AFC Championship Odds: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bets Vs. Ravens
With the Kansas City Chiefs trying to win their second straight road playoff game, Patrick Mahomes is back in the spotlight, even if KC sits third among the four remaining teams in Super Bowl 58 odds across sports betting apps. Against the Ravens, Mahomes will have to be spectacular. Whether or not he can be? That’s the question one must answer to bet on Patrick Mahomes props successfully this week.
Below, I’ll explain what I’m targeting in Patrick Mahomes props and share available SGP odds boosts. Use our free Prop Finder Tool on TheLines.com to shop for the best prices.
NFL Player Prop Bets: Chiefs at Ravens
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Patrick Mahomes Props Strategy
The Ravens represent a harsher defensive threat than the Chiefs have faced in the playoffs so far. In the regular season, the Ravens were 2nd in Defensive EPA. That wasn’t a balanced outcome, however. They were 2nd against the pass and only 15th against the rush, which informs how the Chiefs will best attack Baltimore.
The Ravens are a run-heavy team, and they rely heavily on their defense. Houston didn’t score an offensive touchdown last week, and they didn’t even get that close. The Chiefs will likely be more efficient, but the way they’ll do so likely won’t be Mahomes. The Chiefs’ passing game weapons are mediocre outside Mr. Taylor Swift and Rashee Rice. On the ground, however, they might have a chance.
That fundamental disbelief in the motley crew of MVS, Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney (if he returns from injury), and the rest is why this seems straightforward. Between the Ravens’ tendency to run the ball and keep a running clock and their elite pass defense, Mahomes doesn’t seem set up for a gaudy day. And that’s where my bets in this game come in.
Patrick Mahomes Props: Under Passing Yards
This number seems low, and if you just go based on recent box scores, it is! But this bet makes a lot of sense. The Dolphins game did see Mahomes go over this number, but remember, the story of that game was the Chiefs’ inability to score in the red zone. Mahomes wouldn’t have needed to throw as much if the Chiefs had been even remotely competent in the red zone.
Against Buffalo, Mahomes went under. Here, the same thing seems likely. The Ravens returned to a much more run-heavy playbook for Lamar Jackson, which keeps the clock running. On the other side, the fact that Baltimore’s rush defense is their (relative) weakness should mean heavy doses of Pacheco. And if that’s the case, he’s just not going to throw enough to hit this number.
The only concern would be a negative game script, which hasn’t recently correlated. The last two regular season games Mahomes has gone under this number were the losses to the Raiders and the Packers. Against Cincinnati, New England, and Buffalo the first time, all as pre-game favorites, he went over this number.
The Chiefs’ path to success doesn’t involve Mahomes passing a lot. Their paths of failure include a lot of scenarios where Baltimore locks down their options. Under makes a ton of sense.
The same arguments for Mahomes going under his yards apply to his completions. The running clock, fewer plays, and the heavy projected dose of Pacheco all point to this being another under for Mahomes.
The one advantage in going with completions instead of attempts is that Baltimore could be very efficient at shutting down the KC passing offense. Depending on how the game goes, the Chiefs could end up down and having to throw riskier, less efficient passes. Between the chances the Chiefs get deep-shot happy out of desperation and the equity the Chiefs’ drop habits give in completion markets as opposed to attempts, Under completions make the most sense as a paired proposition with the under on Mahomes’ passing yards.
Mahomes Anytime Touchdown ()
This is merely a sprinkle, but Mahomes is being priced in the territory of QBs who never run in this market. There’s almost no equity on Mahomes scoring in close, which does hurt. The dislocated knee years ago on Thursday Night Football has made the Chiefs gun-shy.
But Mahomes does run a lot. A 24-yard scamper down the sideline last week was just the latest example. In three of his last four games Mahomes has rushed for 19 or more yards. There’s no reason to think Mahomes couldn’t run one in from medium range.
Given his price is steeper than Brock Purdy’s against the Lions, this has to be a (small) bet.
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