Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Picks, Predictions: College Football Championship Betting Guide

Just feet from the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta, another team writes its name in the history book under “champion.” Fitting that, to begin a new era in college football, two of the country’s most storied and tradition-rich programs compete for this year’s title. Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) is Ohio State Buckeyes -10.5 (-105) on FanDuel spread favorites over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1). Let’s handicap this matchup from various angles, including my best bets for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds.

National Championship: Ohio State Vs. Notre Dame Odds

Browse the latest odds for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame below. Click anywhere to place a bet on the game. Before you bet, check out the best college football promos and the latest offerings from the best legal sportsbooks.

The Buckeyes will play in their fifth title game since 2002 and seek their ninth championship in program history, the first since the 2014-15 season. Notre Dame looks for title No. 12, but it’s first since 1988. A win on Monday would put Notre Dame near the top of the biggest national championship game upsets ever.

Anticipation couldn’t be higher for this one – the average get-in price to Mercedes-Benz Stadium smashed the previous record for the most expensive national championship ticket. With this being Ohio’s first chance at legally betting on the hometown Buckeyes, this game could also break records in terms of betting volume.

The 2025 National Championship Game will be broadcast on all ESPN networks on Monday, Jan. 20, at 7:30 p.m. ET (main broadcast: ESPN).

Editor’s note: Ohio State opened a -9.5 favorite over Notre Dame. The total opened at 47.5 points.

watch: ohio state vs. notre dame betting preview

Notre Dame Vs. Ohio State Injury Report

Notre Dame Key Injuries

PLAYER	POS	INJURY	STATUS
Beaux Collins	WR	Calf	Questionable
Charles Jagusah	LT	Shoulder	Questionable
Anthonie Knapp	LT	Ankle	Out
Ashton Craig	C	Knee	Out (season)
Rylie Mills	DL	Knee	Out (season)
Boubacar Traore	DL	Knee	Out (season)
Jordan Bothelo	DE	Knee	Out (season)
Benjamin Morrison	CB	Hip	Out (season)
Jaden Mickey	CB	Redshirt	Out (season)

The Fighting Irish lost Anthonie Knapp in the CFP semifinals with a high ankle sprain. However, on the depth chart for the National Championship, freshman Charles Jagusah was listed as an OR starter, indicating he might play. Jagusah was the intended starter at left tackle this season but missed the entirety with a meniscus tear in his shoulder. Sitting out an entire season is difficult to return from at a high level, but Jagusah would be a sufficient replacement on Monday.

Beaux Collins suffered a calf injury in the quarterfinals against Georgia. He leads all wide receivers in targets, receptions, and yards.

Also, note that running back Jeremiyah Love has dealt with a recurring injury that impacted his play and snaps during the Playoff. He aggravated the injury against Indiana and Georgia twice but appeared healthy enough against Penn State.

Rylie Mills is the only player on this report who lost after the regular season.

Ohio State Key Injuries

PLAYER	POS	INJURY	STATUS
Denzel Burke	CB	Upper Body	Probable
Seth McLaughlin	C	Achilles	Out (season)
Josh Simmons	LT	Knee	Out (season)

Note that QB Will Howard suffered an alien-like bump on his hand during the Cotton Bowl. Defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau had his ankle rolled up, and he played with a spat for the rest of the game. Both players will play on Monday.

Head coach Ryan Day said Corner Denzel Burke missed the second half of the Cotton Bowl with an “upper body extremity” issue. He should play on Monday but may also appear on the injury report.

Currently, All-American guard Donovan Jackson plays left tackle for Ohio State. During the CFP, Jackson allowed no sacks and just one pressure (no penalties).

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4 key Points for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds

Will Notre Dame Keep Riley Leonard Ppright?

In three CFP games, Leonard was pressured 43 times and sacked six times. Losing the season’s starting left tackle against the ferocious Ohio State pass rush compounds an issue that stalls the Notre Dame offense. Thanks to his dynamic rushing ability, Leonard still papers over many of the would-be sacks and potential pressures the line currently surrenders. According to PFF, Notre Dame’s pass protection ranks 58th in the country.

Conversely, nobody rushed the passer better than Ohio State since starting the CFP. The Buckeyes logged 52 pressures and 16 sacks through their three postseason games. That production isn’t just coming from one player, either. Tuimoloau (three sacks) and Jack Sawyer (3) lead the way, with Sawyer cementing his Ohio State legacy thanks to heroics at the end of the Cotton Bowl. But five other Buckeyes logged a sack this postseason: LB Cody Simon (2), LB Sonny Styles (1), EDGE Caden Curry (1), SAF Lathan Ransom (1), and DL Ty Hamilton (1).

To boot, 15 Ohio State defenders logged at least one pressure.

Against the deepest cast of pass rushers and defenders overall, Notre Dame’s offensive line has its work cut out.

Both Quarterbacks Must Avoid “Hero Ball”

In the Cotton Bowl, Texas attempted the NFL’s tried-and-true “Patrick Mahomes defense,” which involved two high safeties to prevent explosives. It worked, especially on freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, who was held to one catch for three yards. The drawback to playing such a shell is that there is plenty of real estate underneath for Ohio State’s other deadly pass catchers, like Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate.

Despite having eight yards on the table every dropback, Howard insisted on taking shots, sometimes putting the ball in harm’s way. After not throwing a single graded turnover-worthy throw in the first two games, Howard logged two of them, one of which was an interception.

Across the sideline, Leonard oftentimes takes matters into his own hands, especially on late downs. While his tough-nosed running ability usually gets the job done, he does unnecessarily put the ball in harm’s way, too. Leonard graded for three turnover-worthy throws in the last two CFP games, two of which resulted in interceptions. Those two interceptions resulted in 10 points for Penn State on the ensuing drives.

The QB making the most mistakes against extremely opportune pass defenses puts their team in the worst position to win. Should either (or both) play within the system’s confines – and take what the opposing defense gives them – we’re in for a dynamite game. But the QB that insists on taking more unnecessary risks (keyword: unnecessary) could get blown out.

Day Must Coach Like An Underdog

Day coaches two types of games. First, when the Buckeyes play as underdogs and his job is questioned, Day coaches one of the most aggressive schemes in college football and opens up the entire playbook for both ace coordinators. Second, when there’s a full expectation to win comfortably, he bottles up and plays conservative (and losing) football. Look no further than two consecutive games for examples: Week 14 versus Michigan (-20.5 favorites) and Round 1 of the CFP against Tennessee (-6.5 favorites, but with Day’s job on the line).

Across the field stands Marcus Freeman, a coach who affords little flexibility to make mistakes. Freeman flexed his coaching muscles in the second halves of Notre Dame’s last two CFP matchups. Down 10-3 at the half to Penn State, the Fighting Irish roared back to win, 27-24. Nursing a 23-10 lead, Freeman drew up a perfect fire drill substitution and forced Georgia to jump offside on fourth-and-one, allowing Notre Dame to milk five more minutes off the game clock.

Should Michigan Day show up in Atlanta, he will get out-coached. And if Day gets out-coached, Notre Dame joins the club of biggest championship upsets at +8.5.

Will Notre Dame Even The Playing Field?

In an age of hyper-efficient offenses leaning into the pass, Notre Dame reached the championship game like it was playing in 1988. Defense and a physical run game propelled the Irish to Atlanta, and without a strong cast of receivers and an offensive line with pass protection issues, they don’t intend to change now. Love, a sophomore, is one of the most explosive backs in college football. For proof of his health, look no further than his incredible go-ahead touchdown against Penn State; he also owns the longest touchdown run in college football this year (a 98-yard scamper against Indiana).

Ohio State’s defense has been about as good as it gets against the run this postseason. Nine of Texas’ 25 rushes went for two or fewer yards (36%). The game before, 14 of Oregon’s 20 rushes went for the same (70%). Gap scheme, zone scheme, vertical or horizontal, the Buckeyes’ defense plays downhill and features 11 freak athletes capable of bottling up the run.

Besides Leonard, Notre Dame’s run game underperformed through three CFP games. Jadarian Price offered satisfactory relief in Love’s absence but was held to just 10-for-37 against Georgia and 7-for-13 versus Penn State.

Conversely, the Buckeyes feature the best running-back tandem in the country. Quinshon Judkins runs a physical brand of football and found the end zone twice against Texas. TreVeyon Henderson offers versatility and track speed outside the backfield. One always has fresh legs, making them a nightmare to defend.

Opportunity exists on the ground against Notre Dame’s defense. But does Chip Kelly take advantage of it, no matter the cost to his receivers? There should be a clear advantage on the ground, pointing to Ohio State.

The Case For Notre Dame

Recent history isn’t on Notre Dame’s side. Since the sport moved to the College Football Playoff model, no underdog of a touchdown or more has secured a victory in the national championship.

That said, there’s an actual path for the Fighting Irish to finish within the closing number. Texas may have spilled the tape on bottling the Ohio State offense, capping them at 21 points (the other score came on defense). Should Notre Dame take the tape, play two-high, and take away explosive passes, Ohio State will be forced to play its game. Texas had an opportunity to tie the game with the ball at the one-yard line but was unable to. Behind Leonard’s added rushing ability, Notre Dame likely punches that one in.

Howard showed the propensity to try and attack the teeth of the defense against Texas, forcing the ball downfield when he didn’t have to. With two-time All-American safety Xavier Watts patrolling the skies, risks like that could turn into additional turnovers. Taking away the downfield passing game forces the Ohio State offense to play mistake-free football.

The other facet comes in the Middle Eight. Notre Dame holds a ridiculous 148-17 advantage in the halftime turn (h/t Brad Powers). Stealing possessions from Ohio State is the No. 1 way to beat Goliath.

Notre Dame can play that way. Dragging Ohio State down into its own game — a physical, low-scoring affair with little tempo — is the route for Notre Dame to not just finish inside the number, steal possessions, but potentially steal the game.

The Case For Ohio State

As 8.5-point favorites, there are many more paths for the Buckeyes to win the program’s ninth national championship. While Leonard poses a much more significant rushing threat, he poses a significantly less threatening arm. None of Ohio State’s CFP opponents successfully passed downfield, forcing their offenses to stall.

Ohio State’s biggest advantage is that they don’t have to allocate additional resources to the run or pass game to shut them down; lining up in traditional looks and allowing star players to do their thing has been more than enough.

The magic number is 28. Should Ohio State score 28 points, the Buckeyes almost certainly win this game. Against Georgia, 17 of Notre Dame’s 23 points came directly from special teams, and the other six were a byproduct of a short field forced by a strip sack. The offense isn’t built to score against elite defenses.

Despite rostering the best freshman in the nation (potentially the best receiver) in Smith, Ohio State shouldn’t feel forced to feed him the ball. Its win doesn’t rest on Smith’s shoulders. But getting Smith involved early helps seal the game early, as shown against Tennessee and Oregon.

The Buckeyes should be able to line up and run the football on the legs of both premier backs. Should Notre Dame stack the box that forces single coverages to Smith and Egbuka, Tate (who hauled in a season-high seven receptions against Texas), and the rest of the five-star cast of pass catchers?

Favorites covered the last five national championships by an average of 15 points against the closing spread, with Georgia’s 65-7 result removed as an outlier. Should the Buckeyes play their game, Ohio State will make it six straight covers.

Underrated X-Factor

While Sawyer, Tuimoloau, and Caleb Downs receive most of the attention, don’t neglect the importance of safety Lathan Ransom. In three CFP games, Ransom recorded seven run stops, a QB sack, and no touchdowns in coverage. Depending on the scheme, Downs is tasked with the most challenging assignments, but Ransom oftentimes is tasked with stopping the opposing offense’s go-to. Against Penn State, Ransom matched up against star TE Tyler Warren multiple times. Warren was held to four receptions for 47 yards and no touchdowns.

He presents a critical component to the Buckeyes run defense.

Final Thoughts: Ohio State Vs. Notre Dame Odds

To say there’s no way Notre Dame covers or wins this game is a farce, but that route comes in a very specific manner. Should the Cotton Bowl have resulted in a downfield passing onslaught and subsequent Ohio State blowout, a concern about what the Buckeyes look like in a rock fight would be a very genuine concern. But having shown the ability to absorb punches and win the game on the back of the defense when the offense can’t feast should put those to rest.

Ohio State fields the best roster NIL money can buy. It couples star transfers like Downs, Howard, and Judkins with home-grown studs like Henderson, Jackson, and Sawyer. The Buckeyes field a complete roster that’ll join the all-time discussions should they finish the job on Monday.

Rather than posting a play I don’t have, I’d like to offer some options. Think of it as a choose-your-own-adventure:

• Should you lean Ohio State -8.5, consider alternate lines instead. At Caesars Sportsbook, Ohio State -13.5 offers +139. If your state provides college player prop markets, you may find value in taking over Henderson and/or Judkins’ rushing yards (around 54.5 each).
• Should you lean Notre Dame +8.5, consider taking the first-half money line at +210. If your state offers college player prop markets, consider taking under Smith’s receiving yards (around 80.5) or over Leonard’s rushing yards (35.5).

Good luck betting on the Notre Dame vs. Ohio State odds! Enjoy the 2025 national championship.

Thanks for following along with this year’s college football coverage. I look forward to another exciting season this fall!

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