2025 Oscars Odds, Picks: An Upset In Best Picture?
The 97th Academy Awards are fast approaching. Here are some of my favorite bets for 2025 Oscars odds and my final expert predictions in all 23 categories.
Remember that not all states have betting available for Oscars odds. Consult your local sportsbook to see whether you can access these markets.
2025 Oscars Awards Picks
Best Picture: "Conclave"
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"Anora" asserted itself as the frontrunner in this race when it won with the directors (DGA) and producers guilds (PGA). However, since then, "Conclave" won Best Picture with the British Academy (BAFTA) and, perhaps more surprisingly, won the top prize with the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).
I think the SAG-BAFTA combo of "Conclave" is stronger than the PGA-DGA of "Anora." The producers and directors guilds tend to agree on a winner (perhaps because they're comprised of similar groups of people). In the last 10 years, PGA and DGA have picked the same winner seven times. In that same period, SAG and BAFTA have only agreed twice ("Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" and "Oppenheimer," which won every award in sight last year).
Yes, "Three Billboards" ended up losing Best Picture at the Oscars to "The Shape of Water," which had the PGA-DGA pairing. But at the time, many surmised that "Three Billboards" didn't win Best Picture due to the controversy over how it handled its racist cop character. Too many voters put it at or near the bottom of their ballot, sinking its chances.
I certainly don't think "Conclave" will have that problem. "Conclave" feels like the traditional Best Picture winner you could show to almost anyone and be pretty confident they'll enjoy it.
This is a tough call. But SAG and BAFTA don't agree often, which is too strong to ignore. Another time in Oscar history that SAG and BAFTA agreed: the two groups picked "Shakespeare in Love" over "Saving Private Ryan." And well, you know what happened there.
Best Director: Brady Corbet ("The Brutalist")
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I'm going against established precedent here, considering Sean Baker won the DGA, which has been extremely accurate at predicting the Best Director Oscar in the past.
However, many DGA wins came after wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, or both. In this case, Baker lost to Corbet at the Globes and to Jon M. Chu at Critics Choice, indicating that his support may be softer than the typical DGA winner.
I thought it was pretty telling that while BAFTA gave Best Picture to "Conclave," they still gave Best Director to Corbet, even though Edward Berger ("Conclave") was nominated. At the Oscars, Best Director is usually won by the director of either the Best Picture winner or the film seen as a technical achievement.
Since the director of "Conclave" is not nominated here, I'm going with Corbet. When you learn that "The Brutalist" was made on a budget of only $10 million, it's hard not to be impressed.
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown")
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I'm probably out on a limb here more than in any other category. The whole season, I've felt like it makes all the sense in the world for Chalamet to win this. He's one of our biggest movie stars playing one of our biggest musical icons, and he nails it. He sings in the movie, which Rami Malek didn't do when he won for "Bohemian Rhapsody." He also stars in another Best Picture nominee ("Dune: Part Two"), which can't hurt.
I was ready to give up on the idea of a Chalamet victory when Brody kept winning all of the precursors (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA). But then, when Brody was the established frontrunner at the end of the season, he lost at SAG. I also think some voters will feel like they've already rewarded Brody for playing a similar role (also a Holocaust survivor) in "The Pianist." And maybe Ralph Fiennes ("Conclave"), a highly respected actor, might pull some votes away from Brody.
In 2023, I correctly predicted Jamie Lee Curtis to win the Oscar after she only won the SAG Award. Can the young Wonka follow in her footsteps?
Best Actress: Demi Moore ("The Substance")
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If you were following my Oscar predictions here two years ago, you know I was all-in on Brendan Fraser winning over Austin Butler. I correctly predicted the outcome of that race despite some strong indicators pointing toward Butler. That was primarily based on the theory that Fraser's comeback story would carry the day.
I see a lot of parallels in the Best Actress race this year -- a Hollywood veteran with a strong career narrative against a relatively new face turning in a transcendent breakthrough performance.
Though Mikey Madison does not have the potential boost of playing a pop culture icon, she does have the advantage of being the Best Picture frontrunner. That, combined with the fact that Madison also won at BAFTA, has led many pundits to predict that she will pull off the upset.
But sometimes, you have to read the room. And I think this has been Moore's year since her moving acceptance speech at the Golden Globes. As I said two years ago, it makes sense that the Brits wouldn't be as invested in one of our beloved stars. And I believe the strength of Moore's narrative was confirmed by her win with the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).
I also think Madison, like Butler, is too new on the scene to be rewarded with an Oscar. Another factor that may push Moore over is that she de-glams in "The Substance" — quite an understatement if you've seen the movie. She also appears nude on-screen. So, I think some members of the Academy (particularly fellow actresses) might consider her quite brave for this role.
Moore's movie will most likely win Best Make-Up and Hairstyling, which often pairs with a lead acting win for a transformative performance.
Best Original Screenplay: "A Real Pain"
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Again, I'm going against the stats in this category. A non-Best Picture nominee has never won a Screenplay award in the era of the expanded lineup.
However, "A Real Pain" won't have the issue of being underseen due to Kieran Culkin's likely winning performance.
It won at BAFTA, where it was also not a Best Picture nominee. That proves at least that the non-Best Picture status is not a hard barrier in voters' minds.
"A Real Pain" is the sort of dialogue-heavy movie that often wins screenplay awards.
Part of me wants to go with "The Substance" because it's the most "original" of the bunch. But it just hasn't shown enough industry support in this category.
And I can't shake that the presumed frontrunner here ("Anora") should have won with either Critics Choice, BAFTA, or both.
Writer-director Jesse Eisenberg has been so charming on the campaign trail. And I think with Culkin taking home Oscar gold, voters will want to reward Eisenberg as well.
Best International Film: "Emilia Perez"
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"Emilia Pérez" received 13 Oscar nominations, indicating broad support across all branches of the Academy. Since then, the movie has experienced a fair amount of backlash for various reasons. And if that wasn't bad enough, some offensive tweets from lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian challenger "I'm Still Here" has been gaining momentum, with many more people seeing the film since it got nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress.
But is it enough? I don't think so.
Admittedly, this could be a situation where I'm failing to read the room, but I don't think the controversy will affect "Emilia Perez" much. After all, it's widely expected that "Emilia Pérez" will win Best Supporting Actress and Original Song. So, why should it suffer here? This movie set a new record for Oscar nominations by a foreign language film, so for it to lose in this category would be unprecedented.
Full List Of Picks For 2025 Oscars Odds
- Best Picture: "Conclave"
- Best Director: Brady Corbet ("The Brutalist")
- Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown")
- Best Actress: Demi Moore ("The Substance")
- Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin ("A Real Pain")
- Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña ("Emilia Pérez")
- Best Adapted Screenplay: "Conclave"
- Best Original Screenplay: "A Real Pain"
- Best Cinematography: "The Brutalist"
- Best Costume Design: "Wicked"
- Best Film Editing: "Conclave"
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling: "The Substance"
- Best Production Design: "Wicked"
- Best Original Score: "The Brutalist"
- Best Original Song: "Emilia Perez" (El Mal)
- Best Sound: "A Complete Unknown"
- Best Visual Effects: "Dune: Part Two"
- Best Animated Feature: "The Wild Robot"
- Best Documentary Feature: "No Other Land"
- Best International Film: "Emilia Perez"
- Best Animated Short: "Wander To Wonder"
- Best Documentary Short: "The Only Girl In The Orchestra"
- Best Live Action Short: "A Lien"
Where Can I Bet On The Oscars?
New Jersey, Indiana, Colorado, and Michigan are the states that allow betting on 2025 Oscars odds. They may not have bets for every single award, but they'll have all of the major ones. Not all sportsbooks in these states may offer 2025 Oscars markets, however.
Additionally, users in Canada with access to legal betting apps in Ontario can find 2025 Oscars odds.
Oscars Kalshi Markets
One great place to bet on the Oscars is Kalshi, the first legal and regulated prediction market in the United States. Kalshi has odds for each of the 23 categories at the 2025 Oscars and some interesting prop markets.
Let's take a look at a few of those.
Which Movie Will Win The Most Oscars?
I see a few different ways to attack this one. With no "Oppenheimer" dominating the field, TIE (34% chance) looks like a decent bet. One nice thing about betting for a tie is that you're not dependent on the success of any one film.
Any two of "Anora," "The Brutalist," "Conclave," and "Emilia Pérez" could reasonably end up with three Oscars at the end of the night. So, there are plenty of pathways for this bet to pay off.
Another angle: if you think "Anora" will underperform like I do, you could bet the "Anora" NO side (70% chance). A movie would likely need at least four Oscars to have the most wins on the night (without a tie). "Anora" could win Best Picture but still not win four Oscars, so this bet could come through even on a good night for "Anora."
Or, if you want a true longshot, there might be value in "Emilia Pérez" here (4% chance). I think there's a very good chance it will win three Oscars (Supporting Actress, Song, International), and with 13 nominations, there are many opportunities for it to pick up one more.
Click here to get a Kalshi bonus when starting your account, and sign up for our free Oscars contest to win $50!
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