Ohio Senate Odds: Should Sherrod Brown, Democrats Be The Favorite?

One of the most important races for control of the U.S. Senate this year comes down to Ohio. Yet current Ohio Senate odds do not reflect the Buckeye State has swung 11 points to the red in eight years, turning the perennial swing state into a Republican bastion. The GOP still has not won Sherrod Brown’s Senate seat, the last statewide office held by a Democrat, which is why it is worth analyzing election odds and the campaigns as to whether Bernie Moreno will win the seat for Republicans.

Ohio Senate Odds: Party to Win in 2024

Party	PredictIt Price	Equivalent Odds
Democratic	$0.57	-132
Republican	$0.45	+122

Sherrod Brown

One of the great questions in U.S. politics is also one of the least answerable ones – how good are the Class of 2006 Democratic Senators versus how lucky are they? First up for election in the post-Katrina peak of the Iraq War anger wave year of 2006, before riding the good year of 2012 when Obama won re-election, and then facing a Blue wave in 2018. Not every member of the 2006 class survived, but the current Democratic Senate majority owes itself to red, and swing state members consistently survived despite many of their states getting meaningfully redder. Jon Tester in Montana, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio have all won 3 times in a swing or red state. But it’s unclear how much of that is because of their brilliance.

Brown, in particular, is impossible to assess properly. He won by double digits in 2006, but Ted Strickland won the Governor’s race that year by about ten points more. Corruption scandals and general anger at the Ohio GOP, plus national factors, meant that race tells us little about his unique popularity. In 2012, the only time he’s been on the ballot in a Presidential year, he won by six at the same time that Barack Obama won the state by 3. And in 2018, he outran the Democratic Gubernatorial candidate by 11 en route to a 7-point win.

That 2018 result is where a lot of the confidence in Brown rests. His 2018 result was very impressive, taken at face value. And an 11 point overperformance would be enough to say he’s at minimum in a coinflip race. But there’s a lot missing from that simple version of events.

Not So Strong?

Using Brown’s 2018 win as proof he will win again is as close to political malfeasance as you can get. As someone who has butchered my fair share of statistics in my life to make points, this crosses a line. The reason Sherrod Brown won by 7% was because he outspent his GOP opponent by $23M and had a 4:1 outside spending edge on top of it.

The 2018 Senate map featured 10 Democratic Senators in states won by Donald Trump. The GOP had to play (at least some amount of) defense in another 4 seats, meaning there was a Senate map at one point that went 14 seats deep. The Republicans had to make a decision about where best to spend their money, and they decided to take a punt on Sherrod. Given they won the Florida Senate seat that year by 0.1%, it was decidedly the correct call. But comparing 2024 and 2018 is like saying the Bengals are about to suck because they missed the playoffs with Jake Browning. It’s just not relevant.

What is (slightly) more relevant is the polling, where Brown is leading handily. Ohio Senate odds are reliant on this polling. But let’s get one thing very clear about Ohio polling in the summer – it is worthless.

Polls Dead In Ohio?

Other than 2022, the smallest polling miss in Ohio since 2014 has been 5 points. In all of 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020, at least one statewide race underestimated the GOP by 5%+. In 2020, that number was 7%. Richard Cordray, the Democrat running on the same ticket as Brown in 2018, was supposed to win before losing by 4%. This state is too Republican to elect a Democratic in a Presidential year.

Since that 2012 year, exactly one (1) Senator has won re-election without their Presidential nominee winning the state. Susan Collins did it in 2020, in a small, incredibly idiosyncratic state, where she had won her last two elections by an average of 30%. The last time Sherrod was on the ballot with a Presidential candidate and facing a credible challenger, he only outran Obama by 3%. Ohio’s probably voting for Trump by 10%.

Ohio Senate Odds Prospects

One of the big mistakes that those who believed in the entirely fanciful Senate nonsense (namely, me) in 2020 made was believing the 2016 Senate/Presidential perfect match was an aberration. The theory was that it was a one-off, not a fundamental reshaping of politics. Plainly, expecting big ticket splits in Presidential years is fanciful.

More to the point, to the extent that election predictions are about philosophy, this ain’t the hill I’m dying on. Last week I said the polls aren’t meaningful and that Democrats have a very solid chance of winning Georgia. The exact same arguments for trusting trends and fundamentals apply here. I can’t selectively apply my arguments because Sherrod’s a Democrat. As I wrote for this site two years ago about another Ohio Senate seat, it’s easy to find polls that say good things for Democrats in Ohio. It’s even sometimes easy to believe them. I’ve done it before. But I’m not going to fall for this again.

Republicans will flip the seat.

Best of luck navigating Ohio Senate odds!

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