Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Who Can Break An NFL Record?

Written By Derek Wagner on November 17, 2022 - Last Updated on November 19, 2022
offensive player of the year odds

Offensive Player of the Year odds are one of the more difficult futures markets to bet into before the season starts. They are, however, a more manageable mid-season market to bet into once we see where single-season records or headline-worthy milestones are within reach.

Cooper Kupp held the triple crown of receiver stats last year. Derrick Henry went for 2,000 yards in 2020. Michael Thomas broke a record in 2019. Patrick Mahomes did the same in 2018. In this post, we’ll dig into everything you need to know before placing a bet on 2022 Offensive Player of the Year odds.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

The odds below pull the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state for each player.


Michael Thomas 2019 Winner

In 2019, Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas had an incredible season that resulted in him winning the Offensive Player of the Year award. Thomas finished with 19 votes, just two votes ahead of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. It is worth noting that Lamar Jackson broke a record this year, but we will discuss that later.

Thomas logged an astonishing 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns. His 149 receptions broke Marvin Harrison’s record of 143 that was set back in 2002.

Derrick Henry 2020 Winner

Derrick Henry had one of the most impressive seasons in recent memory for a running back in 2020. He was the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards. He was not able to beat Eric Dickerson’s single season record of 2,105 rushing yards, but he was able to surpass former Titans back Chris Johnson on the list.

It is worth noting that every running back to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards has won the OPOY award, with the exception of Eric Dickerson who set the record in 1984 with 2,105 yards. Like we have previously stated, you don’t need to set a record to win this award. You need to make headlines though.

With this in mind, there is no running back currently on pace for a 2,000 rushing yard season.

Cooper Kupp 2021 Winner

Although Kupp did not break Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record from 2012, he came extremely close. In fact, Kupp probably would have gotten there if not for a Matt Stafford interception. He was 17 yards away as the Rams got the ball back against the Niners in overtime. Stafford ended up throwing an interception at his own 38-yard line that ended the game. He finished the season with 1,947 receiving yards, while Calvin Johnson had 1,964 in 2012.

In addition to nearly breaking the receiving yards record, Kupp nearly broke Michael Thomas’ record for most receptions in season with 149. Kupp finished 2021 with 145 receptions. Following his miraculous offensive output, he was named the 2021 Offensive Player of the Year for leading all wideouts in receptions, yards and touchdowns.

Even though he didn’t break any records, the voters could not ignore the massive stats he accumulated.


Justin Jefferson

After his crazy performance in Buffalo, he’s shot back up OPOY odds. This market can be very reactionary from week to week. Can Jefferson break the receiving yards record? He needs 940 yards over his final eight games. That’s 117.5 per game. He’s currently averaging 117.8 per game, and he plays his home games indoors late in the season.

Justin Fields

Fields represents the last true longshot remaining. This number has seen notable movement in recent days. At one point in the last week, Fields was +50000 to win. Currently Justin Fields is to win the OPOY award. With that in mind, there are a few records Fields could break that could help him win the award. The Bears second year quarterback is having a fantastic season thanks to coaching staff changes in the offseason. After the game against the Patriots, Justin Fields told reporters, “It just brings another whole element to our offense, stealing some plays from the Ravens”. Fields finished that game with 14 rushes for 82 yards and a touchdown. He has been on a tear ever since and has a chance at breaking some records.

The first record he has a chance at breaking is Cam Newton’s rushing touchdown record. In his rookie season, the former Panthers quarterback crossed the goal line an astonishing 14 times. Fields has a chance to match that number or possibly surpass it this year. As it currently stands, Fields has six rushing touchdowns on the season. Although the season is halfway over, his increased usage in the ground game could certainly get him to 14.

In addition to the touchdown record for quarterbacks, Fields has a chance to break the rushing yards record for quarterbacks as well. In 2019, Lamar Jackson passed Michael Vick for most rushing yards in a single season with 1,206. Vick recorded 1,039 rushing yards in 2006. As of today, Fields is sitting at 749 rushing yards. In order to break the record, Fields would need to average just over 65 rushing yards for the remaining seven games. Not an unattainable number considering he is averaging 116 over his last four games.

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is having an amazing season for the Miami Dolphins so far. Head coach Mike McDaniels has done a fantastic job of getting his veteran receiver the ball in the open field. Offensive Player of the Year odds feature Tyreek Hills as one of the favorites, at . This is in large part because Hill is on pace to possibly break the single season receiving yards record.

Calvin Johnson set the record for most receiving yards in 2012 with 1,964 yards. Hill sits at 1,148 receiving yards with seven games remaining. This would mean that Hill would need to average 116 receiving yards over the next seven games to hit this mark. That is not an unrealistic number for him to reach as he is averaging 114.8 through 10 games so far.

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is to win the OPOY award. The Chiefs quarterback is currently on pace to break Peyton Manning’s single season passing yards record of 5,477 from 2013. Manning won the MVP award and the Offensive Player of the Year award that year.

Before Sunday night’s game against the Chargers, Mahomes currently has 2,936 passing yards with eight games remaining. At his current pace, Mahomes is projected to finish the season with 5,546 passing yards. That would be good enough to break Manning’s with nearly 100 yards to spare.

Record-setting QB seasons can and have emerged as the winner in both NFL MVP odds and OPOY.


The offensive player of the year market is a difficult one to bet from year to year. It is particularly difficult to bet into before the season starts due to it being largely based on players having spectacular seasons that result in records being broken. Perhaps the best option for bettors interested in this market is to build a portfolio on all four of the above players, since they are likely candidates to break records, or at least come close to breaking records. Best of luck betting Offensive Player of the Year odds!

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