NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds: Two Longshots To Consider

With just one week (plus Thursday Night Football) in the books, it’s not too early for some takeaways when evaluating NFL odds. Matt Brown went over some in his Week 2 picks, but I’m thinking awards here. When browsing through the top of the board for Offensive Player of the Year odds, it struck me that there is more uncertainty than usual around some of the favorites. That, in turn, may open the door for some longshot picks.

Let’s go over a couple of options I think are live at long prices in NFL betting. Click any of the odds below to make a wager at betting apps in your area.

Why I’m Looking At Longshots In Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Offensive Player of the Year is typically the province of the best RBs and WRs in the league. In recent years, it has essentially become “Best Non-QB.”

The top of the board always features the obvious names: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, and Cooper Kupp. The latter three represent the past three winners, in fact. CeeDee Lamb and Saquon Barkley are the other two top candidates this year.

However, these superstars all have major question marks.

• Barkley: extensive injury history, odds are already prohibitively short.
• Lamb: Has the Cowboys offense taken a step back? Covered here, and Week 1 wasn’t very promising.
• Hill: Just lost his QB to injury. Dolphins off to a slow start offensively.
• Kupp: Will eventually split volume with Puka Nacua again. You’re buying very high here.
• McCaffrey: Sounds likely he misses two games to start the season.
• Jefferson: His QB is Sam Darnold. The Vikings likely won’t win a ton of games.

I think the door’s open for someone further down the board. Here are two options that have me intrigued.

Possible Live Longshots In Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Bills RB James Cook

Cook took a starring turn in the Bills’ romp over the Dolphins on TNF. He scored three times in the first half, and the Bills were so dominant that he wasn’t even needed down the stretch when Ray Davis took over.

Davis and fellow backup Ty Johnson aren’t serious threats to take any burn from Cook, as shown by last week when Cook toted 19 of the team’s 24 running back carries. That’s a key point in Cook’s favor as it should allow him to rack up plenty of volume.

And provided the Bills don’t keep running away from people by 20, that volume should exist. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s game plans last year served as a hot talking about among NFL watchers. He completely revamped the offense from Ken Dorsey’s aerial assault, leaning into a more run-centric scheme. It worked, as the Bills won six of their last seven to clinch the division and host two playoff games.

After a 2-0 start, it’s hard to see Brady switching gears.

The offensive line has done good work early opening up holes for Cook. ESPN graded them the fifth-best unit in Week 1. PFF was less impressed, but it’s hard to see why since Buffalo has exceeded 100 yards in both games. Cook has been extremely efficient with 5 YPA and a 56.7% Success Rate.

Cook has also been a key component in the passing game, a crucial addition for any RB who hopes to compete for this award. He already caught a touchdown pass, and his receiving stats last year were comparable to Christian McCaffrey’s. Cook has double-digit YPR for the second straight year so far, an extremely impressive stat for a back.

He’ll be relied upon even more now that the receiving corps has been torn apart and rebuilt in the offseason.

A high-volume back on a good offense who is already out ahead of the field with 3 TDs looks like a live longshot in Offensive Player of the Year odds.

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Texans WR Nico Collins

Coming into 2024, the fantasy community seemed convinced that Collins and new arrival Stefon Diggs were Co-No. 1 targets.

I wasn’t so sure, as I think Collins’ 2023 has been severely undervalued. People treated it like he had some cute season. Collins was simply one of the best WRs in the NFL. He only played in 15 games but still put up 1,297 yards.

He also has the advantage of significant rapport with Stroud. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have demonstrated year after year what a mind meld between your QB and top pass catcher can produce. The connection becomes greater than the sum of the parts.

In Week 1, Collins showed definitively he’s still WR1. Yes, Diggs got the touchdowns, but he essentially just ran short routes and served as a safety valve. His average depth of target was an astonishing 1.3 yards. Meanwhile, Collins went for another 117, nearly triple the production of second-place Tank Dell.

If Week 1 is any indication, this Texans offense might be just as terrifying as it looked on paper. They had a solid 50% Success Rate (eighth in the NFL) and moved the ball at will, except they settled for too many field goals. Still, 29 points is nothing to sneeze at against a respectable Colts defense.

Mixon’s early eruption notwithstanding, Stroud and Collins are going to lead the charge. That will put the former in MVP talk and leave the latter contending in Offensive Player of the Year odds.

Best of luck if you choose to fire on either of these longshots in Offensive Player of the Year odds.