NFL Playoff Odds: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Props For AFC Championship vs. Bengals

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on January 25, 2023
Patrick Mahomes odds

It’s the most talked about ankle in the world. Seemingly everyone has been rushing to bet the Bengals, moving the line significantly from open. Skepticism abounds about the health of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. As part of TheLines’ AFC Championship preview in the NFL playoffs, we’ll take a look at Patrick Mahomes props.

The Cincinnati Bengals are on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs and the game has a -point over/under. Place a bet on Patrick Mahomes props by clicking any odds in the post.

Patrick Mahomes Player Props

For more props analysis this weekend, visit our NFL Player Props page.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Props: Yardage

Obviously, we’re looking at a number well below Mahomes’ season average. The man’s average week this season saw him post 308.8 yards and do so in efficient and meaningful fashion. He was the best QB in the league this season and it wasn’t all that close. He has been arguably even more prolific in the postseason, adjusting for level of competition, with 298 YPG.

The Bengals have done good work limiting Mahomes in recent years. Since bringing Lou Anarumo aboard as defensive coordinator, they’ve held Mahomes to an average of 252.3 YPG. He’s been pretty efficient getting those yards, but 7.5 YPA still represents a dip from his career number of 8.1. So, it seems the Bengals are likely doing something scheme-wise that’s causing the Chiefs offenses some problems.

Ultimately, though, this probably mostly comes down to that aforementioned ankle. Mahomes can sail over this number pretty easily if he looks at least 80% or so. Remember, this prop number early in the week (around 270, currently ), represents a roughly 30-yard discount from Mahomes’ usual price.

But, if he’s limited, we could see Andy Reid lean more on the running game. The Bengals have been beaten there at times this season, so some balance may serve the Chiefs well in terms of keeping the chances of re-injury at a minimum.

Bettors with serious doubts about Mahomes’ status should consider the under. If he proves unable to finish the game, this would likely be a slam dunk under. Remember, he only needs to take a snap and the bets have action.

Attempts, Completions, Touchdowns, Interceptions

The same principle applies here with completions. The markets reflect a skepticism about his chances of doing his usual volume. Mahomes’ prop of 24.5 completions has fairly heavy juice to the under at the time of writing, and he averages 24.8 completions per game for his career.

Again, the allure of keeping Mahomes safe with running plays looms. The Chiefs have been very effective on the ground against Anarumo’s defenses, exceeding 5.5 YPA in each of the past three matchups. The Bengals have likely utilized plenty of light boxes. If that continues, the Chiefs may look to a similar plan.

Touchdown and interception markets expect a pair of scores and reflect an even chance of a pick. Bettors who like Mahomes’ chances of recovery would be well-advised to take over 2.5 TDs and avoid paying the heavy juice on over 1.5. Especially with Cincinnati playing light boxes, this could be an Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon game in the red zone.

Either way, under 0.5 INTs looks like a decent play. If Mahomes gets hurt, this one is a large favorite. If he plays the full game, well, he’s been excellent at avoiding interceptions in his career. He lost his way a bit last year, including against the Bengals in the playoffs (2 INTs). But, he looks well in command of the offense this year and had a borderline top-10 INT% despite his penchant for difficult plays.

Another factor: Reid may tilt the offense shorter and safer if he fears Mahomes can’t drive into deep throws.

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Props

Due to the uncertainty swirling around Mahomes’ ankle, no operator has opened a market on Mahomes rushing props at the time of writing.

He hasn’t exceeded three attempts against Anarumo’s defense and has yet to surpass 25 yards. Bettors should dive into the tape if they want to see whether that’s a legitimate trend or a small-sample fluke.

Coincidentally, that same 25 yards is about where Mahomes’ rushing prop was when healthy against Jacksonville. We may see a number as low as 10 yards or so when markets open. Note that he did have one 4-yard scramble after getting hurt. It wasn’t pretty, and it was the only time he ventured out on his bum leg.

But, keep in mind the Chiefs had the game not exactly in hand, but they weren’t under a ton of pressure to move the ball for most of the second half. If Mahomes’ back is against the wall, and he’s able to play, even a hobbled Mahomes may force the issue a bit more with his legs should the opportunity arise.

AFC Championship Odds: Bengals At Chiefs

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah