Packers vs. Rams: NFL Playoff Betting Preview – January 16, 2021

Posted By Staff on January 15, 2021

The Green Bay Packers (13-3) host the Los Angeles Rams (10-6) in the NFC Divisional round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs as favorites on January 16, 2021 at 4:35 PM ET on FOX. The over/under is set at for the outing.

Los Angeles upset the NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks 30-20 on the road in last weekend’s NFC Wild Card Round. Green Bay comes off a bye as the conference’s best team from the regular season. The Packers beat Seattle 28-23 in last year’s Divisional Playoffs as NFC North champions before losing 37-20 to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 12, 2021, 1:41 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Packers vs Rams Betting Odds

Packers vs Rams Props

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Betting breakdown

While they were inactive last week, the Packers still improved from +450 to +400 by the odds to win Super Bowl LV at PointsBet. They trail only the Chiefs by the team futures odds. The Rams went from +2500 to +2000 at PointsBet with their win last week, but they still have the worst odds of any NFC team and have better odds than only the Cleveland Browns among the remaining eight playoff teams.

The Packers are favored for the seventh straight game and 14th time in the 2020 season. They covered in each of their final two games of the regular season and played to the Over in each one; they’ve won six straight games straight up. The Rams are underdogs for just the sixth time, including closing at +3 last week in Seattle. They’ve covered in back-to-back games and split the Over/Under.

The 45.5-point total is the lowest since Week 12 for the Packers. They played to the Over in a 41-25 win as 8-point favorites over the Chicago Bears. The Rams had played to four straight Unders before hitting the Over on a line of 42 points with their 30-point offensive outburst last week. The 6.5-point spread will be the greatest margin they’ve been spotted this season.

Green Bay was 10-6 against the spread and covered by 3.8 points per game. It was 5-3 ATS as the home team, covering by 4.8 PPG, and 8-5 ATS as the favorite. The Packers were 9-7 against the O/U and topped projections by 4.1 PPG; games at Lambeau Field went 4-4 against the number.

Los Angeles is now 10-7 ATS after covering as an underdog last week. It’s 5-4 ATS away from home and 3-2 ATS as the underdog. The Rams are 5-12 against the O/U and fall an average of 4.6 PPG below the projected line, but they’re 4-1 against the number as underdogs.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • The points total average for Packers games this season is 54.9, 9.4 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.
  • Rams games average 41.8 total points, 3.7 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Green Bay and its opponents have combined to score more than 45.5 in 14 games (87.5% of matchups).
  • In four (25%) games this season, the Rams have combined with their opponents to go over 45.5 points.
  • These two teams score a combined average of 55 points per game, higher than the total for this matchup by 9.5 points.
  • The Packers are the highest scoring team in the league this year. The Rams have scored the 22nd-most points.
  • The over/under for this game is set at 45.5 points, 3.9 points higher than the two teams’ opponents scoring average.
  • This outing features the NFL’s top-ranked (Los Angeles) and 13th-ranked (Green Bay) scoring defenses.

Packers Betting Insights

  • Green Bay is 10-6 against the spread.
  • The Packers have an even ATS record of 3-3 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites.
  • Most of Green Bay’s games this year — nine out of 16 — have gone over the point total (56.2%).

Rams Betting Insights

  • Los Angeles has an 8-7 record against the spread.
  • The Rams are just 1-2 ATS when an underdog by at least 6.5 points.
  • Just 12 of Los Angeles’ 16 games this year have gone over the point total (25% of its opportunities).

Packers vs Rams: Head to Head

Packers vs Rams: Last Meeting
Date Home Team Total Yards Result
10/28/2018 Rams 416-359 LAR 29-27 LAR

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Rams vs. Packers game matchup

Rams QB Jared Goff (thumb) was forced into action early last Saturday after starter John Wolford left the game due to a neck injury; Goff finished 9-for-19 for 155 yards and one touchdown in his first game back from thumb surgery. Rookie RB Cam Akers carried the load offensively with 131 yards and a touchdown on the ground and another two receptions for 45 yards. The defense returned a Russell Wilson interception for a touchdown and allowed just 278 total yards from Seattle while sacking Wilson five times for 32 yards.

The juggernaut Packers pose a greater threat to the top-ranked Rams defense. QB Aaron Rodgers was the resounding betting favorite for the AP MVP before odds were taken off the board; he’s second by the odds to be the Super Bowl LV MVP behind Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Rodgers finished the regular season with 4,299 yards and a league-high 48 passing touchdowns against five interceptions. He also led the league in completion percentage (70.7%) and quarterback rating (121.5) while adding three scores on the ground.

Packers RB Aaron Jones had 1,459 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns over 14 games. WR Davante Adams finished with 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns in 14 games. TE Robert Tonyan had 11 TDs in 16 games. Green Bay’s offense was first in points per play, third-down offense, red-zone offense, and third in yards per play (6.3).

The Packers will face a Rams defense first with just 4.6 yards allowed per play. The Rams are No. 1 by Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, ranking fourth against the pass and third against the rush. Led by DT Aaron Donald, the Rams were ninth by ESPN’s Team Pass Rush Win Rate but just 16th in Run Stop Win Rate. The Packers’ offensive line was No. 1 in both Pass Block and Run Block Win Rate; Rodgers was sacked 20 times for 182 yards. Green Bay and L.A. ranked first and second, respectively, by time of possession in the regular season.

While the offense afforded them plenty of room for error, the Packers defense was rather middling in most key areas. They were 14th in opponent yards per play (5.5), 14th by weighted DVOA, 20th by Pass Rush Win Rate, and 24th by Run Stop Win Rate. The Rams’ O-line was seventh in pass blocking but just 19th in run blocking.

When the Packers Have the Ball

  • The Packers, on average, score 13.3 more points per game this season (31.8) than the Rams allow (18.5).
  • In games where Green Bay score at least 31.8 points this season, they are 8-0 overall and 8-0 against the spread.
  • When the Los Angeles defense allows 18.5 points or fewer this year, the Rams have put together a 7-0 overall record and a 5-1 record against the spread.
  • The Packers hold a 106.9-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Rams defense this season (389 to 282.1). The Packers average 6.3 yards per play while the Rams give up 4.6 per play.
  • When the Green Bay offense puts together a game with at least their 2020 average in yardage, they are 9-1 overall and 7-3 against the spread this season.
  • When the Los Angeles defense allows less than their season average for total yards this season they are 5-1 against the spread and 6-1 overall.
  • The Rams have allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 91.4 yards per game in 2020 compared to the 132.4 yards the Packers offense has averaged on the ground per contest.
  • In games where the Green Bay rushing attack runs for at least their season average this season, the Packers are 6-0 overall and 5-1 against the spread.
  • When Los Angeles limits opposing teams to 91.4 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 3-1 against the spread and 4-1 overall.
  • This season, the Rams have forced an average of 1.4 turnovers per game compared to the 0.7 times Packers have turned the football over in each contest.
  • When Green Bay doesn’t turn the football over this season, they are 10-0 overall and 8-2 against the spread.
  • Los Angeles’ record this season when they force more than 1.4 turnovers: 5-3 ATS, 5-3 overall

When the Rams Have the Ball

  • The Rams average just 0.1 more points per game (23.2) than the Packers allow (23.1).
  • When Los Angeles scores at least 23.2 points, it is 6-1 against the spread and 6-1 overall.
  • This season, Green Bay has an 8-0 record against the spread and an 8-0 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 31.8 or fewer points.
  • The Rams collect 42.9 more yards per game (377), than the Packers give up per outing (334.1). The Rams average 5.5 yards per play, while the Packers allow 5.5 per play.
  • Green Bay’s record last season when they racked up at least their season average in total yards: 6-1 overall and 4-3 ATS.
  • In games Green Bay keeps its opponents to 334.1 or fewer yards, it has a 4-4 record ATS and a 6-2 record overall.
  • This season, the Rams rush for 13.3 more yards per game (126.2) than the Packers allow per contest (112.9).
  • Los Angeles has a 5-2 ATS record and a 5-2 overall record when the team runs for at least 126.2 yards.
  • Green Bay is 5-2 against the spread and 7-0 overall when holding opponents to 112.9 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the Rams turn the ball over 1.6 times per game, only 0.5 more turnovers per game than the 1.1 the Packers force on average.
  • Los Angeles has a 7-4 record against the spread and an 8-3 record overall when it turns the ball over 1.6 times or less.
  • This season, Green Bay has a 4-1 record against the spread and a 4-1 record overall when it forces at least 1.1 turnovers.

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Packers Players to Watch

  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 4,299 yards while completing 70.7% of his passes (372-of-526), with 48 touchdowns and five interceptions in 16 games this year (268.7 yards per game).
  • Aaron Jones has rushed for a team-leading 1,104 yards on 201 attempts (78.9 yards per game) while scoring nine touchdowns in 14 games. He also averages 25.4 receiving yards per game, grabbing 47 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Jamaal Williams has 505 yards on 119 carries (33.7 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns over the course of 15 games. He also has 31 catches for 236 yards (15.7 ypg) and one touchdown.
  • Davante Adams has grabbed 115 passes to lead the team with 1,374 yards while scoring 18 touchdowns. He has been targeted 149 times and averages 98.1 yards per game over 14 outings.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has also tacked on 690 yards on 33 grabs with six touchdowns. He has been targeted 63 times and puts up 43.1 receiving yards per game over 16 matchups this year.
  • Robert Tonyan has caught 52 passes on 59 targets for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 36.6 yards per game in 16 contests in 2020.
  • Za’Darius Smith has 12.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 12.0 TFL and 51 tackles over 16 games.
  • Adrian Amos has collected 83 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions to lead the team in tackles so far in 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign.
  • Darnell Savage Jr. has picked off four passes to lead the team while adding 75 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and 12 passes defended 15 over games.

Rams Players to Watch

  • Jared Goff has thrown for 3,951 yards while completing 67% of his passes (370-of-552), with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 games this year (263.4 yards per game).
  • Cam Akers has taken 145 attempts for a team-leading 625 rushing yards (48.1 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns in 13 games.
  • Malcolm Brown has 418 yards on 101 carries (26.1 ypg), with five rushing touchdowns over the course of 16 games.
  • Cooper Kupp has been targeted 125 times and has 92 catches to lead the team with 974 yards (60.9 ypg) and scored three touchdowns in 16 games this season.
  • Robert Woods has contributed with 90 catches for 935 yards and six touchdowns over 16 games this year. He has been targeted 130 times and averages 58.4 receiving yards per game.
  • Josh Reynolds has racked up 618 yards on 52 passes with two touchdowns in 2020, averaging 38.6 yards per game on 81 targets in 16 contests.
  • Aaron Donald has notched a team-leading 13.5 sacks, while adding 14.0 TFL and 45 tackles over 16 games.
  • In 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign, John Johnson has collected 102 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one interception and leads the team in tackles.
  • Darious Williams has a team-high four interceptions and has tacked on 43 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 14 passes defended 16 in games this season.

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