The film industry saw some important awards results this past weekend. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) gave “Everything Everywhere All At Once” a boost and the British Academy (BAFTA) sent their love to “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” and “Elvis.” As a result, there have been some significant line shifts in Oscars odds.
My views on some of the races have changed. Let’s take a look at the five categories that have been impacted the most. For my thoughts on the other categories, make sure you check out my thorough rundown on every Academy Awards market at legal sportsbooks.
Best Director
Last week, I wrote: “I don’t see Spielberg taking this… My current prediction: The Daniels. I actually feel a bit better about this than I do about Best Picture…”
After their win at the DGA awards on Saturday, the line on the Daniels has moved from -200 to -1200, while Spielberg’s price has moved from +160 to +600. The DGAs are historically a very good predictor of the Oscar for Best Director: 66 out of 74 winners of this award have gone on to win the big one. Yes, the Daniels took a small hit when they lost at the BAFTAs on Sunday. But their competition failed to gain any ground because the BAFTA winner, Edward Berger of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” did not receive a nomination at the Oscars.
My current prediction: the Daniels. If Spielberg was going to be a factor, I’m pretty sure his colleagues in the Directors Guild would have had his back. This race has all but ended.
Best Actor
Last week I wrote: “Butler has probably the most Oscar-friendly role of the year… I would put Farrell at No. 3 in this race… My current prediction: Fraser. Given the perception out there that this is a three-horse race, I wish the price on Fraser were better…”
Well, I got my wish for a more favorable line for Brendan Fraser. But, he stands on much shakier ground after having lost at the BAFTAs to Austin Butler, whose odds have shortened from +275 to +100. Meanwhile, Colin Farrell has slipped from +275 to +550. He had been widely expected to win the BAFTA due to his perceived home-field advantage, especially given the surprise wins of Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan in the supporting actor categories. It seems unlikely that he’d win at the Oscars when he couldn’t win with the British Academy, so he’s probably out of the running.
It’s down to Fraser or Butler in my eyes.
At the moment, the majority of Oscar prognosticators would tell you this line is just plain wrong. They’d say Butler should be considered the favorite. And honestly, they’d have a decent argument. Unlike televised awards shows like the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, both composed of journalists, the BAFTAs are voted on by members of the film industry (some of whom will also be voting on the Oscars). So it’s definitely significant that they chose Butler over Farrell and Fraser. However, this season another industry group will have the last word: the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).
In their 28-year history (with a total of 112 awards given out in the 4 acting categories), the SAGs have matched the BAFTA winner 53 times. Forty-eight of those 53 double-winners also won the Oscar. So, if SAG gives their Best Actor prize to Butler, that’s pretty much the ballgame. What has happened when BAFTA and SAG have disagreed? The SAG winner won the Oscar 33 times, compared to only 18 Oscar wins for the BAFTA winner. Of course, Brendan Fraser hasn’t won the SAG yet. But if he does, I think he will have a good shot at winning the Oscar.
My current prediction: Fraser, but with a caveat. Based on the consensus view in Oscar-world, this is probably a bad line for Fraser and a great price for Butler. But I just can’t shake the notion that Brendan Fraser’s comeback narrative is the kind of thing that only comes around once every few decades. And the losses of frontrunners Ke Huy Quan and Angela Bassett at the BAFTAs might be an indication that career narratives don’t hold as much power across the pond, especially when it comes to Hollywood stars. If Fraser can rebound from the BAFTA loss with a SAG win, I’ll feel really good about his chances. Bonus points if he can earn a standing ovation from his fellow actors.
Best Film Editing
Last week I wrote: “If we’re looking for the movie with the ‘most editing,’ you could certainly argue that it’s ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once’… ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ seems a better fit with the recent winners in this category… My current prediction: ‘Top Gun: Maverick.’ Based on recent trends in this category, I think it should actually be considered the favorite here…”
The lines actually haven’t moved that much here, with “Everything Everywhere All At Once” maintaining its status as a slight favorite over “Top Gun: Maverick.” However, my view on this category has changed after “Everything Everywhere All At Once” won at the BAFTAs over “Top Gun: Maverick” and “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Especially after the latter received seven awards on the night. I think the analysis that led me to originally predict “Top Gun: Maverick” still has merit, but at this point I can’t ignore the fact that “Everything Everywhere All At Once” simply keeps winning in this category.
My current prediction: “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” Sure, the movie may not be the type of big-budget spectacle that would warrant a Best Sound nomination. But, I think in this case statistical trends are outweighed by what the various voting bodies are telling us. The Oscar winner for Best Editing usually wins at either BAFTA or Critics Choice. So taking both of these awards is quite a strong combination. Recently “Sound of Metal” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” both won the Oscar after doing the same.
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Last week I wrote: “Completely transformational make-up often wins this category… Will the voters feel that the task of turning Austin Butler into Elvis had a higher degree of difficulty? My current prediction: ‘The Whale.’ We often see this category paired with a lead acting win…”
In a similar story to Best Editing, “Elvis” has now won Best Makeup and Hairstyling at both the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. Despite my initial read on this category, I can’t look past that win package. The last five films to win both of these awards later won the Oscar (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Bombshell,” “Darkest Hour,” and “Mad Max: Fury Road.”)
My current prediction: “Elvis.” In retrospect, it makes sense that the sheer scale of “Elvis” would impress awards voters. And it always had the built-in advantage of being a Best Picture nominee. It also doesn’t hurt that Austin Butler’s chances to win Best Actor have improved. But, these two categories don’t always go hand-in-hand. Viola Davis in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Charlize Theron in “Bombshell,” and Christian Bale in “Vice” all lost their respective Oscar races, even though their films won Best Makeup. Meanwhile, Oscar winners Renée Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio couldn’t carry “Judy,” “Joker,” or “The Revenant” to wins here.
Best Documentary Feature
Last week I wrote: “‘All the Beauty and the Bloodshed’ may not have as much broad appeal with the Academy as what it’s up against… ‘Navalny’ could be seen as the ‘important’ film…’Fire of Love’ is a crowd-pleasing movie about husband-and-wife volcanologists… My current prediction: ‘Fire of Love’… Based on recent winners of this category, I’m going with the feel-good choice…”
“Fire of Love” won with the Directors Guild and “Navalny” won at the BAFTAs. Which is why the odds for those films have shortened. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” is no longer the betting favorite. At the BAFTAs, an anti-war film (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) dominated, and many stars wore blue ribbons in show of support for refugees. Director Edward Berger even referenced the ongoing war in Ukraine in an acceptance speech. Given that sentiment in the air, it makes sense that “Navalny” won there. But I’m not sure the timely subject matter will have quite as strong a pull with Oscar voters.
My current prediction: “Fire of Love.” The logic for “Navalny” makes sense, and it could definitely win the Oscar. But my gut feeling is that “Fire of Love” will win the hearts of the Academy. Also, the movie made $1.8 million in theaters, which makes it a solid box office hit by documentary standards. Another metric to give you an idea of the film’s overall popularity with audiences: it has a 4.0 average with over 50,000 reviews on Letterboxd. “Navalny” has a 3.8 average, with less than 15,000 reviews.
