On Feb. 7, 2021, the world will tune in for Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, and the betting world will be honed in on the likely candidates for Super Bowl MVP.
Voted on by a panel of 16 sportswriters, the MVP award has been given to the player who has the biggest impact on the outcome of the game over the last 53 years. Since 2001, electronic fan voting has accounted for 20 percent of the vote with the media panel accounting for 80 percent of the vote.
Predicting the winner during the two weeks leading up to the big game is one thing, but during the NFL playoffs, those bold enough to predict which teams are most likely to make it to the SB and which players are most likely to win MVP from that team can profit handsomely.
In order to more accurately handicap the field and predict which players have a shot at some hardware this February, TheLines takes a look at the live betting odds along with the history of the Super Bowl MVP award.
Super Bowl MVP odds (January 24, 2021)
With just the Chiefs, Bills, Packers and Buccaneers left vying for the Lombardi Trophy, we take a look at the current odds for Super Bowl 55 MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet.
Here are the current Super Bowl MVP odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes (+300): There’s naturally a major elephant in the room as it relates to Mahomes and his chances of even playing in the game that would give him a chance to earn this award — the concussion he suffered during the third quarter of Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round game versus the Browns. Naturally, if Mahomes does clear the league’s five-step concussion protocol, the Chiefs would be solid favorites to topple the Bills in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game and get to Super Bowl LV, where Mahomes would be gunning for a second straight MVP award. However, unlike last year’s game, when the 2017 first-round pick was clearly on another level from opposite number Jimmy Garoppolo, Mahomes would be matched against either Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady if he makes it to this year’s title game. That in and of itself makes him a bit of a longer shot, but given his edge in overall explosiveness on either of the two legends and his offense’s clear pass-heavy leanings, Mahomes is rightfully slightly favored to successfully defend the award he garnered in the SB LIV win over the 49ers.
Aaron Rodgers (+325): Rodgers plays in a much more balanced offense than Mahomes, which is borne out by the fact Green Bay has run at the league’s seventh-highest rate (45.1 percent) this past regular season and postseason. However, the future Hall of Famer finished the season with a jaw-dropping 48:5 TD:INT and completed a career-high 70.7 percent of his passes and finished the regular season with five 300-yard efforts. Rodgers already has one SB VMP award in the trophy case (Super Bowl XLV), and given his ability to deliver prolific, mistake-free performances, he’s indisputably among the front runners if he does make it to the big game.
Josh Allen (+475): There’s no shortage of regular season and current postseason metrics that corroborate how far Allen has come in his first three seasons, and one can arguably add this slotting on the SB MVP leaderboards – one that sees the Bills phenom comfortably ahead of Tom Brady – as yet another piece of evidence. While Mahomes and Rodgers undeniably have plenty of mobility, there’s no bigger dual threat among the four quarterbacks that could potentially play in SB LV than Allen, who complemented his career-high 4,544 passing yards with 421 on the ground, as well as eight rushing touchdowns. Granted, Allen is also the most turnover-prone and inexperienced of the group as well, but with eight 300-yard games and 62 completions of more than 20 yards this past season, his ability to rack up MVP-worthy numbers is certainly there.
Tom Brady (+625): The fact Brady is currently fourth in SB MVP odds among the quartet of eligible signal-callers underscores the strength of the position in this year’s final four. He may no longer possess the same wow factor that Mahomes, Rodgers and Allen bring to the table, but Brady dispelled any notions about his decline by throwing for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns this past season. Unlike his trio of position mates on the leaderboard, there’s no real rushing upside with Brady, although he’s certainly capable of tacking on the occasional TD via QB sneak. And finally, there’s no denying two huge intangibles in his favor – no other player among the four potential participants boasts Brady’s Super Bowl experience, and as a four-time SB MVP winner, there’s no question he knows how to meet the moment when playing for the Lombardi Trophy. However, it’s also worth noting Brady’s Buccaneers have quite the challenge in front of them to even get him into position to have a shot, considering they’ll have to get through Rodgers at frigid Lambeau Field to get there.
Davante Adams (+1500): A total of seven wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP, with four of those coming in the last 16 editions of the game. Adams is rightfully the favorite at his position to potentially become the eighth, given both his elite chemistry with Rodgers, the quarterback’s elite caliber of play, and Adams’ own 115-1,374-18 line across 14 games in 2020. Adams averaged 10.6 targets per game during the regular season and saw a whopping 28 red-zone looks, making him an excellent candidate to rack up the yardage and multiple touchdowns that would be required to garner MVP honors.
Tyreek Hill (+1600): “Cheetah” can’t match Adams on sheer volume and doesn’t have the frame to be a consistent force in close quarters near the end zone, but there’s no denying he’s basically got everyone else beat on explosiveness whenever he takes the field. Hill’s success is naturally highly tied into Mahomes’ health, but if the Chiefs do get to the Super Bowl, it’s almost certainly because Mahomes is back to his usual self. Hill (15 touchdowns) nearly matched Adams in trips to the end zone this past season despite 28 fewer catches, and with his ability to also potentially add a score or two on the ground, he offers intriguing value at his current figure.
Travis Kelce (+1800): The list of tight ends that have won Super Bowl MVP is exactly zero, so Kelce would be breaking a positional glass ceiling here should he garner the award. The veteran put together a record-setting regular season that saw him establish new career highs in receptions (105), receiving yards (1,416) and receiving touchdowns (11). That tally made him the first player at his position in NFL history with multiple 100-catch seasons and established him as the all-time single-season tight end yardage leader as well, so the type of performance necessary to make this bet a winner is certainly within his range of outcomes.
Stefon Diggs (+2000): With Adams and Hill the other elite names at his position within this field, Diggs is almost a forgotten man despite posting a 127-1,535-8 line across 16 games. Although he certainly doesn’t lack for speed, Diggs has taken on a more consistently short-area role with Buffalo, seeing his YPC tumble from the career-high 17.9 he posted during his final Vikings season in 2019 to 12.1 this season. Therefore, he would likely need some serious volume – which isn’t out of the question, considering his 10.4 targets per game in 2020 – to get to the type of numbers that would make him a serious consideration. The other stumbling block for the Pro Bowler is that putting up a big line likely equates to Allen also lighting up the stat sheet, a development that would tilt MVP odds in his QB’s favor.
Aaron Jones (+3000): Jones is a fine player that rushed for a career-high 1,104 yards at 5.5 yards per carry over 14 games this season and added an impressive 47-355-2 line through the air. He’s a legitimate dual threat at running back, yet the position doesn’t claim an MVP winner among its ranks in the last 22 Super Bowls. Then, while the Pack did run the ball at an elevated clip as mentioned in Rodgers’ entry, Jones averaged just 14.4 carries per game in 2020, making him highly reliable on multiple big plays to really put up the numbers necessary for a bet on him to cash.
Tyrann Mathieu (+4000): Malcolm Smith and Von Miller have won a Super Bowl MVP within the last seven years, making the odds of a defensive player snagging the award a more likely scenario than a running back accomplishing the feat. Mathieu recorded a career-high six picks this past season, but he didn’t record a sack, nor force or recover a fumble. He’d be facing either Rodgers or Brady as well, significantly lessening his chances of ringing up the multiple interceptions likely required for serious consideration.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+5000): CEH has to get cleared from his current ankle and hip issues first and foremost, as he was forced to miss Sunday’s divisional-round win over the Browns. Assuming the Chiefs qualify for the SB and he’s at full strength by that point, he’d have the tall task of outshining explosive teammates like Mahomes, Hill and Kelce to even have a shot.
Devin White (+5000): White will potentially carry better odds than Mathieu should the Chiefs and Buccaneers come out of their respective conferences, considering he’s a more well-rounded and disruptive defender. The second-year linebacker offered a tangible reminder of such in Sunday’s divisional-round win over the Saints with 11 tackles and a back-breaking pick of Drew Brees in the fourth quarter. Coordinator Todd Bowles’ aggressive scheme utilized White as a pass rusher with great effectiveness this season to the tune of 9.0 sacks, which could lead to the Pro Bowler producing a turnover or two with a jarring hit if it’s deployed similarly.
Best Super Bowl MVP betting sites
Super Bowl MVP history
The Super Bowl MVP debuted in the first SB, which featured the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs in January of 1967. The Packers cruised to a 35-10 victory and QB Bart Starr won the MVP with 250 yards, two TDs and a pick. The next year, Green Bay won another SB title with Starr again winning MVP thanks to a modest line of 202 yards and a TD.
That would set the precedent for the award, which as gone to QBs 29 of 53 years since its inception. The MVP has gone to seven running backs and seven wide receivers, and a defensive player has won 10 times.
Yet unlike the NFL regular season MVP award — which has gone to QBs 32 times and RBs 20 times, with one defensive player (Harlon Hill, 1955) and one WR (Jerry Rice, 1987) winning the award — sometimes the Super Bowl MVP can come out of nowhere.
In the past 20 years, Tampa Bay safety Dexter Jackson and Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith stand out as the most unlikely SB MVPs, while LBs Von Miller and Ray Lewis have also won on the strength of great defensive performances. Green Bay’s Desmond Howard became the only kick returner to win SB MVP in 1997 after totaling 244 return yards and a TD.
Return TDs have become increasingly rare in today’s NFL and defensive battles are also few and far between due to rule changes. Even in a 13-3 slugfest in Super Bowl 53, WR Julian Edelman was named MVP with 10 receptions for 141 yards. Quarterbacks had won seven of the previous nine awards.
In Super Bowl V, Cowboys LB Chuck Howley was named MVP despite Dallas losing, 16-13, to the Colts. This marks the only time a player from the losing team has been named MVP, although Tom Brady came relatively close in 2018 when he threw for 505 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-33 loss to the Eagles.
Brady holds the record with four total Super Bowl MVPs, followed by Joe Montana (3), Terry Bradshaw (2), Eli Manning (2), and Bart Starr (2). The Cowboys have produced the most SB MVPs with 7, followed by the Steelers (6) and Patriots (6).
Super Bowl MVPs
|2020||Patrick Mahomes (QB)||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2019||Julian Edelman (WR)||New England Patriots|
|2018||Nick Foles (QB)||Philadelphia Eagles|
|2017||Tom Brady (QB)||New England Patriots|
|2016||Von Miller (LB)||Denver Broncos|
|2015||Tom Brady (QB)||New England Patriots|
|2014||Malcolm Smith (LB)||Seattle Seahawks|
|2013||Joe Flacco (QB)||Baltimore Ravens|
|2012||Eli Manning (QB)||New York Giants|
|2011||Aaron Rodgers (QB)||Green Bay Packers|
|2010||Drew Brees (QB)||New Orleans Saints|
|2009||Santonio Holmes (WR)||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|2008||Eli Manning (QB)||New York Giants|
|2007||Peyton Manning (QB)||Indianapolis Colts|
|2006||Hines Ward (WR)||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|2005||Deion Branch (WR)||New England Patriots|
|2004||Tom Brady (QB)||New England Patriots|
|2003||Dexter Jackson (S)||Tampa Bay Bucs|
|2002||Tom Brady (QB)||New England Patriots|
|2001||Ray Lewis (LB)||Baltimore Ravens|
|2000||Kurt Warner (QB)||St. Louis Rams|
|1999||John Elway (QB)||Denver Broncos|
|1998||Terrell Davis (RB)||Denver Broncos|
|1997||Desmond Howard (WR/KR)||Green Bay Packers|
|1996||Larry Brown (CB)||Dallas Cowboys|
|1995||Steve Young (QB)||San Francisco 49ers|
|1994||Emmitt Smith (RB)||Dallas Cowboys|
|1993||Troy Aikman (QB)||Dallas Cowboys|
|1992||Mark Rypien (QB)||Washington Redskins|
|1991||Ottis Anderson (RB)||New York Giants|
|1990||Joe Montana (QB)||San Francisco 49ers|
|1989||Jerry Rice (WR)||San Francisco 49ers|
|1988||Doug Williams (QB)||Washington Redskins|
|1987||Phil Simms (QB)||New York Giants|
|1986||Richard Dent (DE)||Chicago Bears|
|1985||Joe Montana (QB)||San Francisco 49ers|
|1984||Marcus Allen (RB)||Los Angeles Raiders|
|1983||John Riggins (RB)||Washington Redskins|
|1982||Joe Montana (QB)||San Francisco 49ers|
|1981||Jim Plunkett (QB)||Oakland Raiders|
|1980||Terry Bradshaw (QB)||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|1979||Terry Bradshaw (QB)||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|1978||H, Martin (DE), R. White (DT)||Dallas Cowboys|
|1977||Fred Biletnikoff (WR)||Oakland Raiders|
|1976||Lynn Swann (WR)||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|1975||Franco Harris (RB)||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|1974||Larry Csonka (RB)||Miami Dolphins|
|1973||Jake Scott (S)||Miami Dolphins|
|1972||Roger Staubach (QB)||Dallas Cowboys|
|1971||Chuck Howley (LB)||Dallas Cowboys|
|1970||Len Dawson (QB)||Kansas City Chiefs|
|1969||Joe Namath (QB)||New York Jets|
|1968||Bart Starr (QB)||Green Bay Packers|
|1967||Bart Starr (QB)||Green Bay Packers|