Bills Odds: Buffalo To Make Aaron Rodgers Biggest Dog Of Career

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 25, 2022
Bills Packers Odds

Unfortunately for Aaron Rodgers, he can’t tell Packers fans (nor futures bettors) to relax. Green Bay’s 3-4 record (2-5 against the spread) is every bit concerning. As a result, Bills odds show Rodgers in unfamiliar territory in Buffalo.

Packers at Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

When Was The Last Time Aaron Rodgers Was This Big Of An Underdog?

The Packers have never been a double-digit underdog in any game in which the four-time NFL MVP has started. Unless the market undergoes an adjustment, this run will come to a halt. Green Bay is against the Bills on Sunday Night Football.

The biggest underdog Green Bay has ever been with Rodgers under center happened twice during the 2014 season. Both featured spreads of +8.5 at Seattle. On opening night of the season, the defending champion Seahawks came away with a 36-16 win. Later in the NFC Championship game, the Packers lost 28-22 in overtime but covered.

Keep in mind, Green Bay hasn’t been an underdog of 10 points or more since the 2017 campaign — with Brett Hundley starting in Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, Hundley nearly led his team to an outright win, yet the Chris Boswell kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired. Most importantly, the Packers obviously covered.

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Packers at Bills Odds Analysis

Why is Green Bay such a hefty underdog? For one, Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury. Combine that with a banged-up Packers receiving corps, which is struggling to create separation while sorely missing All-Pro wideout Davante Adams.

Consequently, Rodgers owns the 22nd-ranked Dropback EPA among quarterbacks with at least 150 snaps. For context, the only current starters behind him are Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford, and Davis Mills.

Moreover, defensive coordinator Joe Barry continues to see his unit surrender explosive rushing plays. In fact, it has surrendered the league’s highest Rushing Success Rate (SR) since the beginning of the 2021 season. A play is deemed successful if it produces:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

On the flip side, the Bills are the top-rated team across numerous power rankings. They’re also one of two squads with a top-five EPA on both sides of the ball. The undefeated Eagles represent the other.

Buffalo’s hot start has helped generate the shortest regular season Super Bowl odds () since 2020.

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