Oscars Odds: Predictions For More Than 20 Academy Awards Bets

Less than a month remains until the presentation of the 95th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 12. With the sports calendar in a bit of lull between the Super Bowl and March Madness, that makes now the perfect time to look at Oscars odds.

Americans can legally bet on the Oscars at BetMGM Sportsbook. TheLines special guest author Alex Jacob — one of the most decorated “Jeopardy!” players in history — took a stab at making predictions for more than 20 Academy Awards, while running through the odds for each one.

Special Oscars Odds Podcast

Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

This film clearly has the momentum right now. In terms of precursor wins (mostly given out by various critics groups, thanks to NextBestPicture for tracking these), it leads all films with 31, compared to only 10 for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” four for “TÁR,” two for “The Fabelmans,” two for “Top Gun: Maverick” and two for “Triangle of Sadness.”

Though “Everything Everywhere All at Once” lost at the Golden Globes, it dominated the more recently televised Critics Choice Awards. There, it won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, and Best Supporting Actor. It overperformed on Oscar nominations morning, leading all films with 11. It’s also the kind of feel-good movie that the Academy often goes for here. Especially compared to downbeat movies like “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “TÁR.”

For Best Picture, being the frontrunner is a double-edged sword. It’s a good thing because of perception of being worthy of the top prize. Voters have a natural tendency to want to back a winner. But, it’s a bad thing (at least in recent years) because you have a target on your back. A “frontrunner fatigue” often seems to set in. The fact is, all of the stats I just laid out for “Everything Everywhere” being the favorite also applied to “The Power of the Dog” last year. That film still ended up losing.

And while I think “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has that feel-good quality, I think older voters (who make up a significant chunk of the Academy) might have a tough time with it. This movie features parallel universes, hot dog fingers, and butt plugs. I’m not exactly jumping to recommend this one to my parents. That seems a bad sign.

Since 2009, Best Picture voting has used what’s called a preferential ballot. Everyone ranks all the movies, rather than just voting for their favorite. So voters who really dislike this movie will rank it No. 10. And since it’s the frontrunner, they may feel like that’s what they have to do to prevent it from winning.

The Banshees of Inisherin

“The Banshees of Inisherin” is the clear No. 2 right now, as the only other movie to get nominated at all five major precursors (BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, PGA, and SAG). It did beat “Everything Everywhere All at Once” head-to-head at the Golden Globes. But, any momentum gained effectively stopped when the film got completely shut out at the Critics Choice Awards. It will most likely need a boost from the hometown crowd at the BAFTAs this weekend to stay in contention for the Oscar.

Top Gun: Maverick

“Top Gun: Maverick” missed Oscar nominations for directing, acting, and (shockingly) cinematography. It also didn’t get nominated for the Best Picture categories at either BAFTA or SAG. You have to go all the way back to “Braveheart” in 1996 to find a movie that did that and still won Best Picture. My personal feeling is that it’s unlikely an action blockbuster like “Top Gun: Maverick” has the gravitas that you generally need to win this category. That being said, if “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is too weird for the Academy and “The Banshees of Inisherin” too grim, “Top Gun: Maverick” could stand in the best position to benefit.

The Fabelmans

“The Fabelmans” did horribly with the Brits this year, only picking up one BAFTA nomination for its screenplay. It also unexpectedly did not get nominated at the Oscars for its editing or cinematography, another sign of the film’s overall lack of support. I mean, “The Fabelmans” actually has a sequence where we watch the main character edit a film on screen, and the movie still couldn’t get enough votes from the editors in the Academy to get nominated in that category. I don’t think the personal narrative of director Steven Spielberg will be enough to put his movie over the top.

TÁR

“TAR” is an interesting flyer at this price. As I mentioned earlier, it doesn’t feel like the type of movie that generally wins Best Picture. However, it’s worth noting that it’s the only Best Picture nominee also nominated for directing, acting, screenplay, editing, and cinematography. Not even the top two frontrunners can say that. And it impressively won the top prize of the major film critics groups of Los Angeles, New York, London, and the National Society of Film Critics. I wouldn’t say it’s really “in the conversation” for Best Picture at the moment, which is why it’s at +3500, but if the movie picks up a surprise win at DGA, BAFTA, or PGA, watch out.

My current prediction: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” But I’m not gonna lie, I’m worried. There’s clearly a lot of love out there for this movie and its cast, but I can easily see it being ranked low on a lot of ballots. I’m passing at -300, but I think it’s close.

Best Director

The Daniels

The Daniels have by far the most precursor wins (34, compared to five for Field, three for Spielberg, two for McDonagh, and one for Östlund). They won the Critics Choice Award, and their film is the favorite for Best Picture. Also, I think an inventive, ambitious movie like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” will be seen by the Academy as a directorial achievement. I actually think the Daniels could still win this even if “Everything Everywhere All at Once” doesn’t win the top prize.

If the Daniels win Best Director, they would be only the third duo in Oscars history to do so (Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for “West Side Story” and the Coen brothers for “No Country for Old Men”). Does the Academy have something against two-person directorial teams? Probably not, but more importantly, the Daniels are first-time nominees at the Oscars. Their only other film was about a farting corpse (no, I’m not making that up). Will some Oscar voters not take them seriously enough for the prestigious Best Director award?

Steven Spielberg

Obviously, one of the greatest film directors of all time lurks in this category. Believe it or not, he’s only won this award twice out of nine nominations. Adding to Spielberg’s narrative is that this time around, he made a very personal film about his own life story. Narratives can have a strong effect on Oscar voting, but usually more so for actors than directors. Narrative alone often can’t carry someone to a Best Director win. Almost always, their film was considered one of the top two for Best Picture (Jane Campion for “The Power of the Dog,” Alfonso Cuarón for “Roma,” Damien Chazelle for “La La Land,” to name a few recent examples).

Not only is “The Fabelmans” not in the top two for Best Picture, but Spielberg hasn’t managed to pick up the precursor wins like Campion, Cuarón, and Chazelle did. For that reason, I don’t see Spielberg taking this. But if anyone has a big enough name to overcome history in this category, it’s him.

Martin McDonagh

McDonagh is actually a little tempting. Follow my logic here. If you believe “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is vulnerable for Best Picture, and you agree “The Banshees of Inisherin” has the best chance of taking it down, then in that scenario there’s at least some chance that McDonagh would come along for the ride in Best Director.

Todd Field

Field has gotten some buzz recently online as a trendy pick to possibly upset in this category. Mostly for the reasons I laid out for “TÁR” in Best Picture. Like McDonagh, Field also has the respect of the Academy, as he received Oscar nominations for both of his previous films (“In the Bedroom,” “Little Children”). But, I think “TÁR” is probably going to have to move up a lot in the Best Picture race to have a serious shot at leapfrogging the Daniels and Spielberg. I’d rather take the +3500 in Best Picture.

My current prediction: The Daniels. I actually feel a bit better about this than I do about Best Picture, mostly because the Daniels don’t have to survive the preferential ballot. In this category, if they get the most No. 1 votes, then they win. And with the passion out there for “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” I think they will.

Best Actor

Brendan Fraser

Fraser comes in off a win at the Critics Choice Awards. There, he gave one of the most emotional and moving speeches I have seen in all my years watching these shows. Comeback narratives didn’t help Mickey Rourke, Sylvester Stallone, or Michael Keaton win the Oscar. But, I think the particular circumstances of Fraser’s story will garner a lot of sympathy from the Academy. It’s also not all about narrative for Fraser. The Oscars love a transformational performance. And while he trails Colin Farrell in precursor wins (17, to Farrell’s 33), he’s in a solid second place, indicating that there’s a strong consensus behind him being one of the best performances of the year.

The biggest knock against Fraser: unlike “Elvis” and “The Banshees of Inisherin,” The Whale did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Not since Jeff Bridges in 2010 for “Crazy Heart” has someone won Best Actor for a movie not nominated for Best Picture. However, if you expand and look at both leading actor categories, it’s been much more common. Jessica Chastain, Renée Zellweger, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett and Meryl Streep all won for non-Best Picture films in that span.

Austin Butler

Butler has probably the most Oscar-friendly role of the year. The Oscars love to give trophies for playing a real-life icon, especially in a musical biopic.

I think there is plenty of love for this performance. However, Austin Butler is only 31, and he’s a relatively new face in the film industry. And as silly as it sounds, it might be worth asking: do the largely older male voters of the Academy have a bias against hunky young actors? Recent young Best Actor winners Rami Malek, Eddie Redmayne and Adrien Brody, while obviously movie-star handsome, are arguably not the traditional heartthrob prototype. Robert Redford, Cary Grant and Tom Cruise never won. Paul Newman, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt couldn’t win until they were older. Also, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Butler hasn’t won a single precursor award besides the Golden Globe. Historically, the winner in this category tends to fare better with the various critics groups.

Colin Farrell

Farell is probably the most respected actor of the top three contenders. And he’s in the most-liked movie. His best chance of winning this is probably to get carried by the love for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” But I would put him at No. 3 in this race, mostly because his performance is a lot less showy than the turns of Fraser and Butler. When looking at the past winners of this award, I really can’t see a subtle, comedic performance like Farrell’s breaking through here.

My current prediction: Fraser. When I think about The “Banshees of Inisherin,” I think about the writing first. And when I think about “Elvis,” I think about the crafts and the spectacle. But “The Whale” is all about Brendan Fraser and his performance. Given the perception out there that this is a three-horse race, I wish the price on Fraser were better. But, I still think -165 is good enough to pull the trigger now.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett

Blanchett is widely considered one of the best actresses of her generation, and many have called this her best performance to date. Though she’s slightly behind Yeoh in precursor wins (29 to 23), she defeated Yeoh at the Critics Choice Awards, despite that voting body’s overwhelming love for “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” You’d think if Blanchett were going to lose, it would have happened there.

But, Blanchett already has two Oscars. So, voters may not have a sense of urgency to give her a third. She also raised eyebrows recently with her Critics Choice acceptance speech, in which she basically said that we should do away with awards shows. Easy to say when you’ve already won the big one twice, Cate. However, I personally think both of these concerns are overblown. Just recently, the Academy saw fit to give Frances McDormand her third Oscar, and she had the same “does she even want to win this?” energy.

Michelle Yeoh

Yeoh, a beloved actress who’s had a great career, has the benefit of the film favored to win Best Picture. In most years, that narrative alone would make her a solid favorite to win. This year, she happens to be up against one of the Academy’s favorite actresses (it’s Blanchett’s eighth nomination) in one of the defining roles of her career. Look for the SAG Awards as potentially Yeoh’s last chance to stop Blanchett’s momentum. If she can’t win there, it’s probably all over.

My current prediction: Tár. Lydia Tár will win the Oscar for playing herself in the movie “TÁR.” That’s how good Cate Blanchett was in this movie. Maybe I’m underestimating the strength of Yeoh’s narrative. But, my gut is that Blanchett is undeniable this year. Like Fraser, I think this price will only get worse as Blanchett continues to win. I’m happy to get in at -175.

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan

Quan seems to have everything going for him. He’s dominated the precursor awards, he has a great comeback narrative (remember him in “The Goonies” and those Indiana Jones movies?), and he’s got a showy role in the Best Picture frontrunner. This feels close to a lock.

Judd Hirsch

Hirsch also has a great story this year, being nominated for the first time in 42 years, the longest ever gap between Oscar noms. Have I mentioned that there are a lot of older voters in the Academy? I know I just said this category was a lock for Ke Huy Quan, but if I’ve learned anything from watching the Oscars, it’s that even the locks aren’t really locks (just ask Glenn Close). The Oscars will be the first time that Quan goes head-to-head with Hirsch without Paul Dano in the category (so Hirsch won’t have to worry about splitting votes with the other actor from “The Fablemans”).

My current prediction: Quan. Judd Hirsch pipe dream notwithstanding, I think Ke Huy Quan has this in the bag. If you can stomach laying 1-to-12, it’s probably a positive expected value bet.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett

Bassett also has a great comeback narrative in a year of comeback narratives, having received her first Oscar nomination since “What’s Love Got to Do with It” 30 years ago. She seems the clear frontrunner after winning at the televised Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Though her screen time is relatively short in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” it’s impactful. I think the narrative is starting to build that this is Angela Bassett’s year. If she wins, it will be as much out of love for her entire career as for the strength of this one performance.

The problem is, not only is Bassett in a non-Best Picture nominee, she’s in an MCU movie. They gave Oscars to two different Jokers, so they obviously aren’t above giving a big award to a performance in a comic book movie. But, do they see Marvel in a different light? It’s worth mentioning that besides the first “Black Panther,” the MCU has done quite poorly at the Oscars, even in the Best Visual Effects category.

Kerry Condon

Condon actually leads the field in terms of precursor wins with 17 (Bassett has six). And besides being in a top-two Best Picture contender, she has one other thing going for her: she’s the only actress from the British Isles nominated in this category. So, she may get the lion’s share of votes from across the pond. When Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Glenn Close in 2019, she was also the only British actress in the category. But like Colin Farrell, her performance doesn’t scream Oscar to me. If they have to show a clip of Condon’s performance, I’m not sure what they would pick.

My current prediction: Bassett. But I don’t think I’m confident enough at -400 (Editor’s note: markets moved Bassett even shorter after this article was written). It does feel like Bassett’s time. But, “Black Panther” couldn’t even get nominated for an acting award, and that was a Best Picture nominee.

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

“The Banshees of Inisherin” is tied with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” with 23 precursor wins each. And they split the major televised awards so far.

But I give “The Banshees of Inisherin” the slight edge for a few reasons. First, McDonagh’s last movie (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) also was a contender for Best Picture. This being his third nomination for Best Original Screenplay, there may be some residual appreciation for him. Second, in the same way that “Everything Everywhere All at Once” might be seen as a directorial achievement, “The Banshees of Inisherin” could be seen as a writer-driven movie. It’s more dialogue-heavy than the action-packed “Everything Everywhere.” Lastly, in recent years the screenplay awards have often served as a consolation prize for a respected auteur who seemingly wasn’t going to win Best Picture or Director.

If “Everything Everywhere All At Once” looks strong for Best Picture and the Daniels seem solid favorites for Best Director, that could actually create the perceived need to honor McDonagh here.

Everything Everywhere All At Once

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” might actually be a more stereotypical winner here. A good rule of thumb for some Oscar categories: replace the word “Best” with “Most.” Then, ask yourself who would win. So, “Best Editing” becomes “Most Editing,” for example.

In this case, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the most original screenplay. And despite what I argued above, there have been times when Best Screenplay gets swept up in the overall love for the Best Picture winner (“Green Book” and “Birdman,” for example). I could see this one going either way.

My current prediction: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” but not super confidently. Given the close odds, it’s no surprise that this is one of the biggest toss-ups on the board. When it comes down to it, I don’t think they will let Martin McDonagh walk away empty-handed again.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

“Women Talking” has a strong lead in precursor wins with 15, compared to only two for “All Quiet on the Western Front” and none for “Top Gun: Maverick.” It’s also one of only three Best Picture nominees in this category. We rarely see a non-Best Picture nominee win here. Sarah Polley also fits the bill of a respected auteur winning a consolation prize (she was also nominated for Best Screenplay in 2009 for “Away from Her”). The one thing against “Women Talking” is that it failed to get nominated at the BAFTAs. But, it got shut out of all categories there, so maybe not enough British voters were able to see it before the nominations.

All Quiet on the Western Front

“All Quiet on the Western Front” is a war movie, and war movies almost never win screenplay awards at the Oscars. I think they are generally just not thought of as writers’ movies. You have to go all the way back to 1971, when “Patton” and “M*A*S*H” won the two screenplay awards. “All Quiet on the Western Front” did get nominated at the BAFTAs over “Women Talking,” but the BAFTAs nominated “All Quiet” for basically everything. So, I don’t think that necessarily indicates strength for the screenplay.

Top Gun: Maverick

“Top Gun: Maverick” would probably need to win Best Picture to have a good shot at winning this. Like I said about war films, action blockbusters generally don’t win screenplay awards. They are generally more so thought of as technical achievements. But, if the voters give a ton of credit to the screenplay for reviving the franchise in such a successful way, maybe it could surprise.

My current prediction: “Women Talking.” Considering its competition, I feel pretty good about this one. I wouldn’t mind paying this price now. But since Women Talking isn’t nominated at the BAFTAs, you may be able to get a better line after something else wins there.

Best Film Editing

Everything Everywhere All at Once

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” has dominated the precursor awards (21 wins to only two for Top Gun: Maverick). And if we’re looking for the movie with the “most editing,” you could certainly argue that it’s this one. Over the entire history of the Oscars, the Best Picture winner also wins Best Editing the majority of the time.

However, this hasn’t been the case in recent years. In fact, the Best Picture winner has failed to win Best Editing for the last nine years in a row. It seems like voters treat the editing category now as a technical award. One that should be won by a “technical achievement” film. If true, it makes sense why there seems to be a strong correlation between the editing winner also being nominated for (and often winning) Best Sound. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” did not receive a nomination for Best Sound, possibly indicating that it’s not viewed as a “technical” film and won’t win this award.

“The Departed” was the last film to win the Oscar for Best Editing without a nomination for its sound.

Top Gun: Maverick

“Top Gun: Maverick” seems a better fit with the recent winners in this category. “Dune,” “Ford v Ferrari,” “Dunkirk,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” were all movies that won without really being in contention for any of the major above-the-line awards. It’s also the favorite to win Best Sound, which strengthens its case from a stats perspective.

It is a little concerning that the movie wasn’t able to win more precursor awards for its editing. But, that could indicate the critics don’t think about this category in the same way that the Academy does.

My current prediction: “Top Gun: Maverick.” Based on recent trends in this category, I think Top Gun: Maverick should actually be considered the favorite here and I’d take the +110.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

“All Quiet on the Western Front” is something of a default frontrunner in this category. The season leader in terms of precursor wins, “Top Gun: Maverick,” missed out on a nomination for some unknown reason. To me, “All Quiet on the Western Front” is the kind of film that you could pause at any random point see a beautifully composed image, worthy of hanging up on the wall. When I think about the movie, its cinematography comes to mind immediately. It also just won the British Society of Cinematographers Award, beating out “Elvis” and “TÁR” in the process.

One thing holds me back from calling this a slam dunk. “All Quiet on the Western Front” curiously failed to get a nomination from the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC). The Oscar winner for Best Cinematography has also gotten an ASC nomination for the last 15 years in a row.

Elvis

“Elvis” has a decidedly more digital feel to its cinematography. And while it may not seem like a traditional winner in the category, voters may appreciate its unique visual approach to the tried-and-true musical biopic. Plus, it did get that ASC nomination over “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

Elvis could also have one more thing going for it: the cinematographer herself, Mandy Walker. She is only the third woman cinematographer nominated for an Oscar. She has a chance to become the first woman to win the category. With the once-presumed winner “Top Gun: Maverick” suddenly out of the running, that could open the door for a narrative like Walker’s to take hold and push Elvis over the top.

My current prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Having nine Oscar nominations, I think there might be enough respect for the film for it to pick up at least one win outside of Best International Feature. Cinematography looks like its best chance. But I don’t feel great about laying 3-to-1 here. I’d rather take a shot on Elvis.

Best Production Design

Babylon

“Babylon” has taken home most of the precursor prizes in this category. And recreations of old Hollywood have done well in this category recently (“Mank,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”). It also won the Critics Choice Award, which has matched up with the Oscar winner in this category for the last nine years in a row.

The reason it’s not a bigger favorite here is it’s the only nominee in the category not nominated for Best Picture. Since they expanded the Best Picture lineup in 2009, only two films have won Best Production Design without a Best Picture nomination — “The Great Gatsby” and “Alice in Wonderland.”

Avatar: The Way of Water

“Avatar: The Way of Water” could pick up a win here if the Academy voters feel like the movie did enough to improve and expand on the original film (which won this category back in 2010). They added water, so that should be enough, right? The difference is that “Avatar: The Way of Water” only received four Oscar nominations, a far cry from the original’s nine. “Avatar” won Best Cinematography, but “Avatar: The Way of Water” didn’t even get nominated in that category.

On the whole, the Academy seems far less impressed with this film. Or at least, they feel like they’ve seen it before. So, I don’t think the original film’s Production Design win will translate to another here.

Elvis

“Elvis” has only picked up one precursor award compared to 10 for “Babylon” and three for “Avatar: The Way of Water.” and while the recreations of some of Elvis’ famous concerts looks impressive, I don’t know if the work is really that memorable. I mean, you’ve seen one stage, you’ve seen ’em all, right?

My current prediction: “Babylon.” Sure, I’d feel better if it had a Best Picture nomination, but I’m not too worried about this one. Given its subject matter and the fact that it’s nominated in several other categories, I think Academy voters will take the time to pop this one in, Best Picture nomination or not. I’ll take the -115.

Best Costume Design

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” sits tied with “Elvis” in precursor wins so far this season. It won the Critics Choice Award, but missed a nomination with BAFTA. However, BAFTA only gave the original “Black Panther” one nomination. And that didn’t affect its performance at the Oscars.

Are the costumes new and different enough from the first film? I think so. Worth noting: if “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” wins this, Ruth Carter will become the first Black woman to win two Oscars in any category.

Elvis

“Elvis” has impressive replicas of some of the King’s most iconic looks. And it did get the nomination over “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the BAFTAs. The question is: how impressed will Academy voters be with essentially reproductions of existing designs?

This reminds me a bit of when many people predicted “Jackie” to win Best Costume Design for the famous fashion of the former First Lady. But, “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” wound up the upset winner. In that case, the Academy went for whimsy over historical accuracy.

My current prediction: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” I went back and forth on this category when I decided to open YouTube. I wanted to see the moment where the original “Black Panther” won Best Costume Design in 2019. Watching it back, I became struck by the multiple applause breaks during Carter’s speech. You could tell it was a truly jubilant moment in that room. That convinced me that she will win this award again.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Whale

“The Whale” scored an important victory over “Elvis” at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylist Guild Awards. It’s important to remember that despite this category’s name, it usually ends up going to the best prosthetics. Completely transformational make-up often wins this category.

Elvis

“Elvis” won the Critics Choice Award in this category, even though that voting body went for Brendan Fraser over Austin Butler in Best Actor. To me, that says their love for Fraser’s performance failed to outweigh the merits of “Elvis'” make-up and hairstyling. Will the voters feel that the task of turning Austin Butler into Elvis had a higher degree of difficulty? Will they appreciate the greater of variety of work on display in “Elvis” as compared to “The Whale?”

My current prediction: “The Whale.” The primary image associated with the film is Brendan Fraser’s face under some really impressive prosthetics. Also, if I’m correct that Fraser wins Best Actor, the voters might naturally want to honor the make-up team that helped him achieve such an effective performance. In fact, we often see this category paired with a lead acting win. Most recently, Jessica Chastain’s performance for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”

Best Original Score

Babylon

“Babylon” is the only non-Best Picture nominee in this category, as in Production Design. But, it’s won 14 precursor awards including the Golden Globe. “The Fabelmans” has only managed one win. You might say this is a case where Babylon has the “most score.” It’s absolutely the biggest and most bombastic, and if you’ve seen the movie you know exactly what I’m talking about. This has the kind of score that you remember. Also, composer Justin Hurwitz won two Oscars for “La La Land,” so the Academy clearly knows him well and likes his work.

The Fabelmans

“The Fabelmans” is probably in second place here mostly due to the personal narrative of John Williams. Yes, he’s 91 years old. It would sure be nice to give him one last Oscar. But, we’re talking about a guy who already has five, and more than 50 nominations. And it’s not even like this is the Academy’s last chance to give John Williams another Oscar. He made it clear that he’s not retiring (he even scored the new Indiana Jones movie coming out later this year).

My current prediction: Babylon. After hearing it, it’s tough for me to imagine it losing. Go listen to “Voodoo Mama” and you’ll see what I mean.

Best Original Song

Naatu Naatu (RRR)

“RRR” won both the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award. That’s a strong combination in this category, without any other major precursor awards. Also, “Naatu Naatu” is just a really fun song, one that actually plays during the movie rather than the end credits.

Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” has a song by Rihanna, who just performed at the Super Bowl halftime show while pregnant. Might that give the movie a boost in this category? Probably not, but it reminds me just a little of H.E.R. winning for her song from Judas and the Black Messiah after having recently done well at the Grammys.

My current prediction: “RRR.” But given it’s a foreign-language film that isn’t nominated in any other categories, I’ll pass at -500. It seems like it’s probably happening, but if not enough people took the time to watch the three-hour epic, Rihanna or Lady Gaga could play spoiler.

Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

“Top Gun: Maverick” is the sort of movie that’s easy to check off in this category. Planes go boom, check. But more importantly, it picked up five awards so far, while none of the other nominees in this category have a single win to their names.

My current prediction: Top Gun: Maverick. The original “Avatar” didn’t win for its sound, so I really don’t think “Avatar: The Way of Water” is strong enough to challenge here.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

“Avatar: The Way of Water” has nearly swept the precursor awards in this category. I think even the film’s haters would admit that it deserves Best Visual Effects.

My current prediction: “Avatar: The Way of Water.” You know how the Grammys just came up with that new award called the Dr. Dre Award and they gave the first one to Dr. Dre? They should just change the name of this category to the “Avatar” award. Spoiler alert: Nos. 3, 4 and 5 will all win this too.

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” won this category the moment they decided to put Guillermo’s name in the title. It counted as a bit of a surprise when the movie failed to get nominated for Best Original Score or Best Original Song. That indicates that the film may be slightly weaker than we initially expected. But, let’s not overthink this.

My current prediction: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.” Yeah, I think there’s almost no chance it’s losing this. You can lay the 14-to-1 if you want.

Best Documentary Feature

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” is the critical favorite here, having picked up the most precursor wins so far. However, it did not get nominated at either PGA or BAFTA, when “Navalny” and “Fire of Love” each received nominations. My gut feeling is that this film about photographer-activist Nan Goldin may not have as much broad appeal with the Academy as what it’s up against.

Navalny

“Navalny” is an engaging thriller about charismatic Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. It could be seen as the “important” film of the group. The timely topic alone could be enough to get it the win. However, it hasn’t yet picked up any precursor wins, compared to 17 for “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” and 11 for “Fire of Love.“

Fire of Love

“Fire of Love” is a crowd-pleasing movie about husband-and-wife volcanologists who chase erupting volcanoes around the world.

My current prediction: Fire of Love. It comes down to “topical” or “feel-good.” Based on recent winners of this category, like “My Octopus Teacher,” I’m going with the feel-good choice.

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front

“All Quiet on the Western Front” is the only Best Picture nominee in the category. And Best Picture nominees don’t lose in this category.

My current prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” This is the biggest lock on the board. You have my permission to lay the 20-to-1.

Best Live-Action Short

Editor’s note: According to Jacob, we “don’t really have much to go on” and “anything can happen” in these categories.

My current prediction: “An Irish Goodbye.” “Le Pupille” is probably the favorite due to Oscar-winning director Alfonso Cuarón’s name being attached. But, I happened to catch it on Disney+ and found it a little boring, to be honest. “An Irish Goodbye” is the only nominee in English, so I think that could give it a real advantage in this category.

Best Documentary Short

My current prediction: “Stranger at the Gate.” “The Elephant Whisperers” is a nice nature documentary on Netflix. I watched it, and it was fine. “Stranger at the Gate” is about a U.S. Marine who plans to bomb a mosque, but abandons the attack after meeting the people he was going to kill. To me, that sounds like the kind of story that will get people’s attention.

Sportsbook Promos For Oscars Odds