Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes has prop bets set for passing yards and completions against the Bills. Here’s some betting insights and tips for those props.
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Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship Player Props
Mahomes’ Game-by-Game Stats
| Week | Opponent | Pass Comp. | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Texans | 24 | 32 | 211 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 2 | @Chargers | 27 | 47 | 302 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Week 3 | @Ravens | 31 | 42 | 385 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Week 4 | Patriots | 19 | 29 | 236 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Week 5 | Raiders | 22 | 43 | 340 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Week 6 | @Bills | 21 | 26 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| Week 7 | @Broncos | 15 | 23 | 200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 8 | Jets | 31 | 42 | 416 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 9 | Panthers | 30 | 45 | 372 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 11 | @Raiders | 34 | 45 | 348 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Week 12 | @Buccaneers | 37 | 49 | 462 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Week 13 | Broncos | 25 | 40 | 318 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Week 14 | @Dolphins | 24 | 34 | 393 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Week 15 | @Saints | 26 | 47 | 254 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Week 16 | Falcons | 24 | 44 | 278 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Week 2 | Browns | 21 | 30 | 255 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
Passing Yards Betting Tips
- Sunday’s passing yards over/under for Mahomes is set at 311.5, 0.7 yards fewer than his season average of 312.2.
- In eight of 16 games this season (50%), Mahomes has thrown for more than 311.5 yards.
- Mahomes has gone over his season-long passing yards prop bet average (307.9) in half of his games.
- Mahomes’ season passing yardage average of 312.2 is 4.3 yards higher than his 307.9 average passing yards over/under.
- Mahomes has gone over on passing yards prop bets in nine of 16 opportunities this year (56.2%).
- This week, Mahomes will face the NFL’s 12th-ranked pass defense (247.4 yards allowed per game).
Completions Betting Tips
- Mahomes is averaging 25.7 completions per game, 2.2 more than the over/under in Sunday’s game (23.5).
- In 11 of 16 games this season (68.8% of his opportunities), Mahomes recorded more than 23.5 completions.
- Mahomes’ season-long average over/under is 24.9 completions. He has collected 0.8 more completions per game than that prop bet average.
- Mahomes has hit the over on completions prop bets in only seven of 16 games this year (43.8% of his chances).
- Mahomes has gone over his average completions prop bet total (24.9 completions) in half of his games.
- The Bills allow the 15th most completed passes per game in the NFL this season (23.1).
Odds and insights reflect consensus player props available as of January 18, 2021. CLICK HERE to place your bet on Patrick Mahomes II or the Kansas City Chiefs at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Odds
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