Super Bowl 58 Player Prop Bets: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Odds Vs. 49ers
Patrick Mahomes tries to continue his exemplary playoff performance and master the 49ers once again, this time in Las Vegas. Player props are always a popular angle on betting apps, and Patrick Mahomes props should be no different. We’ll take a look at his rushing, passing, and ATTD odds for Sunday’s showdown, as the Chiefs try to win their third straight game as playoff underdogs.
Patrick Mahomes Props: Full Selection Of Odds
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Patrick Mahomes Props: Passing
Mahomes has a passing yardage prop () right around his season average on a number that’s also right at his median.
One of the biggest question marks around this game is what the 49ers will do schematically on defense. The Chiefs have shredded zone defenses, with Mahomes posting elite efficiency and EPA numbers. San Francisco primarily operates in zone, preferring to keep its blitz rate low (30th in NFL) and trust its front to generate pressure while dropping more bodies into coverage.
That may not be a tenable strategy here. So, does Steve Wilks try to lean on more man-to-man to challenge these Chiefs pass catchers? If so, how well can the 49ers execute a new scheme on short-ish notice?
In the past, the Chiefs have leaned more on their rushing attack against heavy drop schemes. They trust Mahomes to keep the sticks moving and churn out short gain after short gain.
A couple of markets do pique my interest a bit.
First is Under 36.5 for Mahomes’ longest play. The Chiefs have struggled to generate explosive passing plays. They rank 15th in plays of 20+ yards and 17th in plays of 40+. Mahomes has not had a play of 37+ since the game against Miami. If the 49ers do hang back and avoid blitzes, then “Game Manager Mahomes” could continue to show up.
Speaking of, Mahomes has not thrown an interception the entire playoffs. He seems focused on not making mistakes, with the knowledge that he has a strong defense backing him and the Chiefs’ offense can no longer overcome major errors like the old days. As long as the game script remains neutral — and the spread says it likely should — Mahomes should continue taking care of the rock.
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Patrick Mahomes Props: Rushing
A popular trope among prop bettors is that Mahomes will turn up the rushing in the postseason, and you can just always bet over his total. However, while that’s true in that Mahomes ups his average (26.9 compared to 20.2), this number already appears to factor that in.
Furthermore, Mahomes has only surpassed this number three times the entire second half of the season. While he has accumulated a high volume of rushing attempts (six each in the past two games), he isn’t converting into yards at a high rate.
Again, where these stats ultimately land depends heavily on the 49ers’ plan. If they bring out some man coverage and challenge these Chiefs receivers, Mahomes should have some lanes through which he can scramble freely. This may be a prop to bet live if you have outs that offer these markets. Watch and see whether the 49ers have eyes on QB early.
Patrick Mahomes Props: Touchdowns
Implied team totals have the Chiefs expected to score three touchdowns in the game. Most likely, two of them would be passing, which is reflected in the line with heavy juice on Over for Mahomes. That number looks reasonable and probably doesn’t have much value either way.
For some reason, the markets appear to have heavily adjusted Mahomes’ ATTD prop toward a shorter price despite the fact that he hasn’t run in a single score all year. In prior games, Mahomes sat as long as +650 on this prop, usually at least +500. The current price of around +375 doesn’t represent good value. Rather, if you can find a two-way market with No TD, that’s probably worth a look.
Conclusion: Any Value To Be Had?
The most interesting plays to my eyes are Under 0.5 interceptions and Under 36.5 longest pass play. However, the Super Bowl isn’t like a regular game. The coaching staffs have two weeks to prepare. And with a sample size approaching 20 games, the strengths and weaknesses of the teams are fairly obvious.
Since I’m guessing the 49ers aren’t going to clue anyone in on their defensive strategy here, it’s hard to know how this will play out. The only advice I can give for sure is to steer clear of betting on Patrick Mahomes ATTD odds. Aside from that, if you lean toward either of the two plays above, those prices look fair.
Super Bowl odds: Chiefs Vs. 49ers
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