NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds 2026: Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs Favored
Jahmyr Gibbs enters the season as the favorite in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, and the case for the Detroit Lions running back isn't hard to make. Gibbs had 1,839 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns last season. Now David Montgomery and his 182 touches are gone from the backfield.
The latest OPOY odds from BetMGM Sportsbook have Gibbs at +550. Bijan Robinson (+900), Ja'Marr Chase (+1000), Puka Nacua (+1400), and Justin Jefferson (+1500) complete the top five.
Gibbs has separated himself from the field before Week 1, which makes +550 worth questioning rather than blindly following. A big part of that price is tied to work he hasn't received yet. Robinson, meanwhile, already turned 366 touches into an NFL-high 2,298 scrimmage yards last season and can be found at +900.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
The latest published BetMGM NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds 2026 board puts running backs and wide receivers firmly in control. That's not unusual anymore. No quarterback has won this award since Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
| Player | Position | NFL Offensive Player of the Year (BetMGM) |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions | RB | +550 |
| Bijan Robinson, Falcons | RB | +900 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals | WR | +1000 |
| Puka Nacua, Rams | WR | +1400 |
| Justin Jefferson, Vikings | WR | +1500 |
| Christian McCaffrey, 49ers | RB | +2000 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks | WR | +2000 |
| Saquon Barkley, Eagles | RB | +2000 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Colts | RB | +2000 |
| Derrick Henry, Ravens | RB | +2000 |
| James Cook, Bills | RB | +2500 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions | WR | +2500 |
| Omarion Hampton, Chargers | RB | +2500 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys | WR | +3000 |
| Malik Nabers, Giants | WR | +4000 |
| Nico Collins, Texans | WR | +4000 |
| George Pickens, Cowboys | WR | +4000 |
| A.J. Brown, Patriots | WR | +4000 |
| Rashee Rice, Chiefs | WR | +5000 |
| De'Von Achane, Dolphins | RB | +5000 |
| Drake London, Falcons | WR | +5000 |
| Ashton Jeanty, Raiders | RB | +5000 |
| DeVonta Smith, Eagles | WR | +5000 |
| Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers | WR | +6600 |
| Josh Allen, Bills | QB | +6600 |
These odds are subject to change*
For comparison, bettors can also track weekly NFL odds once the regular season begins.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting Favorites
There isn't an obvious weak candidate among the first five names. What separates them is what bettors have to assume will happen next. Gibbs is priced for a bigger workload, while Robinson already has the touches and needs more touchdowns.
Chase and Nacua aren't waiting for expanded roles at all. Jefferson is different. His +1500 price assumes last season was the exception rather than his new level.
Jahmyr Gibbs, +550
The 182 touches David Montgomery left behind are the reason Gibbs is +550 rather than simply another name near the top of the board. Gibbs was already plenty productive without them. He ran for 1,223 yards, caught 77 passes for another 616, and scored 18 times in 2025. His 5.0 yards per carry was actually the lowest mark of his three NFL seasons.
Detroit doesn't need to hand all of Montgomery's work to Gibbs for the numbers to get interesting. Even another 30 or 40 touches would give him a realistic shot at 2,000 scrimmage yards if his efficiency holds reasonably close to its current level.
Pacheco complicates that projection. Detroit didn't sign him to watch from the sideline, even though knee and back injuries have complicated his start with the team. The Lions also have good reason not to grind Gibbs down over 17 games. Bettors taking +550 are paying for increased volume while still guessing how large that increase will be.
Bijan Robinson, +900
How does a player pile up 2,298 yards from scrimmage and still open well behind Gibbs? Touchdowns explain most of it.
Robinson led the NFL in scrimmage yards last season, beating Gibbs by 459, and his 366 touches already give him the workload bettors are hoping Gibbs receives. Yet Robinson scored 11 times. Gibbs scored 18.
That seven-touchdown gap is a lot more important to this market than another 100 rushing yards would be. If Atlanta can get Robinson into the end zone more often without sacrificing his receiving work, +900 gives him a straightforward route past the favorite.
Ja'Marr Chase, +1000
Cincinnati threw at Chase 185 times last season, more than any other NFL receiver. That's enough opportunity. The difference between his past two seasons came after the catch and in the end zone. Chase went from 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024 to 1,412 and eight in 2025.
His Aug. 25 knee scare shouldn't be ignored, but Chase said he could have played through the hyperextension if Cincinnati had a game. Assuming that remains minor, +1000 is largely a bet on his touchdowns bouncing back. He doesn't need 200 targets to get there.
Puka Nacua, +1400
Nacua doesn't need a new role to justify +1400. He caught 129 passes for 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns in only 16 games last season. His 107.2 receiving yards per game led the NFL.
The question is whether another season around 1,700 yards will be enough. It might be if the touchdown total climbs. Compared with Gibbs, Nacua's case has fewer assumptions baked in, and bettors are getting a much larger number.
Justin Jefferson, +1500.
The +1500 price makes much more sense if 2025 is treated as the outlier. Jefferson had 84 catches for 1,048 yards and two touchdowns, easily his least productive full season.
There's plenty of evidence for a rebound. His 2022 OPOY season ended with 128 catches and 1,809 yards, and he topped 1,400 yards in four of his first five seasons. Getting back there would require more than better touchdown luck, though. His average fell from 14.9 yards per catch in 2024 to 12.5 last season.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleeper Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba winning last season after opening around +4000 is a useful reminder of how quickly this market can change. Cooper Kupp was around +8000 before his 2021 win.
There isn't much reason to dig down to +10000 just to call someone a sleeper. The three prices below are +2000, and all three belong to players who have already put together an OPOY-level season.
Christian McCaffrey, +2000
The number that matters most with McCaffrey isn't 2,126 scrimmage yards or 17 touchdowns. It's 450 touches.
San Francisco leaned on him that heavily last season, including 102 receptions, and he's now entering his age-30 season. The 49ers have already looked at ways to reduce that workload.
That creates an odd betting case at +2000. Fewer touches would help McCaffrey stay healthy, but they would also take away some of what made his 2025 numbers exceptional. He's already shown what an OPOY season looks like after winning the award in 2023. The question is how much work San Francisco is willing to give him to chase another.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, +2000
Smith-Njigba just won this award with 119 catches, an NFL-high 1,793 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. Twelve months later, the market is offering +2000 on a repeat.
History explains part of that discount. No player has won consecutive OPOY awards since Marshall Faulk completed three straight in 2001. But Smith-Njigba is only 24. Age-related decline isn't the issue here. Bettors are deciding how much they're willing to pay for history, saying the same player rarely wins twice.
Jonathan Taylor, +2000
Taylor scored 20 touchdowns last season. He also ran for 1,585 yards and finished just 37 yards short of 2,000 from scrimmage. By November, he was the OPOY favorite.
Then Indianapolis collapsed. The Colts lost nine of their final 10 games, and Taylor disappeared from the center of the award race with them.
That history makes +2000 interesting. Taylor doesn't need a breakout or a larger role. He needs Indianapolis to stay relevant long enough for 1,500 rushing yards and another big touchdown total to carry weight with voters.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
Bijan Robinson at +900 stands out among the NFL Offensive Player of the Year picks.
Gibbs is being priced for an increased workload. Robinson already handled 366 touches and turned them into an NFL-high 2,298 scrimmage yards. The missing piece was touchdowns, where Gibbs beat him 18-11.
At +900, Robinson doesn't need to be seven touchdowns better. He needs to close some of that gap while keeping his huge yardage advantage. That's enough for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year predictions to land on Atlanta's running back.
Pick: Bijan Robinson +900
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Winners History
Quarterbacks have effectively disappeared from this award. Patrick Mahomes was the last to win it in 2018. Since then, four wide receivers and three running backs have taken OPOY.
It's a very different market from NFL MVP odds, where quarterbacks still dominate. It also helps explain why Gibbs, Robinson, and Chase sit above every quarter.
Preseason prices are shown where reliable numbers could be verified. Older opening odds aren't consistently available and aren't estimated.
| Season | Winner | Position | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | +4000 |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley | RB | +2200 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | +1500 |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | WR | +1200 |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | WR | +8000 |
These odds are subject to change*
The recent opening prices are a useful warning against dismissing longer shots. Smith-Njigba and Kupp weren't preseason favorites. Both ended up producing seasons that made the starting price irrelevant.
How to Bet on NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds in 2026
An OPOY bet can sit open for months. That's the main difference from betting a Sunday spread or total. The wager isn't settled until the AP award is decided after the regular season.
That makes price shopping especially useful. Taking +2500 instead of +2000 doesn't change which player needs to win, but it changes the profit from $ 100 to $2,500.
Choose a legal sportsbook
Check which regulated sportsbooks operate in your state, then compare the OPOY board across multiple options. Futures prices can vary sharply. A player at +2000 on one app and +2500 on another is the same pick with a much different potential return.
Register an account
Open an account and complete the required identity and location checks. Sports betting rules vary by state, including minimum age and which operators are licensed there.
Check the welcome offer
Don't judge a welcome offer by the headline amount alone. Check whether it uses bonus bets, requires a qualifying wager, sets minimum odds, or expires quickly. Those details determine how useful the promotion actually is for an NFL futures bet.
Deposit funds
Fund the account using one of the sportsbook's accepted payment methods. Remember that an OPOY wager may remain unsettled until February, so any money placed on the market can be tied up for most of the NFL season.
Open NFL futures
Go to the NFL futures or awards menu and find Offensive Player of the Year. It usually appears near MVP and Rookie of the Year markets. Don't confuse OPOY with MVP. Recent voting history shows they're very different awards, especially for quarterbacks.
Select a player
Add the player to the bet slip, but check the price before moving on. Gibbs's shortening from around +750 earlier in the offseason to roughly +550 shows how quickly an awards market can move without a regular-season game being played.
Place the bet
Enter the stake and look at the potential profit before submitting the wager. Once it's accepted, the bet stays open until it wins, loses, or is otherwise settled under the sportsbook's house rules. That's a long wait compared with a weekly NFL bet, so stake size matters.
How to Read Odds to Win NFL Offensive Player of the Year
The odds to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year tell bettors two useful things at once: the potential return and roughly how strongly the sportsbook rates each player's chances.
Take Gibbs at +550. A $100 winning wager produces $550 in profit, with the original stake returned for a $650 total payout. Robinson at +900 would return $1,000 total from the same $100 stake.
Move down to a +2000 contender such as McCaffrey, and that $100 could produce $2,000 in profit, or $2,100 back in total. The larger payout comes with a lower implied chance of winning.
OPOY contenders usually have positive American odds before the season. If a player eventually moves to -150, the math flips. A bettor would risk $150 to earn $100 in profit.
Where to Bet on Offensive Player of the Year Odds
Legal sportsbooks post the current NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds before Week 1 and generally keep repricing the market as the season develops. Availability varies by state, and the same player won't always carry the same number everywhere.
Start by checking the best NFL betting sites available where you live. Bettors who wager mainly by phone can compare NFL betting apps, while current NFL betting promos are worth checking before opening a new account. Promotions change regularly, so the terms matter more than the headline offer.
Team performance isn't part of the OPOY stat line, but it can shape the award race. Detroit sits around +1800 in current Super Bowl odds and is -220 to make the playoffs. If Gibbs puts up 2,000 scrimmage yards for a division winner, that season is likely to attract more attention than the same numbers on a six-win team.
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NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds FAQ
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