Special Packers Player Props: How We’re Targeting Aaron Jones, Jordan Love Longshot Odds
Super Wild Card Weekend brings a special selection of NFL player props. Along with betting on leaders for the entire playoffs, bettors can find markets on the most prolific players on any given playoff week. In that vein, a couple of Packers player props may be worth a look on betting apps for the upcoming game against the Cowboys.
With a total of , this game looks ripe for offense. Could Aaron Jones and Jordan Love lead their respective yardage categories in this potential shootout?
NFL Player Props: Super Wild Card Rushing Leaders
Prices via Caesars Sportsbook
One thing that makes this market interesting is injuries. The Dolphins’ backs are currently off the board as the market awaits news of Raheem Mostert. As of Friday, he had logged three straight limited practices. That puts Mostert on track to play against the Chiefs.
That, in turn, puts serious doubt into Achane’s status as one of the top rushers. Currently priced as one of the favorites, it’s unlikely he leads in yards if forced back into a timeshare with Mostert, who spent most of the season as the team’s lead back.
By contrast, Jones is potentially the lone trustworthy Packer in the RB room. AJ Dillon logged back-to-back DNPs on Thursday and Friday. He hasn’t played in several weeks. With little-used Patrick Taylor the next man up on Green Bay’s depth chart, Jones would likely see every touch he could handle in a scenario where Dillon sits.
And those touches should be quite productive. Dallas’ rushing defense has been repeatedly gashed this year. The Cowboys rank dead last in Success Rate allowed on the ground. The Bills infamously pounded them for 266 yards. Arizona, Detroit and San Francisco also pummeled them.
Green Bay’s offensive line should be able to open some holes here. They rank eighth in Adjusted Line Yards and top 10 in both EPA/play and Success Rate rushing.
And Aaron Jones is finally healthy and peaking. He has ripped off three straight 100-yard games, averaging 5.4 YPA in that frame. Indoors against a vulnerable defense, he could be primed for another big day. Among Packers player props, you could do worse.
Two of the three players ahead of Jones in the market have major question marks hovering over them this weekend. Achane has the aforementioned workload concern. And Devin Singletary, while enjoying a surprisingly productive season, faces a brutal Browns defense.
Kyren Williams seems like a strong bet to rack up some yards. He’s getting every carry he can reasonably handle, and the Rams/Lions tilt figures to be a shootout as well. But his price reflects that, and the Lions are actually strong against the run (top eight in Success Rate, EPA/play, and Adjusted Line Yards).
I like Jones quite a bit at +800, though it may be worth waiting on AJ Dillon news first. If Dillon goes, that will significantly reduce Jones’ chances here. It’s reasonable to gamble that he sits since he’s missed the first two practices of the week. The tradeoff of waiting is that you may see a less attractive price if you aren’t quick to react to an official announcement.
NFL Player Props: Super Wild Card Passing Leaders
Many of the same principles that help Jones’ cause as the potential top rusher also apply to Love.
When teams have been able to protect their passer, this Dallas secondary has been beaten at times, particularly since Trevon Diggs went down. Geno Smith (334 yards on 8.1 YPA), Jared Goff (271 yards on 8 YPA) and Brock Purdy (254 yards on 10.5 YPA) all had big days while absorbing a combined two sacks for 9 yards.
A Packers offensive line that has come together when healthy in the second half of the season should do well here. They rank fifth in Adjusted Sack Rate. Love has taken just eight sacks in six games since the calendar turned to December. He took 22 in the team’s first 10 games.
Love’s corps of weapons also should be the healthiest it’s been in months. Christian Watson said he hopes to play after logging limited practices to start the week. He’s been out since early December. Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed both returned to the lineup against the Bears. This is a formidable group when healthy, helping power Love to No. 2 in EPA/play over the season’s second half.
The main concern here centers around the QB on the opposite sideline. Dak Prescott is favored in the market, and for good reason.
Green Bay’s defense has struggled for most of the season. The Cowboys have the highest implied team total of the week. And they aren’t likely to make their bread on the ground. Tony Pollard simply hasn’t had the season many envisioned, looking like a diminished version of himself following a fractured leg late last season.
Prescott is going to be difficult to unseat. But again, the price reflects that.
Love has been one of the most productive and efficient QBs in the NFL over the back half of the season. Coach Matt LaFleur is in a play-calling groove, and everything is clicking for this offense. The Cowboys are very beatable, and there should be a ton of offense in this game.
Personally, I prefer the Aaron Jones wager. But our own Stephen Andress has bet Love (posted in TheLines Discord on Thursday evening), and I can’t say I hate that play either. I expect Green Bay to have offensive success here and consider them a live dog, which is why I also bet them on the spread at +7.5.
Betting Love to be the top passer is a reasonable alternative to betting on Jones. Especially if Dillon winds up playing, this is a decent angle to attack this game.
Best of luck betting on Packers player props.
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