PGA Championship Odds

Betting Guide, Predictions, And How To Bet

PGA Championship odds Phil Mickelson Brooks Koepka

Phil Mickelson stunned the sports world with a 2021 PGA Championship victory at 50-years-old. Lefty became the oldest golfer to win a PGA major with the triumph. His odds entering the tournament at Kiawah Island were around +20000 at most sportsbooks.

Brooks Koepka was the favorite on the morning of the final day, with odds of +160 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Mickelson, who had been atop the leaderboard on Sunday morning, was +300 at DK.

The 2022 PGA Championship will be held at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma. It will be the fifth time Southern Hills has hosted the event, as it also hosted in 1970, 1982, 1994 and 2007.

PGA Championship betting odds

PGA Championship odds for the 2022 event have already been posted at DraftKings Sportsbook. Rory McIlroy was the opening favorite a year in advance as he was +1100 at DK on May 24, 2021.

Outright Winner

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Rory McIlroy
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+1100
Jon Rahm
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+1200
Justin Thomas
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+1200
Dustin Johnson
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+1400
Bryson DeChambeau
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+1600
Jordan Spieth
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+1600
Brooks Koepka
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+1600
Viktor Hovland
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+2200
Xander Schauffele
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+2200
Collin Morikawa
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+2500
Patrick Cantlay
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+2800
Hideki Matsuyama
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+3000
Daniel Berger
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+3000
Webb Simpson
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+3300
Will Zalatoris
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+3300
Patrick Reed
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+3300
Joaquin Niemann
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+4000
Scottie Scheffler
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+4000
Tony Finau
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+4000
Cameron Smith
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+5000

How the odds are changing

Here are how the odds changed throughout the 2021 tournament.

Golfer May 6May 16May 19May 20 (8 p.m. ET)May 22 (9:45 a.m. ET)May 23 (11 a.m. ET)
Dustin Johnson +1100+1200+1800+10000CutCut
Jon Rahm+1100+1200+1200+1600+9000OTB
Justin Thomas+1200+1200+1200+8000CutCut
Bryson DeChambeau+1400+1400+1200+2000+1400+1800
Jordan Spieth+1400+1400+1400+2200+20000+6600
Xander Schauffele+1600+1600+1600+3300CutCut
Rory McIlroy+1600+1000+1000+5000+6600OTB
Brooks Koepka+2000+2000+4500+900+400+150
Collin Morikawa+2200+2200+2200+1400+5000OTB
Hideki Matsuyama+2500+2500+3300+7500+750+30000
Patrick Cantlay+2800+3300+4500+7000+15000+15000
Daniel Berger+3300+3300+2800+100000+40000OTB
Patrick Reed+3300+3300+3300+10000OTBOTB
Webb Simpson+3300+3300+3300+20000OTBOTB
Viktor Hovland+3300+2800+1600+800+2800OTB
Tyrrell Hatton+3300+3300+4500+2800+12500OTB
Tony Finau+3500+3500+3500+12500+15000+15000
Tommy Fleetwood+3500+4000+6000+50000CutCut
Cameron Smith+4000+4000+3300+4000+7000OTB
Justin Rose+4000+4000+9000+8000+50000+30000
Will Zalatoris+4000+4000+4000+2800+8000+40000
Scottie Scheffler+4500+4500+4500+5000+17500+40000

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Off-the-Tee
  • Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Sand Save Percentage

Some players ranking well both off-the-tee and around-the-green include Justin Thomas (who won The Players Championship on Dye’s TPC Sawgrass), Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith and Webb Simpson. Focusing more heavily on the short game and sand save percentage can bring lesser-known long shots into play such as Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Dylan Frittelli. Kevin Na is first on Tour this season in SG: Around-the-Green; he won the Sony Open in Hawaii in early January.

Bogey Avoidance is key given the trouble that can arise amid windy conditions. Simpson, Cantlay and Smith all rank in the top 12.

Where to bet on the 2022 PGA Championship odds

How to bet the 2022 PGA Championship and other odds

Futures odds have been up for the 2021 PGA Championship on most major sportsbooks since the conclusion of the 2020 tournament. Those odds have been continuously updated to reflect the results of other tournaments, players being added to the field, and the performance of those in the field. The postponement of the event also had a major influence on the odds to reflect its new position on the schedule and new dates later in the summer.

Odds can range from McIlroy’s +1000 as the tournament favorite to a long shot of +100000. A $10 futures bet on McIlroy to win would return a profit of $100.

Closer to the event, the available betting options will expand greatly. Bettors will be able to wager on Top-5, Top-10, or Top-20 finishes at lower odds but with a greater chance of cashing multiple tickets. Outright favorites with already low odds can become too chalky on these bets, especially for a Top-20 result. There’s little sense in backing someone like McIlroy at -300 or -500 to finish inside the top 20, as a $10 bet fetches a profit of just $2.50 at -400.

Once tee times are released, First Round Leader (FRL) bets also become available. These can offer greater odds than a tournament favorite would have for the outright win. Odds to lead after the second and third rounds will be posted later.

Prop bets group pools of golfers by world ranking, nationality, or other shared traits. These odds depend on how competitive the specified pool is, and how heavily they’re skewed by an outright favorite.

Head-to-head or three-ball lines pit golfers against each other either for the tournament as a whole or round-by-round. These odds are typically the lowest and least profitable golf lines. They can range from -200 to +200 but are generally equal on both sides.

Straight Forecast bets are a good way to get action on heavy favorites in a tournament with a top-heavy field, but are less applicable for the PGA Championship and the other majors. It requires bettors to correctly predict both the first- and second-place finishers and doing so correctly can boost the odds as a parlay.

Each-Way betting hedges against your pick falling short of a win by finishing second, third or anywhere else within a specified range. It’s composed of two bets with one being for the win and the other for the placing.

PGA Championship betting strategy

The three key areas on which to focus when betting the PGA Championship or any PGA Tour tournament are Current Form, Course History, and Key Stats. There’s little course history for Kiawah Island. It last hosted the 2012 PGA Championship, won by McIlroy.

As with any other sport, golfers can perform better or worse than usual within a select sample for any number of reasons. The difficulty lies in being able to tell when these streaks or slumps will begin or end. Experience on and familiarity with a course can also prove advantageous, while past struggles may contribute to a lack of confidence. Certain stats can be tied to success at a course over time.

There’s no exact science for how to weigh these three measures against each other, but all must be considered at each event. Certain shot shapes and player preference for putting on different types of grass are also factors to consider. What are the predominant hazard areas? Does the course favor longer or shorter hitters? What’s the most common length of an approach shot into the green?

Monitoring futures odds over the course of a year is an essential strategy to help get the best value. Take note of the opening odds for favorites and be ready to place a wager if they rise at any point due to a string of poor finishes or injury. Also be cautious of a long shot whose odds are dropping too low. A run of top 10s or a victory or two can take any value out of a bet on someone who remains unlikely to win a major tournament.

Relatedly, public betting action can have a strong effect on the betting odds for any golfer. The more bets placed on a golfer, the lower the books will set their odds to hedge against the potential payouts.

Be sure to hedge against the incredibly difficult task of routinely predicting outright winners. While hitting a winner only once in a while can still be profitable due to high odds of long shots, placing only these bets is sure to lose money more weeks than not. Pair your outright picks with a broader series of Top-5 or Top-10 finishes, head-to-head matchup bets, or props. These are where the consistent gains are made to ensure you can keep coming back week over week.

Biggest betting long shots in PGA Championship history

(Odds courtesy SportsOddsHistory.com)

Phil Mickelson (2021) +20000

Lefty turned back the clock in May of 2021 with a sensational performance at Kiawah Island. He became the oldest golfer to win a major, as his victory came at 50-years-old. Mickelson finished 6-under, holding off Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka.

Jimmy Walker (2016) +12500

Walker picked up his 10th career win at the 2016 PGA Championship but hasn’t won since. He ranked 48th in the world at the time.

Keegan Bradley (2011) +15000

Bradley took down the 2011 PGA Championship as a PGA Tour rookie at just 25 years old. He ranked 108th in the world after already winning the HP Byron Nelson Championship earlier in the year.

YE Yang (2009) +12500

Ranking 110th in the world, Yang overcame a two-shot deficit to knock off Tiger in his Sunday red. It wasn’t only a breakthrough for Yang, but it also finally showed some cracks in Woods’ long-uncrackable armor.

Shaun Micheel (2003)

Not listed, was part of FIELD at +350

It’s fair to say those who had a hunch Micheel would win the 2003 PGA Championship weren’t justly rewarded. He ranked 169th in the world before his first and only career victory.

Rich Beem (2002)

Not listed, was part of FIELD at +1500

The same can be said for Beem and his 2002 victory, though the odds were at least slightly more profitable. He ranked 73rd in the world after winning The International just two weeks before. They were two of only three professional victories in his career.

David Toms (2001) +7000

Toms started off the run of long-shot winners in the early 2000s in the peak of Tiger vs. The Field. He ranked 20th in the world and worked his way up to eighth by the end of 2001.

PGA Championship fun facts

Most wins: 5 – Jack Nicklaus (stroke play era), Walter Hagen (match play era)

Youngest winner: Gene Sarazen (20 years, five months, 22 days) in 1922 at Oakmont Country Club

Youngest qualifier: Gene Sarazen (19 years old) in 1921

Oldest winner: Phil Mickelson (50 years old, 11 months) in 2021

Best comeback: John Mahaffey came back from seven strokes down entering the final round of the 1978 PGA Championship to win with a birdie on the second playoff hole over Tom Watson

Best career score relative to par: Tiger Woods (minus-46, 20 PGA Championships)

PGA Championship FAQ

Who qualifies for the PGA Championship?

The PGA Championship field is capped at 156 golfers each year. Those participants are selected on the following criteria:

  • Every former PGA Championship winner
  • The winners of the last five US Opens
  • Winners of the last five Masters
  • Winners of the last five Open Championships
  • The last three winners of The Players Championships
  • Current Senior PGA Champion
  • The top 15 finishers from the previous PGA Championship, including ties
  • Top 20 finishers from the last PGA Professional Championship (tournament for golf club professionals and teachers who are members of the Professional Golfers’ Association)
  • Top 70 from the official money standings on the PGA Tour for the period beginning one week before the previous year’s PGA Championship and ending two weeks before the current year’s tournament
  • Members of the most recent Ryder Cup teams for the USA and Europe, so long as they’ve remained in the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking the week prior to the PGA Championship
  • Any tournament winner co-sponsored or approved by the PGA Tour since the previous year’s PGA Championship

The PGA of America can invite additional players not included in the above criteria.

Vacancies can be filled by those ranked below 70th in the money standings.

Where is the PGA Championship this year?

Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma

What are the highest and lowest scores to win the PGA Championship?

Since the PGA Championship was switched from a match play format to stroke play in 1958, four champions have won at 1-over par, but none since 1976. Jay Hebert (1960), Julius Boros (1968), Gary Player (1972) and Dave Stockton (1976) have all done so.

Has anyone ever won back-to-back PGA Championships?

Koepka became the sixth person to win back-to-back PGA Championships with his 2018 and 2019 victories. He joined Denny Shute, Leo Diegel, Gene Sarazen, Tiger Woods and Walter Hagen in accomplishing the feat.

Hagen holds the all-time record with four straight victories from 1924-1927. He shares the all-time record with Nicklaus with five wins.