Packers vs. Buccaneers: NFC Championship Betting Preview – January 24, 2021

Posted By Staff on January 24, 2021

The Green Bay Packers (13-3) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) in the NFC Championship round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs as favorites on January 24, 2021 at 3:05 PM ET on FOX. The contest has an over/under of .

The winner will await either the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl LV on Sunday, Feb. 7.

The Packers throttled the Los Angeles Rams and the league’s No. 1 defense from the regular season by a 32-18 score in the first game of the NFC Divisional Round Saturday, Jan. 16. Tampa Bay upset the NFC South rival New Orleans 30-20 in the final game of the second round Sunday night. Green Bay and Tampa Bay met in Week 6 with the Bucs coming away with a stunning 38-10 home victory as 2.5-point underdogs; the game went Under a projected total of 55 points.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 18, 2021, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Packers vs Buccaneers Betting Odds

Packers vs Buccaneers Props

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Betting breakdown

The Packers share DraftKings Sportsbook’s top odds to win Super Bowl LV at +210 with the Chiefs. The Buccaneers have the worst odds of the remaining four teams at +450. They’re +210 and +430, respectively at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Bucs won as 3-point road underdogs last week. It was their first time closing as underdogs in their last six games. The game finished Under a projected line of 53.5 points as the Bucs held an opponent to 20 or fewer points for the second time in their last five games.

Green Bay is favored for an eighth straight game. It has won seven games in a row, gone 5-2 against the spread, and 4-3 against the Over/Under during the winning streak. The Packers have been favored in 14 of 17 games thus far.

Green Bay is 11-6 ATS and covers by 4.0 points per game. It’s 9-5 ATS as the favorite, 6-3 ATS at Lambeau, and 12-6-1 ATS in playoff games under QB Aaron Rodgers since 2008. Tampa Bay is 10-8 ATS while covering by 4.0 PPG. It’s 5-5 ATS away from home, and 3-1 ATS as an underdog.

The Packers are 10-7 against the Over/Under and top projections by 4.1 PPG. The Buccaneers are 10-8 against the number and play an average of 3.5 PPG above the line. Games at Lambeau have gone 5/4 on the O/U this season and the Packers are 13-6 against the line in the playoffs since 2008.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • Packers games have gone over 51.0 points on 10 occasions this season (62.5% of matchups).
  • Tampa Bay’s contests have gone over 51.0 points on nine occasions (56.2% of games).
  • The total for this matchup is 51.0 points, 11.6 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.
  • These teams surrender a combined 45.3 points per game, 5.7 fewer points than this matchup’s total.
  • The points total average for Packers games this season is 54.9, 3.9 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.
  • The average total for Buccaneers games is 52.9 points, 1.9 more than this game’s over/under.
  • The Packers score the most points in the NFL this season, while the Buccaneers’ offense puts up the third-most.
  • This game features the NFL’s eighth-ranked (Tampa Bay) and 13th-ranked (Green Bay) scoring defenses.

Packers Betting Insights

  • Green Bay compiled a 10-6 record against the spread this season in the regular season and covered against the Rams in their lone playoff game.
  • The Packers have an ATS record of 9-4 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites.
  • Most of Green Bay’s games this year — nine out of 16 — went gone over the point total in the regular season (56.2%).

Buccaneers Betting Insights

  • Tampa Bay had a 9-7 record against the spread in the regular season.
  • The Buccaneers are 7-5 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay’s games have hit the over in nine out of 16 opportunities this season (56.2%).

Packers vs Buccaneers: Head to Head

Packers vs Buccaneers: Last Meeting
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
10/18/2020 Packers Buccaneers -3 55 -148 +130 324-201 TB 38-10 TB

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Packers vs. Bucs game matchup

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, 43, is looking for a seventh career Super Bowl win in his first year with the Buccaneers. He passed for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns against 12 interceptions while completing 65.7% of his passes in the regular season; he went for 199 passing yards with two touchdown throws and a rushing score last week. TE Cameron Brate has been his top receiver in the postseason with eight catches for 130 yards on 11 targets; WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have more predictably both topped 100 yards over the two games, as well.

Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed a resurgent 2020 campaign after the Packers selected QB Jordan Love at No. 26 in the 2020 NFL Draft. The 37-year-old, two-time MVP and one-time Super Bowl champ led the league in completion percentage (70.7%), passing touchdowns (48), and quarterback rating (121.5) in the regular season. He carved up the Rams for 296 yards and two passing touchdowns, along with a rushing score, last week. WRs Allen Lazard and Davante Adams both had TD catches last Saturday.

The Packers’ top-rated offensive line by ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate, allowed Rodgers to be sacked just 20 times in the regular season and not once last week. The O-line also ranks No. 1 in run blocking and allowed star RB Aaron Jones to go for 1,459 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns in 14 regular-season games; he ran for 99 yards and a touchdown last week.

Green Bay’s line will be tested against a Tampa Bay defense ranked fifth by Pass Rush Win Rate and second by Run Stop Win Rate. The Tampa Bay offensive line is just 17th in both pass and run blocking, but the Packers ranked 20th in pass rushing and 24th in run stopping. The Buccaneers are fifth by Football Outsiders’ total defensive DVOA and No. 1 against the run; the Packers are rated 17th overall.

Tampa Bay and Green Bay are seventh and 13th, respectively, in opponent yards per play allowed. They’re seventh and third, respectively, in offensive yards per play. The Packers are No. 1 in time of possession per game; they’re first in points per play and the Bucs are second. The Bucs were plus-8 in turnover differential in the regular season while the Packers were plus-7, but Green Bay’s 11 giveaways in 16 games were the fewest in the NFL.

When the Packers Have the Ball

  • The Packers, on average, score 9.6 more points per game this season (31.8) than the Buccaneers allow (22.2).
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, Green Bay is 8-0 and 8-0 against the spread.
  • When the Tampa Bay defense allows 22.2 points or fewer this year, the Buccaneers have accumulated a 6-1 overall record and a 6-1 record against the spread.
  • The Packers hold a 61.9-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Buccaneers defense this season (389 to 327.1). The Packers average 6.3 yards per play while the Buccaneers give up 5.1 per play.
  • In contests where the Green Bay offense totals at least their average yard output this season, they are 7-3 against the spread and 9-1 overall.
  • When the Tampa Bay defense allows less than their season average for total yards this season they are 4-3 against the spread and 5-2 overall.
  • The Buccaneers have allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 80.6 yards per game in 2020 compared to the 132.4 yards the Packers offense has averaged on the ground per contest.
  • In games where the Green Bay rushing attack puts together at least their season average this season, the Packers are 6-0 overall and 5-1 against the spread.
  • This season, when the Tampa Bay defense allows opponents to pick up less than 80.6 yards on the ground, they are 4-4 against the spread and 6-2 overall.
  • This season, the Buccaneers have forced an average of 1.6 turnovers per game compared to the 0.7 times Packers have turned the football over in each contest.
  • When Green Bay doesn’t turn the football over this season, they are 10-0 overall and 8-2 against the spread.
  • Tampa Bay’s record this season when they force more than 1.6 turnovers: 5-4 ATS, 7-2 overall

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

  • The Buccaneers rack up 30.8 points per game, 7.7 more than the Packers surrender per contest (23.1).
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2 against the spread and 8-0 overall a season ago when the team puts up at least 30.8 points.
  • Green Bay has an 8-0 record against the spread and an 8-0 record overall in games when it surrenders 31.8 points or less.
  • The Buccaneers collect 50 more yards per game (384.1), than the Packers give up per matchup (334.1). On average, the Buccaneers pick up 6 yards per play, while the Packers give up 5.5 per play.
  • When the Green Bay offense put together a game with at least their 2019 average in yardage, they were 6-1 overall and 4-3 against the spread last season.
  • In games Green Bay holds its opponents to 334.1 or fewer yards, it has a 4-4 record ATS and a 6-2 record overall.
  • This season, the Buccaneers average 94.9 yards per game on the ground, 18 fewer per game than the Packers allow per outing (112.9).
  • Tampa Bay has a 5-2 ATS record and a 6-1 overall record when the team runs for at least 94.9 yards.
  • This season, Green Bay is 5-2 against the spread and 7-0 overall when holding opponents to no more than 112.9 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Buccaneers turn the ball over 1.1 times per game, only per game than the 1.1 the Packers force on average.
  • Tampa Bay has a 7-4 record against the spread and a 10-1 record overall when it turns the ball over 1.1 times or less.
  • This season, Green Bay has a 4-1 record against the spread and a 4-1 record overall when it forces at least 1.1 turnovers.

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Packers Players to Watch

  • Aaron Rodgers leads the team with 4,299 passing yards (268.7 yards per game) and has a 70.7% completion percentage this year (372-of-526) while throwing 48 touchdowns and five interceptions in 16 games.
  • Aaron Jones has taken 201 carries for a team-leading 1,104 rushing yards (78.9 yards per game) while scoring nine touchdowns in 14 games. He’s also caught 47 passes for 355 yards (25.4 receiving yards per game) with two touchdowns through the air.
  • In 15 games in 2020, Jamaal Williams has run for 505 yards on 119 carries (33.7 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns. Williams also helps out in the passing game, catching 31 passes for 236 (15.7 ypg) while scoring one touchdown.
  • This season, Davante Adams has 115 catches (on 149 targets) to lead the team with 1,374 yards (98.1 per game) while scoring 18 touchdowns in 14 games.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s statline this year shows 33 grabs for 690 yards and six touchdowns over the course of 16 games. He puts up 43.1 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 63 times.
  • Over 16 games in 2020, Robert Tonyan has caught 52 passes on 59 targets for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 36.6 receiving yards per game.
  • Za’Darius Smith has 12.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 12.0 TFL and 51 tackles over 16 games.
  • In 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign, Adrian Amos has collected 83 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions and leads the team in tackles.
  • Darnell Savage Jr. has a team-high four interceptions and has tacked on 75 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and 12 passes defended 15 in games this season.

Buccaneers Players to Watch

  • Tom Brady has thrown for 4,633 yards while completing 65.7% of his passes (401-of-610), with 40 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 16 games this year (289.6 yards per game).
  • Ronald Jones II has taken 192 attempts for a team-leading 978 rushing yards (61.1 yards per game) while scoring seven touchdowns in 16 games.
  • Leonard Fournette leads the team with 367 rushing yards on 97 carries (28.2 yards per game), with six touchdowns on the ground over the course of 13 games in 2020. He also has 36 catches for 233 yards (17.9 per game).
  • This season, Mike Evans has 70 catches (on 109 targets) to lead the team with 1,006 yards (62.9 per game) while scoring 13 touchdowns in 16 games.
  • Chris Godwin’s statline this year shows 65 catches for 840 yards and seven touchdowns over 12 games. He puts up 70.0 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 84 times.
  • Rob Gronkowski has caught 45 passes on 77 targets for 623 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 38.9 yards per game in 16 contests in 2020.
  • Jason Pierre-Paul has 9.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also added 7.0 TFL, 55 tackles, and two interceptions over 16 games.
  • Devin White has collected 140 tackles, 15.0 TFL, and 9.0 sacks to lead the team in tackles so far in 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign.
  • This season, Carlton Davis leads the team with four interceptions and has added 68 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 18 passes defended 14 in games.

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