Super Bowl MVP Odds

Editor’s Note: Tom Brady was named Super Bowl LV MVP. He had +190 odds to win it at DraftKings Sportsbook.

On Feb. 7, 2021, the world will tune in for Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, and the betting world will be honed in on the likely candidates for Super Bowl MVP.

Voted on by a panel of 16 sportswriters, the MVP award has been given to the player who has the biggest impact on the outcome of the game over the last 53 years. Since 2001, electronic fan voting has accounted for 20 percent of the vote with the media panel accounting for 80 percent of the vote.

Predicting the winner during the two weeks leading up to the big game is one thing, but during the NFL playoffs, those bold enough to predict which teams are most likely to make it to the SB and which players are most likely to win MVP from that team can profit handsomely.

In order to more accurately handicap the field and predict which players have a shot at some hardware this February, TheLines takes a look at the live betting odds along with the history of the Super Bowl MVP award.

Super Bowl MVP odds

With the Chiefs and Buccaneers vying for the Lombardi Trophy, we take a look at the current odds for Super Bowl 55 MVP at the top sportsbooks in the US.

View odds for more players at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM.

Favorites, longshots and picks

Super Bowl MVP favorites

Patrick Mahomes: The reigning Super Bowl MVP returns to the big game on the heels of a gutty performance in the AFC title game. Mahomes will have two weeks to rest his ailing foot and prepare for a Bucs defense that could be down starting safety Jordan Whitehead (shoulder). Tampa owns the top run defense in football and has forced the highest pass-play percentage (64.8%) while allowing the eighth-highest completion rate (67.8%) this season. Andy Reid certainly isn’t afraid to put the game on Mahomes’ shoulders and he has creative alternatives to the running game that produce huge amounts of YAC without asking Mahomes to drive the ball downfield.

Tom Brady: It’s truly astounding to note that Brady has played in nearly 20% of all Super Bowls. Of course, he’s won 6 and earned 4 Super Bowl MVPs during his tenure with the Patriots and he’s arguably even more important to this Bucs squad considering they rank 28th in rush-play percentage (37.4%) on the season. Brady has struggled against the Chiefs defense in years past with a 5:3 TD:INT ratio and 58% completion rate while taking 9 sacks over his last 4 meetings with KC. He threw for 346 yards and a TD with 2 INT in a narrow loss to Mahomes in the 2019 AFC Championship. The way Tampa is spreading the ball around, it would be shocking if Brady wasn’t named MVP if his Bucs emerge victorious.

Super Bowl MVP middle tier

Tyreek Hill: The “Cheetah” is a walking gamebreaker with the ability to produce multiple TDs and hundreds of yards in a single quarter. In fact, he did just that with 203 yards and 2 TDs against Carlton Davis and the Bucs in a Week 12 matchup. Tampa DC Todd Bowles will have learned from his mistakes and should give Davis more help this time around, but the Bucs are banged up at safety. Hill drew the third-most Air Yards (1,746) with the second-most TDs (17) among WRs this season. He’s a matchup problem for any defense and is a particularly tough draw for Tampa’s sizable DBs.

Travis Kelce: Kelce set new career highs this season in receptions (105), receiving yards (1,416) and receiving touchdowns (11) and became the first TE in NFL history with multiple 100-catch seasons in the process. That yardage total ranked third among all receivers and was the most ever recorded at his position, so why not back Kelce to keep making history by becoming the first TE to win Super Bowl MVP? He commands a 25% target share and a 28.6% red zone target share with Andy Reid constantly scheming ways to get him the ball in scoring position.

Leonard Fournette: The Chiefs ranked 31st in DVOA rush defense and coughed up 121.5 rushing YPG this season. Kansas City’s defense also allowed the highest percentage of red zone possessions to result in TDs (77.5%) and Fournette has become the Bucs primary option near the goal line. He pulled off an incredible 20-yard TD run against the Packers last week and has scored in all 3 playoff games for the Bucs. Ronald Jones (quad) has been relatively ineffective this postseason. Fournette was the Bucs preferred back in obvious passing situations this season and he could play the role of James White (in Super Bowl LI) if Brady is forced to throw throughout the second half in an attempt to catch the high-scoring Chiefs.

Super Bowl MVP longshots

Chris Godwin: Godwin has become Brady’s favorite target in recent weeks with 8.8 targets per game over his last 5 games including the playoffs. The Chiefs cornerbacks are tough to beat on the perimeter, so Mike Evans could struggle to make an impact down the sidelines, and Brady might be wary of those matchups after two passes intended for Evans were picked by Jaire Alexander in the NFC Championship. Facing Mahomes will ensure that Brady has to put up points and Godwin could produce big numbers in a comeback effort.

Mike Evans: At 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Evans is a beast in the red zone and a receiver Brady will continue to lean on despite their miscues in the NFC title game. While he only has 4 receptions in a couple of tough matchups against the Saints and Packers, 2 of those catches were TDs. He has another tough draw in the Super Bowl against Kansas City’s stingy secondary, but Evans is always a threat for multiple scores.

Tyrann Mathieu: Malcolm Smith and Von Miller have won a Super Bowl MVP within the last seven years, making the odds of a defensive player snagging the award a more likely scenario than a running back accomplishing the feat. Mathieu recorded a career-high six picks this past season and nearly picked off Baker Mayfield twice in the Divisional Round. The Bucs have an aggressive vertical passing attack and Mathieu is one of the best safeties in the game in terms of reading those throws and coming up with huge plays.

Jason Pierre-Paul: Both JPP and Shaq Barrett were terrific at Green Bay, combining for 5 sacks, 4 QB hits, and 4 tackles for loss to frustrate Aaron Rodgers and company. The Chiefs offensive line ranked fourth in adjusted sack rate (4.5%) this season, but they’ll be without elite LT Eric Fisher (Achilles) on Feb. 7. When the Giants stunned the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2012, JPP didn’t record a sack, but his presence helped create consistent pressure on Brady to disrupt that high-powered offense. Perhaps JPP and Barrett can disrupt the Chiefs offense in similar fashion.

Devin White: White is the heart and soul of a Bucs defense that finished fifth in total DVOA defense this season. The second-year linebacker tallied 11 tackles and a back-breaking pick of Drew Brees in the Divisional Round and combined for 15 tackles with a fumble recovery in the NFC Championship. A linebacker will have to get in on one or more turnovers to be given serious MVP consideration in the Super Bowl, and Mahomes rarely makes those kinds of mistakes.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: The rookie returned from an ankle injury to play in the AFC Championship, but split work relatively evenly with Darrel Williams. Le’Veon Bell (knee) could be active by Feb. 7 after sitting during a win over the Bills. The Chiefs backfield is crowded and they’re not a team that is going to rely on the run, especially against an elite front seven.

Best Super Bowl MVP betting sites

Super Bowl MVP history

The Super Bowl MVP debuted in the first SB, which featured the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs in January of 1967. The Packers cruised to a 35-10 victory and QB Bart Starr won the MVP with 250 yards, two TDs and a pick. The next year, Green Bay won another SB title with Starr again winning MVP thanks to a modest line of 202 yards and a TD.

That would set the precedent for the award, which as gone to QBs 29 of 53 years since its inception. The MVP has gone to seven running backs and seven wide receivers, and a defensive player has won 10 times.

Yet unlike the NFL regular season MVP award — which has gone to QBs 32 times and RBs 20 times, with one defensive player (Harlon Hill, 1955) and one WR (Jerry Rice, 1987) winning the award — sometimes the Super Bowl MVP can come out of nowhere.

In the past 20 years, Tampa Bay safety Dexter Jackson and Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith stand out as the most unlikely SB MVPs, while LBs Von Miller and Ray Lewis have also won on the strength of great defensive performances. Green Bay’s Desmond Howard became the only kick returner to win SB MVP in 1997 after totaling 244 return yards and a TD.

Return TDs have become increasingly rare in today’s NFL and defensive battles are also few and far between due to rule changes. Even in a 13-3 slugfest in Super Bowl 53, WR Julian Edelman was named MVP with 10 receptions for 141 yards. Quarterbacks had won seven of the previous nine awards.

In Super Bowl V, Cowboys LB Chuck Howley was named MVP despite Dallas losing, 16-13, to the Colts. This marks the only time a player from the losing team has been named MVP, although Tom Brady came relatively close in 2018 when he threw for 505 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-33 loss to the Eagles.

Brady holds the record with four total Super Bowl MVPs, followed by Joe Montana (3), Terry Bradshaw (2), Eli Manning (2), and Bart Starr (2). The Cowboys have produced the most SB MVPs with 7, followed by the Steelers (6) and Patriots (6).

Super Bowl MVPs

Year	MVP	Team
2020	Patrick Mahomes (QB)	Kansas City Chiefs
2019	Julian Edelman (WR)	New England Patriots
2018	Nick Foles (QB)	Philadelphia Eagles
2017	Tom Brady (QB)	New England Patriots
2016	Von Miller (LB)	Denver Broncos
2015	Tom Brady (QB)	New England Patriots
2014	Malcolm Smith (LB)	Seattle Seahawks
2013	Joe Flacco (QB)	Baltimore Ravens
2012	Eli Manning (QB)	New York Giants
2011	Aaron Rodgers (QB)	Green Bay Packers
2010	Drew Brees (QB)	New Orleans Saints
2009	Santonio Holmes (WR)	Pittsburgh Steelers
2008	Eli Manning (QB)	New York Giants
2007	Peyton Manning (QB)	Indianapolis Colts
2006	Hines Ward (WR)	Pittsburgh Steelers
2005	Deion Branch (WR)	New England Patriots
2004	Tom Brady (QB)	New England Patriots
2003	Dexter Jackson (S)	Tampa Bay Bucs
2002	Tom Brady (QB)	New England Patriots
2001	Ray Lewis (LB)	Baltimore Ravens
2000	Kurt Warner (QB)	St. Louis Rams
1999	John Elway (QB)	Denver Broncos
1998	Terrell Davis (RB)	Denver Broncos
1997	Desmond Howard (WR/KR)	Green Bay Packers
1996	Larry Brown (CB)	Dallas Cowboys
1995	Steve Young (QB)	San Francisco 49ers
1994	Emmitt Smith (RB)	Dallas Cowboys
1993	Troy Aikman (QB)	Dallas Cowboys
1992	Mark Rypien (QB)	Washington Redskins
1991	Ottis Anderson (RB)	New York Giants
1990	Joe Montana (QB)	San Francisco 49ers
1989	Jerry Rice (WR)	San Francisco 49ers
1988	Doug Williams (QB)	Washington Redskins
1987	Phil Simms (QB)	New York Giants
1986	Richard Dent (DE)	Chicago Bears
1985	Joe Montana (QB)	San Francisco 49ers
1984	Marcus Allen (RB)	Los Angeles Raiders
1983	John Riggins (RB)	Washington Redskins
1982	Joe Montana (QB)	San Francisco 49ers
1981	Jim Plunkett (QB)	Oakland Raiders
1980	Terry Bradshaw (QB)	Pittsburgh Steelers
1979	Terry Bradshaw (QB)	Pittsburgh Steelers
1978	H, Martin (DE), R. White (DT)	Dallas Cowboys
1977	Fred Biletnikoff (WR)	Oakland Raiders
1976	Lynn Swann (WR)	Pittsburgh Steelers
1975	Franco Harris (RB)	Pittsburgh Steelers
1974	Larry Csonka (RB)	Miami Dolphins
1973	Jake Scott (S)	Miami Dolphins
1972	Roger Staubach (QB)	Dallas Cowboys
1971	Chuck Howley (LB)	Dallas Cowboys
1970	Len Dawson (QB)	Kansas City Chiefs
1969	Joe Namath (QB)	New York Jets
1968	Bart Starr (QB)	Green Bay Packers
1967	Bart Starr (QB)	Green Bay Packers