12)

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TheLines Podcast: NFL Week 13 Betting Breakdown

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Patriots – Bills: Betting Insights

Why Bills Can Cover The Spread

Despite a narrow win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, the Bills are still accruing the league’s second-most EPA per play — behind only the Chiefs. When you account for their crazy travel schedule after also playing in the Motor City in Week 11, the short-term concern may not be warranted.

Nevertheless, they’re up against a Patriots defense that’s allowing the fewest EPA per play across the NFL. They also boast the second-rated DVOA (per Football Outsiders), which adjusts for the strength of their opponents, on that side of the ball.

New England has been most stingy against the pass. That represents the most explosive aspect of Buffalo’s offense. Specifically, All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs could be in for a challenging matchup versus Jonathan Jones, who represents an elite coverage corner.

Bill Belichick’s defenses have consistently been exposed against mobile QBs throughout his tenure, though. Josh Allen is no exception to that notion. The Pats even struggled to remain disciplined in their rush lanes against the Vikings, and Kirk Cousins made them pay to the tune of the 7.72 Yards Per Attempt (YPA).

Why Patriots Can Cover The Spread

New England may not be set up with the exact same script as Detroit last week, yet it can still have success. Mind you, Buffalo’s defense is surrendering the ninth-highest Success Rate (SR). For context, a play is successful if teams accrues:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

The Patriots showcase a top-10 pass-blocking unit too. If Mac Jones can carry over his recent success, in which he posted the third-highest Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) against Minnesota, his team should be able to hang around.

Given the familiarity between these rivals, taking the points — above a key number — is an intriguing option.

Final Thoughts

I won’t have a bet for this game, but I give a slight edge towards the home underdog — with a spread bet of +3.5 or better. Good luck with your own wagers on Patriots – Bills odds.

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