Patrick Mahomes suits up for his third Super Bowl in five seasons as a starting QB. His Kansas City Chiefs face a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense that laid waste to their two previous playoff opponents. What do in Super Bowl 57 odds expect the Chiefs to do in order to out-leverage such a talented and athletic defense? Below, we’ll look at Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl props and how the Chiefs’ offense schematically matches up against the Eagles.
Continue the Mahomes prop conversation on our Discord channel. Keep up-to-date with TheLines coverage of Super Bowl 57 leading up to kickoff.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props
Bet on any props in the table below by clicking on the odds. For more props analysis for the Super Bowl, visit or NFL Player Props page.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Props
Against the Eagles’ top-ranked pass DVOA defense, Mahomes is lined for passing yards. It’s a lofty total, but what does Mahomes (and the Chiefs’ offense as a whole) do to both set and surpass that total?
Personnel and play concept numbers below are pulled from this video by Brett Kollman.
Personnel Groupings
After losing Tyreek Hill this past offseason, the question became how Mahomes performed without a top-flight receiver. In fact, how would he perform without a real No. 1 wide receiver on his team? Turns out, pretty well. He’s the frontrunner for the NFL MVP Award and set a career-high in yardage.
This is due in part to some creative personnel decisions by Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy. This season, the Chiefs increased their multi-tight end personnel usage by 11%. They run among the most 12- and 13-personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends for 13), but also pass 60% of plays from 13 personnel– by far the highest in the NFL. Thanks to a transcendent talent in Travis Kelce, the Chiefs creatively move around their tight ends and throw very successfully from those packages.
With a bunch of injury questions surrounding their receiving corps, the Chiefs will almost certainly lead into those heavy packages against the Eagles.
Passing Concepts
Because Hill no longer exists to rip the top off coverage, opposing defenses cranked up man coverage against the Chiefs this season. KC faced the fifth-most man coverage on the year, up over 25%. The Eagles run among the most man coverage in the NFL thanks to talents like Darius Slay and James Bradberry, both of whom ran man coverage at or over 26%.
As a result, the Chiefs counter with a lot of “man-breaking” routes (mesh, rub, over, slants against softer man coverage). What those plays need to succeed, though, is time in the pocket. Mahomes logged the second-most pocket time this season (2.6 seconds).
In man coverage, Bradberry allowed receptions on just 35% of targets while Slay allowed receptions on 55% of targets (albeit, on 17 less of them). They both rank inside the top-15 in PFF’s man coverage grade on the season.
Looking At The Offensive Line
It’s almost illogical that Mahomes led all playoff QBs in pocket time this season given that his offensive line allowed the most QB hurries in the regular season (58). It’s even more illogical that Mahomes took just 26 sacks all year (21st-most). Of course, questions surrounding Mahomes’ high ankle sprain will dominate headlines, but he appeared to able to push that injury against the Bengals, missing almost no beats.
Against the Eagles’ defensive front– which nearly broke the NFL’s all-time season sack record with 70– Mahomes will need the ankle to hold up, or we may have a repeat of the 2021 Super Bowl on our hands.
But he led the NFL in throws while moving from pressure this season. We saw it against Cincinnati, particularly on a 19-yard TD pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the third quarter. The ability to move when needed is there, with two additional weeks to heal up.
How The Chiefs Handle Disruptive Fronts
Diving back to October when the Chiefs played the 49ers, Mahomes threw for over 420 yards and KC posted 44 points (73.5% completion). The counter for a defensive front seven featuring Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Dre Greenlaw? Quick plays; jets, slants, rubs, outs, you name it.
Kansas City still ran a majority of their offense out of 12- and 13-personnel in that game. Mahomes still threw 34 passes and tight ends not named Kelce saw just three targets all game. And the Chiefs still scored 44 points.
Metrics To Note
As mentioned, the Eagles’ pass defense is number-one in DVOA and their pass rush generates the second-most pressure in the NFL. Bradberry and Slay have a combined 32 forced incompletions, 21 pass breakups, and seven interceptions this season and both grade out in the top eight, per PFF.
On the flip side, the Chiefs are number-one in dropback EPA and success rate by a wide margin. The passing game is truly a strength-vs-strength matchup. Kansas City is also third in yards per attempt (7.9) despite no real game-breaker out wide. In short, the Chiefs successfully move the football downfield at a consistent rate.
Conclusions
The Kansas City offense is going to face a nasty Philadelphia front that doesn’t need to blitz (15th-lowest rate) to generate pressure (25.5%, second-highest). The Chiefs’ offensive line is going to give up pressures in this game.
The Eagles gave up the fewest passing yards per game this season, albeit with a less-than-exciting cast of QBs faced. If you’re looking to play over any Mahomes passing prop, attempts is likely the best route to go. It may also be wise to go that route if you side with Philadelphia in the game, as the Chiefs will abandon the run game to keep up (just 17 rushing attempts vs. Bengals).
However, playing over yardage is a dicey proposition. The Chiefs average 27.3 points in games where Mahomes throws fewer than his passing total here. Ultra-efficiency is the name of the game for KC and under Super Bowl passing totals like yardage is usually the better play.
BetMGM Big Game Boost For Super Bowl 57
Bet On Patrick Mahomes’ 2+ TDs and Travis Kelce to record 50+ receiving yards and 5+ receptions for boosted odds. This BetMGM promotion is running ahead of kickoff so fans should hop on these odds now. Combine Mahomes player props with one-game parlay odds at BetMGM. BetMGM is one of the best places to be for Super Bowl 57 betting.
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Props
This Mahomes Super Bowl props section won’t go on nearly as long as the last, since there’s less nuance to diving into Mahomes’ rushing props. The only real option offered here is yardage (or touchdown scorer), but there’s a pair of reasons why I’m not looking to bet yardage on either side.
First, the Eagles’ defensive front is freakishly athletic. Haason Reddick has jumped snap counts all postseason long and runs a 4.52 40-yard dash. Typically coming off Mahomes’ right side (left side of the DL), Mahomes likely would have out-pace Reddick off the edge to maintain moving toward his throwing arm. Of course, the ankle inhibited Mahomes’ willingness to run against the Bengals except at the end of the game when it counted the most.
Second, I’m not just willing to blindly bet under his yardage because the possibility exists of a complete offensive line breakdown. Should that breakdown occur– and since Mahomes doesn’t have the luxury of “live to fight another day”– his scrambling could turn into a serious part of his offense.
Patrick Mahomes Cross-Sport Specials
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, there are a variety of cross-sport betting markets. One of them involves whether Mahomes will throw more touchdown passes in the big game than the number of 3-pointers that Celtics guard Jaylen Brown will hit against the Grizzlies on Sunday.
Brown is the favorite at -160 with Mahomes priced at plus money. Memphis showcases the NBA’s ninth-worst perimeter defense, so tread lightly before backing the likely two-time NFL MVP in this market.
