On Sunday in the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s some insights and tips into Mahomes’ passing yards and completions prop bets.
Patrick Mahomes II Super Bowl Player Props
Patrick Mahomes II Props: What You Need To Know
There’s a handful of players in the NFL deemed “matchup proof” and Patrick Mahomes is one of those players; no matter the scheme, no matter the defensive talent, Mahomes will get at least a share of his. In perfect Super Bowl fashion, he gets his toughest test of the season with the freaky athletic Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. In their first matchup, Mahomes was able to pick on corner Carlton Davis but struggled to move the football in the second half once Davis wasn’t left on an island with Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes’ escapability and tendency to drop 10-15 yards behind the line of scrimmage on long-developing plays make him difficult to sack and neutralize crafty stunts. However, it does make him susceptible to fast pass rushers that bull rush (see: Week 14 vs Miami Dolphins). His incredible arm strength and ability to throw at ridiculously awkward angles usually give the defense fits, although he has been guilty of throwing picks to linebackers.
The Buccaneers field extremely athletic linebackers and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles likes to move guys around. Inside backers Lavonte David and Devin White will sometimes find themselves on the edge and edge rusher Shaquill Barrett has proven capable of playing the Mike backer in certain packages. While none of them recorded an interception in the Week 12 matchup with the Bucs, the threat is always there.
Regardless of the scheme or talent that Tampa Bay fields, Mahomes will produce; he racked up 462 yards and three touchdowns in their first outing (203 yards and all three touchdowns came in the first quarter). Statistically, Mahomes played one of his worst games in last year’s Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers (268 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks). With the first championship jitters far behind him, expect Mahomes to play a much more confident game this time around.
Patrick Mahomes II: Super Bowl Prop Checklist
- Passing yards: O/U 325.5 (-110)
- Passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-400), Under 1.5 (+295), Over 2.5 (-124), Under 2.5 (+100)
- Interceptions thrown: Over 0.5 (+158), Under 0.5 (-200)
- To complete most passes in the game (-167)
- To have the highest passing percentage (-150)
- To have the highest higher passer rating (-167)
- To have the most passing yards (-150)
- To complete the longest pass (-182)
- To throw the first interception (+145)
- To throw the first touchdown pass (-143)
- To throw the most touchdowns (-182)
- Passing attempts: Over 40.5 (-125), Under 40.5 (+101)
- Passing completions: Over 28.5 (+100), Under 28.5 (-124)
- First pass outcome: Complete (-225), Incomplete (+175), Interception (+1400)
- Completion percentage: Over 70.5 (+110), Under 70.5 (-137)
- Passer rating: O/U 105.5 (-112)
- First half passing yards: O/U 159.5 (-112)
- First half passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (+180), Under 1.5 (-230)
- First quarter passing yards: O/U 73.5 (-112)
- First quarter passing touchdowns: Over 0.5 (+138), Under 0.5 (-175)
- To score non-passing touchdown (+260)
- To score first touchdown, non-passing (+2000)
- To score last touchdown, non-passing (+2000)
Mahomes’ Game-by-Game Stats
|Week||Opponent||Pass Comp.||Pass Att.||Pass Yards||Pass TDs||INTs||Rush Att.||Rush Yards||Rush TDs|
|AFC Divisional Round||Browns||21||30||255||1||0||3||14||1|
|AFC Championship Game||Bills||29||38||325||3||0||5||5||0|
Passing Yards Betting Tips
- Sunday’s passing yards over/under for Mahomes is set at 321.5, 8.6 more yards than his season average of 312.9.
- In eight of 17 games this season (47.1%), Mahomes has thrown for more than 321.5 yards.
- Mahomes’ season-long passing yards prop bet average is 308.1, a figure he’s gone over in nine out of 17 games this season (52.9%).
- Mahomes’ season passing yardage average of 312.9 is 4.8 yards higher than his 308.1 average passing yards over/under.
- Mahomes has gone over his passing yard total in 58.8% of his opportunities this season (10 of 17 games).
- This week, Mahomes will face the NFL’s 22nd-ranked pass defense (270.0 yards allowed per game).
Completions Betting Trends
- Mahomes is averaging 25.9 completions per game, 1.4 more than the over/under in Sunday’s game (24.5).
- Mahomes collected more than 24.5 completions in nine of 17 games this season (52.9% of his chances).
- Mahomes has averaged 1.1 more completions per game than his season-long average prop bet total (24.8).
- Mahomes has hit the over on completions prop bets in only eight of 17 games this year (47.1% of his chances).
- Mahomes’ average prop bet for completions is 24.8. He’s gone over that total in nine of 17 games this season (52.9%).
- The 26.6 completions per game conceded by the Buccaneers defense this season is the second most of any defensive unit in the league.
Odds and insights reflect consensus player props available as of February 3, 2021. CLICK HERE to place your bet on Patrick Mahomes II or the Kansas City Chiefs at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds
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